Oscars Predix 2016

Okay, time to gather my thoughts ahead of Oscar Night – and share them here in my annual Oscars Predix blog post.  Cos I like to plan out how I’m going to bet at the bar, and there’re still a coupla friends who can’t join me there who may check in here.  I started gathering info ahead of Oscar Eve — been checking in at The Wrap the past few weeks for buzz and guild winners and such, and this week made my annual Entertainment Weekly purchase (over 7 bucks now?! “Win Your Oscar Pool” is in rather small print cos it’s an “Apocalyptic Double Issue” on The Walking Dead – which I’ve heard of but never seen (sometimes I get series on DVD from the library and do the binge-watching thing – got some Nordic noir on hold now) – s’pose the days of EW Oscar covers are gone – tho’ they did go back to including all categories this year) and even got around to doing the software update on my iPad (think it was still on 8.1 or 2 or something, but latest is 9.2.1) so could run an Oscars app to reference past years’ noms/winners — intending to move from thinking to writing well ahead of my usual night-before rush.  But we’ll see when this actually gets posted (still no home internet, so composing offline in spare-moment dribs and drabs to transfer later – which might be just as well as my manual dexterity is not what it once was, and too much typing just makes things worse – am guessing it’ll be late Saturday night anyway by the time I’m done.)

When the nominations were announced back on January 14, I’d seen a fair number of major-category nominees (including 5 of the 9 Best Picture titles), and since then have filled in quite a few more on the checklist.  The Rio brought back some Golden Globe noms in December and I caught a coupla other likely contenders on a visit to Portland in the new year (tho’ missed a few more had planned to see there), then VIFF’s Vancity Theatre’s done a few random one-offs, along with their annual presentation of shorts noms (in two categories – caught the third on a Seattle overnighter), plus have seen a few on DVD.  There is one category for which I’ve seen zero of the five noms (for once it’s not Visual Effects or Documentary Shorts!) but overall have done pretty well.  ‘Course I always say you don’t have to’ve seen ’em all to guess which’ll win — but it sure helps!

With the new (well, a few years now) nominations process meant to produce 5 to 10 Best Picture nominees, this year’s list has 8 titles – and no obvious frontrunner. (BTW, if there are any typos here, blame TextEdit’s auto-correct — especially annoying with names, which I’ve typed while looking at screengrabs of the AMPAS website — though apparently, except for acting categories, ballots only list the film titles now, so I wonder how that affects people voting.)  The nominating is done by each branch (costume designers nominate for Costume Design, etc.), but all members (currently 6,261) get to vote in all categories for the winners (s’posedly only ones in which they’ve seen all the nominees (honour system) – see Oscilloscope Laboratories’ Daniel Berger’s guest column in The Hollywood Reporter: “Watch the F–king Movies!”)  Best Pic is the only category with more than 5 nominees (only one with fewer is Makeup) and the only one that’s voted on preferentially – everything else, voters mark the one they think is best, but for the top prize they rank in order of preference.  With a close race, it’s unlikely one film will have 50% +1 of first-choice votes, so voters’ second and third choices will become more important in the final consensus if their first choice wasn’t one of the frontrunners.

PICTURE

Nominees:
> The Big Short (Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, Producers)
> Bridge of Spies (Steven Spielberg, Marc Platt and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers)
> Brooklyn (Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers)
> Mad Max: Fury Road (Doug Mitchell and George Miller, Producers)
> The Martian (Simon Kinberg, Ridley Scott, Michael Schaefer and Mark Huffam, Producers)
> The Revenant (Arnon Milchan, Steve Golin, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Mary Parent and Keith Redmon, Producers)
> Room (Ed Guiney, Producer)
> Spotlight (Michael Sugar, Steve Golin, Nicole Rocklin and Blye Pagon Faust, Producers

