Well, I never finished the final part of my VIFF ’09 film wrap-up last fall, and didn’t even do my annual Victoria Filmfest Daytrip report last month (other intended but missing posts: last year’s post-Oscars recap, SIFF trip (third of notes still lost in limbo), year-end picks for 2009 (and 2008), and on it goes…) But now it’s time for my annual pre-Oscars post. Tho’ have been keeping up with the brevity-challenging Twitter, kinda looked forward to the freedom of space in which to ramble on about my Oscar predix, which I always mean to list briefly, but it never turns out that way.
And so, a few references on hand — think there was a special Entertainment Weekly Oscar thing I missed but have last week’s Depp-covered predix issue, the usual IMDb and Academy of Motion Pictures Arts & Sciences sites, plus some bookmarked webpages come across in recent weeks (a favourite discovery: Steve Pond’s The Odds column) — and a goodly amount of viewing experience behind me, here we go…
Haven’t been following much on the leading-up-to-the-big-night hype (eg. producer Adam Shankman’s Twitter feed), but know that after the amusing opening in 2006 when past hosts declined a reprise (eg. Letterman wants to spend more time with Steve Martin’s kids, so they don’t turn out weird) and we were “stuck” with Jon Stewart (of the classic quip, “Scorsese: zero Oscars; Three 6 Mafia: one”), that there’s been no “who’s gonna host?” worrying on that front for a while. In fact, they’ve got double the hosts this year, pairing past Oscar nominee and current TV star Alec Baldwin with man-of-many-arts and past Oscars host Steve Martin (just in time to promote the DVD release of It’s Complicated?) There’ve been multiple hosts before, tho’ not since the ’70s and ’80s.
But the big change to the 82nd edition of the awards (known since last June) is the Academy’s decision to double the nominations in the Best Picture category to 10 (it’s been 5 since 1943’s 16th) — to get some higher-grossing mass-appeal titles in there to boost broadcast viewership (after all, making money’s about quantity, even when prizes are meant to honour quality?) If it does go up, it’ll be hard to prove it was because of this expansion, as Avatar likely would’ve impressed filmmakers enough to’ve nominated it in the top 5 regardless of its smashing box office records (due to repeat admissions, as with “regular” action/fantasy blockbusters appealing to young males, plus the increased ticket sales from 3D premium pricing — till a coupla weeks ago, think I was about the only moviegoer who hadn’t seen it.) And I’d say Sandra Bullock’s Best Actress nomination is a bigger draw to The Blind Side‘s audience who wouldn’t’ve tuned in otherwise than the Best Pic nod is (don’t need a Best Pic nom to win for acting.)
(By the way, The Blind Side is the only major nominee I haven’t seen. Saw the trailer a couple times at Tinseltown and reckoned it was a maybe-I’ll-see-it-second-run-if-it’s-double-billed-with-something-I-want-to-see. Since it’s not second run yet (in typical Warner Bros. fashion (did the same with long-outta-first-run Michael Clayton after it got Oscar noms) it was pulled from the Norm’s already-announced line-up and the Hollywood wasn’t allowed to have it till after the Oscars, so the distributor can get their box office percentage off a higher-priced ticket) and I had better late show options than going up to the Dunbar for a 9:30 this week, I just let it go. I did almost go to a Parents-with-Babies screening at the Rio at noon on Wednesday (wouldn’t go to a screening likely to have noise if I really cared about seeing the movie) but my parent-with-baby friend had a scheduling conflict so we’re just gonna meet up for Scrabble another time instead.)
Based on other major nominations like director and screenplay, and considering there’s now a separate Animated Feature category (wasn’t when Beauty and The Beast was the first (and only, till now) to break into the top category in ’91), if there had been only 5 Best Pic noms this year, I think it’s safe to say they’d’ve been: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious and Up in the Air. So good on the extra 5 for their recognition, but won’t 10 just make it a longer show? (or is that the idea? — 3 1/2 hours isn’t long enough to fit in all the commercials they wanna sell?)