Thanks to getting Bridge of Spies on DVD (one of the ones I’d planned to see in Portland but didn’t), have seen all the noms this year. Think my personal faves from the noms would be The Martian and Spotlight. With no clear frontrunner, this could end up being the biggest surprise of the night. Considering Ridley Scott and Steven Spielberg didn’t get Directing nods, and Room is more a “small” picture, at the time the nominations were announced, would say that top-number-of-noms technical spectacles The Revenant (12) and Mad Max: Fury Road (10) and ensemble-cast issue-driven critical darlings Spotlight and The Big Short were the top contenders. As various guild award winners were announced, didn’t seem to help narrow it down – PGA went with The Big Short, SAG gave their Ensemble Cast award to Spotlight (actors make up largest contingent of Academy voters), and the DGA chose The Revenant. Spotlight had been atop all the critics’ lists at the end of 2015, but was that in large part because writers relate to journalism? (Certainly was a great movie about investigative journalists working – though I wonder how many film critics actually work for newspapers anymore, and how many of those work from home as opposed to going by the newsroom every day and hanging with reporters.) And there was a lotta love for George Miller and Mad Max Fury Road on the year-end lists. I tell myself I’ve gotta remember to pay better attention to who wins PGA and DGA awards, and how closely those tend to match up with Oscar (eg. when Oscar expanded to 10 Best Pic noms, so did PGA, which also uses same preferential voting, and every top Oscar since has won (or tied) the PGA; only 7 times in 67 years has the DGA winner not won the Directing Oscar) – not make the same mistake I did last year with Boyhood and Birdman. But then again, there’s momentum. Voting didn’t start till about a month after the nominations were announced, so though voters had plenty of time to attend member screenings or watch their free DVDs and decide on their favourites before the 12 days of voting started (only wrapped up this past Tuesday, the 23rd), they also had time to be influenced by other awards and ad campaigns for 2015 films not being released widely till January/February. I saw Spotlight in early December, but The Revenant’s wide release came after the noms were known. The Big Short took PGA and WGA awards, but from what I’ve been reading, The Revenant‘s win with the DGA, then the BAFTA and ASC just as Oscar voting started – it’s been surging. It could win lots of other-category Oscars (something most Best Pic winners do – but Big Short could get Adapted Screenplay and Editing), but it doesn’t have a screenplay nod (also something most Best Pic winners not only have but win – last to win without was Titanic, and only The Sound of Music and Hamlet before that.) It’s an exciting cinematic experience, but it’s not an “issue picture” like The Big Short (housing crisis) or Spotlight (church secrets) – and the Academy tends to like those, right? (eg. 12 Years a Slave over Gravity, The Hurt Locker over Avatar.) Stick to history of guild-winner match-ups or heed the latest buzz? Gonna go with history/stats…

Best Picture Prediction: The Big Short

DIRECTING

Nominees:
> The Big Short (Adam McKay)
> Mad Max: Fury Road (George Miller)
> The Revenant (Alejandro G. Iñárritu)
> Room (Lenny Abrahamson)
> Spotlight (Tom McCarthy)

Think Miller may have been the early favourite with all the critics’ raves for his exciting genre entertainment/Mad Max reboot, but Iñárritu’s hot (won last year) and The Revenant was a bold and brilliantly done big-screen survival adventure too.  Baking heat and sand or freezing cold and ice? – the latter’s a more likely Best Pic winner.  The Big Short was a zingy piece of zeitgeist with fast ‘n’ fun meta stuff like direct-to-camera/audience address by a self-aware narrator and celebrity asides to explain derivatives, but that might count more in editing or screenplay, seeing as Iñárritu won the DGA award (first director to ever win that prize two years in a row.)  Even if Best Pic is unclear, think Best Director is.  Only other directors to win back-to-back were Joseph L. Mankiewicz (1949’s Letter to Three Wives & 1950’s All About Eve) and John Ford (won 4 in total, including 1940’s The Grapes of Wrath & 1941’s How Green Was My Valley.)

Best Directing Prediction: The Revenant

WRITING

Nominees:

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
> Bridge of Spies (Written by Matt Charman and Ethan Coen & Joel Coen)
> Ex Machina (Written by Alex Garland)
> Inside Out (Screenplay by Peter Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley; Original Story by Peter Docter, Ronnie del Carmen)
> Spotlight (Written by Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy)
> Straight Outta Compton (Screenplay by Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff; Story by S. Leigh Savidge & Alan Wenkus and Andrea Berloff)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
> The Big Short (Screenplay by Charles Randolph and Adam McKay)
> Brooklyn (Screenplay by Nick Hornby)
> Carol (Screenplay by Phyllis Nagy)
> The Martian (Screenplay by Drew Goddard)
> Room (Screenplay by Emma Donoghue)

Even if the WGA membership/screenplay eligibility and therefore noms don’t often totally line up with Oscar (this year WGA Original Screenplay noms included Sicario and Trainwreck while Oscar had Ex Machina and Inside Out; majority of WGA’s Adapted category was from non-fiction books (the big-screen reimagining of Michael Lewis’ The Big Short also on Oscar’s list, plus a Trumbo bio and Aaron Sorkin’s exhilarating take on Walter Isaacsson’s Steve Jobs), the screenplay categories usually line up with the top coupla Best Pic contenders, right?  Unless the obvious leader lines up with Adapted, in which case this is a good place to honour a smaller indie Best Pic nom with Original (eg. Her, Juno, Little Miss Sunshine, Lost in Translation.)  This might’ve been voters’ chance to show love/make a statement for Straight Outta Compton (with original NWA members as producers, surely a selective history (tho’ focus on friendships/betrayals and political/freedom-of-speech/not-much-has-changed stuff works), but a nonetheless involving, well-crafted and well-acted biopic w/strong sense of time and place) ‘cept the nominated writers so white.  With Best Pic contenders split between Original and Adapted, both being “issue” pics, and the WGA wins for both, these seem pretty solid.

Best Original Screenplay Predication: Spotlight
Best Adapted Screenplay Prediction: The Big Short

ACTING

Nominees:

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
> Bryan Cranston in Trumbo
> Matt Damon in The Martian
> Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant
> Michael Fassbender in Steve Jobs
> Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
> Cate Blanchett in Carol
> Brie Larson in Room
> Jennifer Lawrence in Joy
> Charlotte Rampling in 45 Years
> Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
> Christian Bale in The Big Short
> Tom Hardy in The Revenant
> Mark Ruffalo in Spotlight
> Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies
> Sylvester Stallone in Creed

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
> Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight
> Rooney Mara in Carol
> Rachel McAdams in Spotlight
> Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl
> Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs

Well the lead acting cats this year seem pretty clear from the mass of other awards, eh? (and I’ve seen all but one of the nom’d performances – skipped 45 Years at VIFF as expected it’d be back, but so far has only been at still-won’t-pay-money-to Sineplex, and tho’ I’d planned to see it in Seattle, opted to catch the Doc Shorts instead.)  First-time nominee Brie Larson’s won just about everything for her heartbreaking turn as a determined captive mum in Room (Blanchett’s got two Oscars already, Lawrence one, this is Ronan’s second nom, Rampling’s got a bunch of César noms.) Plus the “it’s his turn” thing for (has also won everything so far this season) Leo (this is his 6th Oscar nom – 4th for Lead Actor, also has 1 for Supporting, plus 1 as Best Pic producer for The Wolf of Wall Street) has lined up nicely with a meaty role (very little speaking, a lot of pained breathing) as the titular fur-trapper left for dead in The Revenant (the anonymous director in EW’s “secret ballot” feature this year reasons: “Any vegetarian who will eat a raw bison liver for art has my vote”) – kinda like Jeff Bridges with Crazy Heart, it’s a “deserving” example of his work.  The SAG’s noms don’t quite line up with Oscar’s this year in any of the four categories, but it’s Supporting Actor in particular that’s way off – only Christian Bale and Mark Rylance are on both lists, and someone else (Idris Elba for Beasts of No Nation – was that even released here?) won, so can’t be a predictor here.  Mark Rylance may’ve won a BAFTA at home for his quiet loner spy, but apparently didn’t actively participate in the Bridge of Spies campaign stateside, so that lessens his chances.  Against sentimental fave Stallone reprising his Rocky role 40 years after originating it (nom’d in ’76 for Original Screenplay and Lead Actor, plus the popular pic won top prize over All the President’s Men, Network and Taxi Driver.)  No SAG nom, but Oscar loves a comeback.  And tho’ the white guy got the nod, it is a way of rewarding Creed – another well-made, well-acted movie whose black director (very talented Ryan Coogler – compare the contrasting camerawork and approach in the two main fight sequences with what’s going on with the character at each) and star (very talented Michael B. Jordan – beautifully understated as young man figuring out who he is) went unrecognised by the Academy (see Creed, but also see their previous collaboration, Fruitvale Station.)  Glad to see Spotlight standout Ruffalo nom’d, but he’ll have to wait a bit longer.  In the ladies’ supporting cat, Oscar’s got Jennifer Jason Leigh where SAG had Helen Mirren (for Trumbo – also nom’d as lead in Woman in Gold), but I think it’s between the Danish Vikander and near-unrecognisable Winslet.  Every time I’ve seen Vikander (only Scandinavian films before last year: Pure, A Royal Affair, Hotell), she’s different.  Guess the fx got nom’d for Ex Machina instead of her, but voters might consider her burgeoning AI in that as well as her passionate artist spouse (the best part of The Danish Girl) when marking their Oscar ballot.  She won the SAG and Winslet’s already got a golden guy, so assuming Vikander stays on her roll.