The other big change this year is the voting procedure for this expanded category is now preferential on the final ballot. (Apparently preferential voting has been used to determine the nominee list in various categories for years, but not for the final vote on Best Picture since 1945 — when there were only 5 nominees, tho’ previously it had been used when there were up to 12.) So voters rank the nominated films in order of preference, from their favourite to least. Unless one film gets more than 50% of the votes up front (unlikely with a field of 10), there will be elimination rounds till there is a clear winner. In the first round of counting, the film getting the least #1 votes is eliminated. The ballots that had that film noted as #1 then have their #2 votes count as their top preference, and so on down the line. Which means that a movie with the most #1 votes to start won’t necessarily win in the end.
Okay, enough pre-amble — onto my picks! Actually, the voting procedure talk leads nicely into…
Picture
With the race seeming to be between the big-budget blockbuster Avatar and the big winner at pre-Oscar peer-review awards (including Producers Guild) The Hurt Locker, it comes down to how strongly voters feel for or against one or the other, and what voters choosing one of the other 8 pictures as their favourite choose as their 2nd and 3rd. (If I were voting, I’d rank the tension-filled visceral experience of The Hurt Locker at the top, probably followed by the sci-fi entertainment of District 9 and human questioning of A Serious Man, before even considering James Cameron’s gazillion-dollar computer-generated world. Yes, I was impressed by the look of Avatar, and appreciate the environment/indigenous peoples issues it brings up, and the way he draws us in right away through the disabled protagonist (like the characters and romance in Titanic get you to care before the disaster kicks in) — but it’s all pretty formula. Sure, District 9 used special effects, but it felt more original in its storytelling. And Up was more emotionally affecting.) Both Avatar and Locker have strong “fan bases” behind them, as does Basterds. So the question is, how polarising is special-effects-laden spectacle Avatar to supporters of the other nominees? Does the majority see it as an exciting future for movies? Or do actors, the largest member group within the Academy, see it as a threat to “real acting” and their livelihoods? With big category groups (whose membership crosses with that of the Academy) of producers, directors, writers and editors all awarding The Hurt Locker, I’m giving that one the edge.
Best Motion Picture: The Hurt Locker
Directing, Editing
Tho’ not so much in recent years, these awards usually go hand-in-hand (‘cept a couple years ago The Bourne Ultimatum did take Editing over No Country for Old Men — guess it moved faster and had more noticeable editing.) I’m going with the swell behind The Hurt Locker‘s Kathryn Bigelow for Best Director — 55 out of 61 years the Directors Guild winner (which she is) has gone on to win the Oscar, she did a great job with way less time and money than her ex-husband had to make Avatar, and, let’s face it, this is Hollywood’s chance to recognise a woman in this category for the first time (previous chance: Jane Campion for 1993’s The Piano, which probably would’ve won both top ones that year if veteran Steven Spielberg hadn’t been in the field with a holocaust picture; there was also Sofia Coppola in there (they gave her screenplay instead, cos it had to be sweep for the third LOTR) and the first female director nominated was Lina Wertmuller for Seven Beauties in 1976.) And then Editing will match up. The American Cinema Editors (who didn’t even nominate Avatar) gave their top honours to The Hurt Locker, which has a lot of edge-of-your-seat suspense general Academy voters will equate with editing.
Achievement in Directing: Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
Achievement in Film Editing: Bob Murawski, Chris Innis – The Hurt Locker
Writing
Screenplay category winners usually match up with Best Picture nominations, but with 10 Best Pic noms now, that probably gets narrowed down to what gets Best Pic. Even if Avatar does take the top prize, it’s not nominated for writing, so going with Writers Guild winner Locker over Basterds for Original and Up in the Air over Precious for Adapted. Like Juno, Little Miss Sunshine, Sideways and Lost in Transation, writing cats are where they can award the “little picture” that’s nominated for Best Picture but won’t get it. Since Precious is gonna get an acting award, this is Up in the Air‘s big category (and only) win. Also, Jason Reitman is better known in Hollywood than the other Adapted noms. But I’d be thrilled if District 9 got it! (tho’ hey, how ’bout that ****ing brilliant In the Loop ***k of a surprise nomination, eh?)
Original Screenplay: Mark Boal – The Hurt Locker
Adapted Screenplay: Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner – Up in the Air
Acting
Okay, I won’t harp on about how much I love Jeff Bridges and feel he’s been under-rated for too long (or how disappointed I was my Dude bobblehead ordered in early January from the cool folks at Lebowski Fest didn’t arrive in time to bring to Oscar Night — emailed a few weeks ago and turned out they had my address as Vancouver, AB (don’t postal codes mean anything?) but even so, shouldn’t it’ve gotten here by now?) But for once the “it’s his turn” career award will be for a truly deserving turn (unlike, say, a mannered “hoo-ha!” perf like Pacino’s.) Also pretty much a lock is multilingual Christoph Waltz and single-monikered Mo’Nique (last one to win: Cher), who’ve picked up just about every respective supporting acting award there is. But is it really gonna be Sandra Bullock for Best Actress? ‘Fraid it looks that way. I didn’t even know she was on the radar for anything till she won a Golden Globe (for drama — Meryl Streep won on the comedy side, where Bullock was also nominated for The Proposal.) Not that I think a group of 80 foreign reporters based in Hollywood that separates dramatic and comedic performances should be a predictor for an industry association of over 5,000 that doesn’t, but I know it gets attention. (Something else getting attention tonight — Bullock just won the Razzie for worst performance in All About Steve. Kudos to her for being a good sport and one of the few stars to’ve actually been present to claim the embarrassing prize — if she wins the Oscar, she’ll be the first to ever win both prizes in the same weekend.) Then she won the SAG award, up against the same noms as Oscars — think that’s the clincher. Unlike my thinking Streep’d finally get a third (first in over 20 years) for Doubt (I changed by predictive vote at the bar last year, by the way, so counted the Winslet win on my score), Julie & Julia is a comedy, and they just don’t give these golden guys for leads in comedies (supporting, occasionally — right, Alan Arkin and Kevin Kline?) Other noms for Best Actress are an unknown, a near-unknown foreigner (who didn’t channel Edith Piaf), and a foreigner with a previous win. Bullock’s now a producer too, right? And well-liked in Hollywood. And this role was a change from the romantic comedies she’s known for — don’t they like to reward a stretch? (eg. Julia Roberts in a good drama, Denzel Washington playing a bad guy.)
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role: Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role: Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role: Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role: Mo’Nique – Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire
Cinematography, Art Direction
The American Society of Cinematographers went with the beautifully chilling B&W photography of The White Ribbon over colourful Avatar and gritty The Hurt Locker, but a foreign language film (also nominated in that category) is probably unlikely to win over Best Picture nominees with the wider voting group. I’m guessing they’ll go with “real” cinematography over computerised spectacle and choose docu-like Locker over old-style Basterds. I’d use the same reasoning against Avatar for art direction, but then which of the other noms would have the weight? Going by number of other-category noms, Nine has the most with 4 (that many?), followed by The Young Victoria with 3. If the latter gets Costumes, they could give the razzle-dazzle musical something here. Nah, Cinematography will go to real cameras over computers, but voters will accept the technology in creating the amazing look of Avatar.
Achievement in Cinematography: Barry Ackroyd – The Hurt Locker
Achievement in Art Direction: Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg (Art Direction), Kim Sinclair (Set Decoration) – Avatar
Costumes, Makeup
All period or fantasy pieces in these cats (or possibly both, in the case of Nine‘s costumes.) Tho’ Coco Before Chanel is partially about creating fashion and Sandy Powell’s already won twice, think more-nominated and bigger-skirted The Young Victoria and Powell’s name will triumph. In makeup, I’d guess Il Divo (which I haven’t seen) covers more years and therefore requires aging makeup more than The Young Victoria, but it’s foreign so who’s seen it, and up against Avatar in 3 other tech categories, this’ll be where Star Trek can get something (I didn’t even recognise Eric Bana in that movie.) In recent years, sci-fi/fantasy gets the makeup award too — tho’ exceptions have been (uh, like the other noms this year) period biopics (La Vie en Rose and Frida.)