Best Actor Prediction: Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Actress Prediction: Brie Larson
Best Supporting Actor Prediction: Sylvester Stallone
Best Supporting Actress Prediction: Alicia Vikander

CINEMATOGRAPHY, EDITING, FX

Nominees:

CINEMATOGRAPHY
> Carol (Ed Lachman)
> The Hateful Eight (Robert Richardson)
> Mad Max: Fury Road (John Seale)
> The Revenant (Emmanuel Lubezki)
> Sicario (Roger Deakins)

FILM EDITING
> The Big Short (Hank Corwin)
> Mad Max: Fury Road (Margaret Sixel)
> The Revenant (Stephen Mirrione)
> Spotlight (Tom McArdle)
> Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey)

VISUAL EFFECTS
> Ex Machina (Andrew Whitehurst, Paul Norris, Mark Ardington and Sara Bennett)
> Mad Max: Fury Road (Andrew Jackson, Tom Wood, Dan Oliver and Andy Williams)
> The Martian (Richard Stammers, Anders Langlands, Chris Lawrence and Steven Warner)
> The Revenant (Rich McBride, Matthew Shumway, Jason Smith and Cameron Waldbauer)
> Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould)

Though Editing is often tied in with Directing and Picture, Cinematography isn’t necessarily.  But I would think that it’s likely to go to something with a nom for Best Pic.  Which would leave out Ed Lachman’s beautiful work on Carol (previously nominated for Todd Hayne’s equally sumptuous Far From Heaven), the great Roger Deakins (this is his 13th Oscar nod, and 2nd working with Canadian Denis Villeneuve), and Robert Richardson (who’s worked with the likes of Oliver Stone, John Sayles, Martin Scorsese, and Robert Redford, as well as Quentin Tarantino – this is his 9th nom) and famously used special lenses from the ’60s for an authentic return to Ultra Panavision 70.  My 70mm viewing at a sold-out Hollywood Theatre in Portland (where Tarantino himself had been a few days before, raving about the projection) has gotta rank up there with my all-time great cinema experiences.  Hmm, I wonder if Hateful Eight could grab an old-school appreciation award here as well as for score (will get to that below.)  No, I think it’s going to go to 5-time (including this year) ASC winner Chivo again – super DP Emmanuel Lubezki won the last two (for Iñárritu’s Birdman last year, Cuarón’s Gravity year before – and 5 other Oscar noms before those) but I think he’s still on a roll.  (Speaking of rolls – of film, that is! – I couldn’t find any Tisch School blog post this year about 2015 films shot on film, but I did find a Filmmaker Magazine article: ~64 Films Released in 2015 Shot on 35mm – apparently Spielberg’s the only director of this year’s Best Pic noms to’ve shot on film.)  Considering the Editing category (and the fact that tho’ the noms are decided by editors, all members vote on the final ballot), I’m guessing it’s between the two Best Pic noms that “look the most edited” – The Big Short and Mad Max.  If we find early on it’s the former, could be surer sign it’ll win the top prize.  But I’m leaning towards Max getting some love further down the ballot, including here.  (Sixel is apparently Miller’s wife, having worked with him before on Happy Feet and Babe: Pig in the City.)  And, for once, I’ve actually seen all the Visual Effects nominees (maybe cos they’re not all about comic book characters and hobbits and include Best Pic noms.)  Here I think it’ll be between Best Pic noms Mad Max (fast-paced post-apocalyptic craziness throughout) and The Revenant (that one scene everyone who’s seen it talks about, with the scarily realistic mamma bear), but wonder if the latest Star Wars could sneak in there, as this is the only category of its five noms general voters may deem worthy if they wanna show love for the keeping-to-the-original-spirit sequel/reboot.

Best Cinematography Prediction: The Revenant
Best Film Editing Prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Visual Effects Prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road

DESIGN, MAKEUP

Nominees:

PRODUCTION DESIGN
> Bridge of Spies (Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo and Bernhard Henrich)
> The Danish Girl (Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Michael Standish)
> Mad Max: Fury Road (Production Design: Colin Gibson; Set Decoration: Lisa Thompson)
> The Martian (Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Celia Bobak)
> The Revenant (Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Hamish Purdy)

COSTUME DESIGN
> Carol (Sandy Powell)
> Cinderella (Sandy Powell)
> The Danish Girl (Paco Delgado)
> Mad Max: Fury Road (Jenny Beavan)
> The Revenant (Jacqueline West)

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
> Mad Max: Fury Road (Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega and Damian Martin)
> The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared (Love Larson and Eva von Bahr)
> The Revenant (Siân Grigg, Duncan Jarman and Robert Pandini)

Have seen all these noms except Cinderella (put the DVD on hold at the library, but it’s not even in circulation yet.)  The design categories’ winners usually involve the especially beautiful and elaborate, whether it’s period pieces or the fantastical (and can even go to work outside of Best Pic noms, especially Costumes.)  Mad Max is pretty fantastical and could sweep all three.  Or could 12-time nominee (including 2 this year) and 3-time winner Sandy Powell triumph for Carol?

Best Production Design Prediction:  Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Costume Design Prediction: Carol
Best Makeup & Hairstyling Prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road

SOUND

Nominees:

SOUND EDITING
> Mad Max: Fury Road (Mark Mangini and David White)
> The Martian (Oliver Tarney)
> The Revenant (Martin Hernandez and Lon Bender)
> Sicario (Alan Robert Murray)
> Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Matthew Wood and David Acord)

SOUND MIXING
> Bridge of Spies (Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Drew Kunin)
> Mad Max: Fury Road (Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff and Ben Osmo)
> The Martian (Paul Massey, Mark Taylor and Mac Ruth)
> The Revenant (Jon Taylor, Frank A Montaño, Randy Thom and Chris Duesterdiek)
> Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio and Stuart Wilson)

Gee, seen all the sound noms this year too (again with no Transformers or Marvel entries and a majority also Best Pic noms.)  What have I determined before? – that Mixing is for a film’s overall sound (Cinema Audio Society awarded The Revenant this year, in a field that included Mad Max and Star Wars), and Editing is for aural effects (as of this writing, Motion Picture Sound Editors have not yet announced their awards, but they have so many categories, it’s hard to compare.)  So post-apocalyptic vehicles and explosions of Mad Max or wild west wilderness of The Revenant?  If the latter wins one of these, could give it a better chance at Best Pic.  Ah, gonna go with Mad Max again for all these down-ballot cats.