Achievement in Costume Design: Sandy Powell – The Young Victoria
Achievement in Makeup: Barney Burman, Mindy Hall, Joel Harlow – Star Trek
Foreign Language Film
When I initially learned of the nominations for Best Foreign Language Film, I thought Michael Haneke, one of my favourite directors, would be the obvious winner (think I even assumed that since reading about his latest at VIFF and when it opened this winter.) The White Ribbon also has another nomination outside of the foreign cat, which you’d think would bode well for it (Cinematography — tho’ recent Foreign nom Pan’s Labyrinth also had multiple noms (even taking Cinematography) and didn’t win.) But after seeing it, I wondered if it might be too coldly Hanekeish for American voters compared to the Godfather-like (protagonist reluctantly drawn into the mafia) Un Prophète. The former won the Palm d’Or at Cannes, the latter the Grand Prix. In America, the German production won the Golden Globe but the French was also in the news for playing Sundance. Both have North American distribution from Sony Pictures. As does a third nominee (tho’ it isn’t out yet) — the Argentinian El Secreto de Sus Ojos (The Secret in Their Eyes). Last year I debated between Waltz With Bashir and The Class, and then the Japanese Departures won — probably cos the other “known” ones split the vote. Argentinian film is hot now. The director, Juan José Campanella, has done a lot of American TV, so many voters probably know him (including, according to the IMDb, an Oscar host on 30 Rock.) Even EW says to look for an upset by the decades-spanning crime drama. Gah, do I go with it too?
Best Foreign Language Film: El Secreto de Sus Ojos (Argentina)
Documentary, Animated Features
I’ve actually seen 4 out of 5 noms in both these categories, but don’t think you have to’ve seen any this year to predict the winners. I’d say The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers is the best of the feature docs, but The Cove had controversy surrounding its filming and getting it screened in Japan and with that, press, (the corn growers’ campaign against Food, Inc. has come too late) and has won everything else so far, including Producers, Directors, Writers, Editors groups. Plus it used a lot of Hollywood technology to get filmed, has a name producer (Fisher Stevens) and featured a guy who worked on Flipper and has done other acting (ie. familiar with voters.) And in the Animated Feature category — Up also has a Best Picture nom. Need I say more? (By the way, Mary and Max was missing from the nominees list.)
Best Documentary Feature: The Cove
Best Animated Feature Film: Up
Short Films
I’ve actually seen all the Live Action Short nominations this year. Wasn’t too impressed, actually (by the films or the DVD presentation.) Tho’ I liked the Aussie Miracle Fish best, I’m going with The New Tenants to win, cos it has some amusing dialogue and recognisable actors (Vincent D’Onofrio, Helen Hanft.) The evening the Animated Short noms were playing, I chose to go with my originally-planned film (which, since my initial scheduling, had garnered 11 Genie nominations) — reckoning I’d rather see Polytechnique than more muddy-looking DVD, and ‘sides, the latest Wallace & Gromit will likely win, right? Or has Aardman gotten enough and they wanna give it to someone else for a change? There’s buzz around Logorama, which disses corporate culture and is set in L.A. (where I imagine most Academy voters are.) Watched a clip of it online and wonder how many of those companies whose logos are featured would sue if they knew. Could they even show a clip of the film on the Oscars show without it being copyright infringement? Maybe voters will wanna make a statement regarding fair use or something, but the animation isn’t as impressive as claymation. Both sets of shorts are playing again tomorrow afternoon, but hey, I’ve gotta get my hair and nails ready for Oscar Night (even if I’m probably just gonna wear schlumpy Dude-like attire.) As for the documentary shorts, I read good descriptions online written by someone who saw them all at the MOMA. EW says the disabled Zimbabwean singer one will win over the last days of an Ohio GM plant. But after the Haiti earthquake (was the Chilean one before or after voting had closed?) maybe the one about China’s would be more topical than American plant closures (Michael Moore’s Roger & Me showed the same thing in ’89.) I know the Berlin rabbits one has a distributor and seems to be a fave of those who’ve seen all the noms, tho’ they don’t think it has a chance. It’s a toss-up, really, isn’t it?