Best Sound Editing Prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Sound Mixing Prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road

MUSIC

Nominees:

ORIGINAL SCORE
> Bridge of Spies (Thomas Newman)
> Carol (Carter Burwell)
> The Hateful Eight (Ennio Morricone)
> Sicario (Jóhann Jóhannsson)
> Star Wars: The Force Awakens (John Williams)

ORIGINAL SONG
> “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (Music and Lyric by The Weeknd, Ahmad Balshe, Jason Daheala Quenneville and Stephan Moccio)
> “Manta Ray” from Racing Extinction (Music by J. Ralph, Lyric by Anohni)
> “Simple Song #3” from Youth (Music and Lyric by David Lang)
> “Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground (Music and Lyric by Diane Warren and Lady Gaga)
> “Writing’s On The Wall” from Spectre (Music and Lyric by Jimmy Napes and Sam Smith)

Ah, except for 13-times-nom’d Thomas Newman (12 for score plus a song – lost to Red Violin year of American Beauty) up for Bridge of Spies, none of the music noms are also up for Best Picture.  There were two scores of these 5 that stood out for me – Jóhannsson’s for Sicario (it’s like it grew from the scary droning sound of the helicopters – I know I mentioned his work on Bill Morrison’s The Miners’ Hymns when he was nom’d last year (for less-memorable The Theory of Everything), but Sicario’s score really reminded me of that) and Morricone’s for The Hateful Eight.  Tho’ the Italian composer’s career includes a wide range of motion picture scores (a fave: The Mission) and he has worked with Tarantino before, he’s probably most known for those Leone westerns (everyone knows his theme from The Good, The Bad and the Ugly), and all that comes together so well in The Hateful Eight, think this’ll be the chance to honour him with a competitive Oscar win (this is his 6th Oscar nom, and he did get an honourary award in 2007.)  So, yeah, sentimental favourite there, methinks.  As for Song, this is the only category this year for which I’m zero for five in seeing the nominees.  So I’ve listened to the songs online, though am not sure how they were used in their respective movies (as part of the story or just over the closing credits?) – except I understand the classical-music song from Youth is s’posed to’ve haunted a character all his life and figures in an emotional ending.  Of course the songs from The Mambo Kings and That Thing You Do also figured prominently in their film’s stories but they didn’t win.  Interesting that there are two noms from documentaries this year – apparently that’s only happened 4 times before (a quick check reveals all in last decade – Glenn Campbell: I’ll Be Me last year, the U2 song from Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom the year before, the one sung by Scarlet Johansson at the end of Chasing Ice the year before that (which was written by J. Ralph, also co-nominee for an enviro doc this year), and Melissa Etheridge won in 2007 for (another enviro doc) An Inconvenient Truth.) The Academy’s apparently not even including performances of all 5 nominees in the show, dropping the lesser-known artists from even appearing (c’mon – not everyone can be Lady Gaga.)  At least give us a chance to hear them – why not a little taste of each presented together, one after the other?  Now-8-times-nominated Diane Warren’s past entries are all pretty mainstream-rock-radio-sounding stuff (think “I Don’t Wanna Miss A Thing” (performed by Aerosmith) from Armageddon, “Because You Loved Me” (Celine Dion) from Up Close & Personal, “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now” (Starship) from Mannequin), but seems her teaming with Gaga on the campus rape doc The Hunting Ground has produced a harrowing song that will likely win.

Best Original Score Prediction: The Hateful Eight
Best Original Song Prediction: The Hunting Ground

FOREIGN LANGUAGE, ANIMATED, DOCUMENTARY FEATURES

Nominees:

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
> Embrace of the Serpent (Columbia)
> Mustang (France)
> Son of Saul (Hungary)
> Theeb (Jordan)
> A War (Denmark)