Best Live Action Short Film: The New Tenants
Best Animated Short Film: A Matter of Loaf and Death
Best Documentary Short Subject: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Music
If the song from Crazy Heart doesn’t win, what’s the point of this category? Then again, the song from the Mambo Kings, even more intricately a part of that movie, didn’t win (and double noms from The Bodyguard and Aladdin didn’t split — Aladdin’s “A Whole New World” won) and the world keeps on turning. Hadn’t even heard of the French movie the one nom’s from, let alone the song (so it must be good, if unlikely to win.) Tho’ I enjoyed The Princess and the Frog and its songs, none really stuck in my mind. And not much of the music from Nine was truly memorable, except maybe a couple songs from the stage show heard over and over in the promos, which wouldn’t be eligible here. So, think “The Weary Kind” is safe. For score, I remember liking the music in the quirky Fantastic Mr. Fox and touching Up. I reckon a Best Pic nom has a better chance. Don’t remember music in The Hurt Locker, and Avatar‘s was typical button-pushing Horner (who’s already got 2 golden boys from Cameron’s last spectacle.)
Achievement in Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)” – Crazy Heart
Achievement in Music (Original Score): Michael Giacchino – Up
Visual Effects, Sound
And, cos it’s past my bedtime, everything else to Avatar, right? As EW points out, the sound awards went to different films last year (tho’ as I recall, that’s cos Slumdog Millionaire was only nominated for one of them.) This year the big two are up for both. Sound Mixing is for a film’s overall sound (the Cinema Audio Society’s mixing award went to Locker), and Editing is for aural effects (Motion Picture Sound Editors’ gave Avatar their prize.) Apparently the MPSE award usually lines up with the Oscar — it’s been suggested that’s cos members of the Academy’s sound branch vote as they did previously, and everyone else just skips those categories outside their expertise. Whatever. I’m thinking the dramatic tension and gritty reality of Iraq comes thru in The Hurt Locker‘s terrific sound, as with photography and film editing, as more impressive than the lushness of the computer-generated made-up world of Pandora. If Director and Picture split, maybe sound could too — Mixing to Locker and Editing to Avatar? Nah, probably both to Avatar. I mean, The Hurt Locker. Er…
Achievement in Visual Effects: Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham, Andrew R. Jones – Avatar
Achievement in Sound Mixing: Paul N.J. Ottosson, Ray Beckett – The Hurt Locker
Achievement in Sound Editing: Christopher Boyes, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle – Avatar
So what does that make my count? 6 for Locker and only 3 for Avatar. Is that too lop-sidedly wishful thinking? Hmm. And only the one for Tarantino’s Basterds? And really nothing for Haneke? Will I change that one on my ballot at the bar?
Now all that remains is finding out who actually wins. Meeting some friends to watch the festivities unfold. Won’t have my Dude bobblehead (I said I wasn’t gonna harp on that — sorry) but might wear some abiding apparel. I forget what whiskey brand Bad Blake drinks, but I’m guessing it’s cheap, so will toast his win with a White Russian. Won’t be partaking in any blue drinks, unless it’s gin from a Blue Sapphire bottle.
Will they present the acting nominees like last year, with that sorta awkward but sorta nice past winners paying tribute to each current nominee thing? Will they let the short film winners actually come on stage? (remember when Canadian Chris Landreth won a few years ago and he had to say his thankyous from a back aisle?) Will the Hurt Locker producer who sent the against-the-rules email to the wrong person and was disinvited be mentioned? Will Jack Black and Will Farrell do another hilarious musical number? Who’ll get the most applause in the In Memorium montage? (John Hughes? Michael Jackson? former Academy head Karl Malden?) Of the presenters selected to attract a younger audience, will I have even heard of any? I read that presenters have been rehearsing “and the winner is…” instead of “and the Oscar goes to…” (why?!)
Guess we’ll find out soon enough. G’night, skellybots.
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