ANIMATED FEATURE
> Anomalisa (Charlie Kaufman, Duke Johnson and Rosa Tran)
> Boy and the World (Alê Abreu)
> Inside Out (Pete Docter and Jonas Rivera)
> Shaun The Sheep Movie (Mark Burton and Richard Starzak)
> When Marnie Was There (Hiromasa Yonebayashi and Yoshiaki Nishimura)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
> Amy (Asif Kapadia and James Gay-Rees)
> Cartel Land (Matthew Heineman and Tom Yellin)
> The Look of Silence (Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen)
> What Happened, Miss Simone? (Liz Garbus, Amy Hobby and Justin Wilkes)
> Winter On Fire: Ukraine’s Fight For Freedom (Evgeny Afineevsky and Den Tolmor)

Okay, getting into another couple didn’t-see-’em-all categories.  VIFF even made a point last fall of announcing the Foreign Language Oscar submissions in the festival line-up (obviously aimed at nuts like me! did make a point of seeing a couple might not have otherwise) but I still didn’t take the opportunity then to see Mustang or Son of Saul cos I reckoned they’d be back.  And they were, but not at theatres I wanted to patronise – had planned to see the former in Portland but missed it; did, however, catch the latter in Seattle.  Any other year, think Mustang’s female empowerment would’ve had the edge, but Son of Saul really is an amazing work of cinema, following one character very closely to represent the greater horror of the Holocaust.  The camerawork is amazing (right into the river with him!) – worthy of a cinematography nom for sure.  The Danish A War (with Pilou Asbæk) hasn’t been released yet, so that’s two haven’t seen in that category.  And haven’t seen two of the documentaries cos, well, don’t have Netflix (if they’d even be available on the Canadian service anyway.)  S’pose this is a new thing with film distribution now – assumedly there was a theatrical release at some point in order to qualify?  Had wanted to see Spike Lee’s Chi-raq last fall but couldn’t find it anywhere – cos it was being released by Amazon and not in Canada?  Luckily was still able to catch it when I was in Portland. (And apparently it’s coming soon to the VIFF Vancity Theatre – was announced at a Black History Month screening I was at a coupla weeks ago, but is not yet listed on their website.)  So as much as there’s apparently been a big campaign to promote the Nina Simone doc, think the Amy Winehouse one crafted from home movies/personal videos is going to come out on top.  Over the second Joshua Oppenheimer doc dealing with horrors of recent Indonesian history (I thought his first, The Act of Killing, was going to win a coupla years back, but it lost to a music doc – so same again here?)  And saw all the animated noms, thanks to good timing on library DVDs (caught one I’d missed in theatres on quick-view, the other, even in its one-off return (was in Seattle that day), came in well before Oscars.)  Was glad to see more than the usual kids’ fare recognised in this category but was disappointed by the Kaufman (got the Fregoli reference but was a lot of male crap – has a wife, calls up an ex, seeks another – pah!)  Enjoyed the dialogue-free humour and adventure of Aardman claymation Shaun the Sheep (hadn’t realised it included the farmer and dog I’d been shown clips of years ago.)  The other no-real-language one, Brazilian Boy and the World, had a wonderful evolving animation style (as character goes from simple/rural to complex/urban) and music that went deeper than just entertainment.  Would voters have watched the Ghibli with the American-dubbed voices or the original Japanese with subtitles? (I chose the latter, tho’ did watch a bit with Geena Davis and Kathy Bates and John C. Reilly – was okay, but not the same.)  But doesn’t matter about any of those if there’s a Pixar production with a screenplay nom too (pretty high-concept for young audiences.)  I did laugh out loud at the “forgetters” doing their job (especially Paula Poundstone’s sending a gum jingle up to headquarters and the glimpses into other teams in others’ heads.)

Best Foreign Language Film Prediction: Son of Saul
Best Animated Feature Prediction: Inside Out
Best Documentary Feature Prediction: Amy

SHORTS

Nominees:

LIVE ACTION SHORT
> Ave Maria (Basil Khalil and Eric Dupont)
> Day One (Henry Hughes)
> Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut) (Patrick Vollrath)
> Shok (Jamie Donoughue)
> Stutterer (Benjamin Cleary and Serena Armitage)

ANIMATED SHORT
> Bear Story (Gabriel Osorio and Pato Escala)
> Prologue (Richard Williams and Imogen Sutton)
> Sanjay’s Super Team (Sanjay Patel and Nicole Grindle)
> We Can’t Live Without Cosmos (Konstantin Bronzit)
> World of Tomorrow (Don Hertzfeldt)

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
> Body Team 12 (David Darg and Bryn Mooser)
> Chau, Beyond The Lines (Courtney Marsh and Jerry Franck)
> Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah (Adam Benzine)
> A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness (Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy)
> Last Day of Freedom (Dee Hibbert-Jones and Nomi Talisman)

And last but not least, the shorts – and I’ve seen ’em all this year! (I dunno if it’s gonna help me predict what’s going to win though.)  In the Live Action category, found the car-breaks-down-outside-West-Bank-convent-of-nuns comedy Ave Maria a bit forced.  Thought friends-during-Kosovo-War drama Shok and German/Austrian divorced-dad-in-crisis drama (with a good, not-overly-“actorly” kid actor) were the strongest (but remember the French domestic drama I thought was best a coupla years ago didn’t win.)  Enjoyed Stutterer’s quiet typographer with more to express till its plays-the-audience ending.  Soldiers-in-Afghanistan female-protag Day One was a bit melodramatic (tho’ based on a true story we learn in the closing credits – also, George Lucas thanked) but kinda hit some elements thought might bode well for it with voters (plus it’s the only American one.)  EW’s going with Shok, but I’m still kinda leaning towards the American one.  Er, no, um… Moving onto Animated Short, my fave was the Russian cosmonaut buddies one, We Can’t Live Without Cosmos, and thought the sad Chilean stop-motion Bear Story was good too.  Hand-drawn Prologue had nudity and violence and had to screen at the end of the packaged shorts program with a warning for kids to exit, but didn’t stand out otherwise.  Sanjay’s Super Team (whose director’s worked on A Bug’s Life, Toy Story 2, Monsters Inc., The Incredibles and Ratatouille) was the flashiest, and therefore probably has a good chance.  All those were dialogue-free, and then there was the overly-talky clone-visiting-herself-in-the-past comedy World of Tomorrow that I found really annoying, but seems to be the fave (won the Annie.)  Nah, will go with the Pixar.  And finally, got to see all the doc shorts for once as they happened to be playing in Seattle when I was there – due to run times, showed in two parts (so two admissions – sneaky!)  I’m guessing the reason they never seem to make it to Canada is some (two this year) are HBO-produced, and therefore probably have to negotiate different deals to screen in different countries (tho’ I think all the nom’d shorts were going to be available on iTunes sometime this week pre-Oscars?) They’re all “issue” docs, the most artful being an animated take on an interview with a man recalling his dead brother’s Last Day of Freedom (includes mental health, veterans’ and death penalty issues), and Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah, an elegant interviews/clips doc to do with cinema/holocaust that I think makes it the favourite. The Pakistani A Girl in the River, about a girl shot by her own father (this still goes on), and Vietnamese Chau, Beyond the Lines, about a boy disabled by Agent Orange (this still goes on) who wants to be an artist, were kinda hard going, and Body Team 12, profiling a brave nurse dealing with the bodies of victims of Ebola in Liberia, was not as in-depth as its 13 minutes could have been.  EW says Girl in the River, but I’m going with Claude Lanzmann, whose years-in-the-making doc Shoah was never nominated for an Oscar.

Best Live Action Short: Shok
Best Animated Short: Sanjay’s Super Team
Best Documentary Short: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah

And there you have it!  I’ve left myself no time to think about the show itself, like Chris Rock’s hosting (he was good last time (2005) – and will surely address the (lack-of)diversity issue right off the bat) or whose face might be the last we see in the In Memoriam montage — I’m tired and just wanna post this already (have stayed late after work to use the internet but I’m too tired to read it thru – will have to proof and tweak and format titles and such when I return in the morning.)  But before I go, here’s a timely image from Daniel Clowes (Ghost World, Art School Confidential)…

And, cos I like to include a Savage Chickens movie-related funny with my annual posting…