Oscars Predix 2015

It’s Oscars Eve – time for the annual scramble to work out my Academy Awards predictions.  Haven’t been having a great time of things the past year or so, but when the nominations were announced January 15, and I’d actually seen half the nominees (more arthouse/indie than totally mainstream list), reckoned could get into it.

With second-run theatres like the Hollywood and Denman closed (and the UBC Film Society’s Norm Theatre programming going erratic retro of late), and Sineplex Odious running former Festival Cinemas locations, still had the Rio (also erratic in their additions/changing showtimes after already noted in my iCal), Landmark (suburban multiplexes not involved in breaking the BC Projectionists Union in the late ’90s) and far-flung Hollywood 3 Cinemas (who’ve recently taken over Caprice White Rock locations) at which to do some catch-up (plus fit in a visit to Cinecenta for Two Days, One Night while at the Victoria Film festival last weekend – if’d been able to get Thursday’s shift covered, could’ve done a Bellingham day trip to see Mr. Turner! (which, of course, I should’ve already seen at VIFF last fall – turns out quite a number of Oscar noms played there).)

So, have now seen all eight of the Best Picture nominees, all but one Acting nomination (tho’ The Judge has been on video a few weeks, the library’s 30 copies are yet to enter circulation, and I’m 135th in line – no chance Duvall’s gonna win anyway), a majority of the Foreign, Animated and Documentary features, and 11 of the 15 shorts.  Got the “Oscar! Your Ultimate Viewer’s Guide” double-issue of Entertainment Weekly, but turns out its “40 pages of bold predictions, surprises & more!” doesn’t include much beyond the top categories (and the “secret ballot” section where industry insiders reveal how they’re casting their ballots is actually for the Grammys – if you were interested in them, you wouldn’t’ve even picked up this issue as it has no mention of the Grammys content on the cover.)  Have also checked in on some guild awards and odds websites, as momentum seems to’ve switched from the early-assumed front-runner.

And so let’s start with the big top two categories then – s’posedly one of the closest Best Picture races ever (FiveThirtyEight, Feb. 20: The Race For Best Picture Is Among The Closest In Oscar History)…

PICTURE, DIRECTING

Nominees:
PICTURE: American Sniper (Clint Eastwood, Robert Lorenz, Andrew Lazar, Bradley Cooper and Peter Morgan, Producers); Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) (Alejandro G. Iñárritu, John Lesher and James W. Skotchdopole, Producers); Boyhood (Richard Linklater and Cathleen Sutherland, Producers); The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson, Producers); The Imitation Game (Nora Grossman, Ido Ostrowsky and Teddy Schwarzman, Producers); Selma (Christian Colson, Oprah Winfrey, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, Producers); The Theory of Everything (Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce and Anthony McCarten, Producers); Whiplash (Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook and David Lancaster, Producers)
DIRECTOR: Alejandro G. Iñárritu for Birdman; Richard Linklater for Boyhood; Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher; Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel; Morten Tyldum for The Imitation Game

First off, this is a pretty arthouse-skewing list, eh? (apparently recent release American Sniper‘s box office has been greater than the others’ combined – cos, according to some (Time, Feb. 18: Why American Sniper Was the Only Oscar Movie That Made Big Money), it was promoted as a war picture, not a “prestige film” – which is probably why, till I realised Clint Eastwood had directed it and it had a Best Pic nom, I hadn’t been interested – was the last nom I saw, and was, for the most part (save some take-you-out-of-it-it’s-so-obvious CGI and a lame prop), a well-made drama.)  Historical bio-dramas like The Imitation Game and Selma and The Theory of Everything could be expected to garner Oscar attention (tho’ the latter two wouldn’t be anywhere near my top 10), but it’s pretty cool to see the latest Wes Anderson confection and indie Whiplash in there with inspired offerings from Richard Linklater and Alejandro González Iñárritu.  (Then again, wasn’t the expanded up-to-10-nominees thing s’posed to get more mainstream movies in the mix to attract a larger TV audience? – tho’ Oscar recognition could help the films’ theatrical/video/streaming sales, dunno that anything beyond Sniper is much of a draw to general TV-viewing audiences.  There’ll probably be a slew of young presenters I’ve never heard of to try to get the kids to tune in.)

I saw Linklater’s 12-years-in-the-making Boyhood last fall at the Rio (unfortunately, interrupted in the middle with a “technical difficulty” – which was announced as taking about 10 minutes to set right, with the concession conveniently still open? argh) and loved it.  What an undertaking – and what a result!  Surely it’d be in the running for Best Pic and Director (and Patricia Arquette was really really good!)  Then I was in Seattle a few weeks later and saw Birdman at the Guild 45th (and The Theory of Everything at the Harvard Exit and Interstellar in 70mm IMAX at the Pacific Science Center – neither of which I thought were Best Pic material, though I enjoyed Nolan’s space epic as huge-screen entertainment) – from it’s bizarre opening shot thru the magnificently roving camera, the claustrophobic nooks ‘n’ crannies of the Broadway theatre (and the protag’s mind) setting and reality/on-stage acting, found it to be a totally exhilarating cinematic experience (and Edward Norton (as usual) was really really good!)  (BTW, having listed the full title with its weirdly-placed parentheses above, from here on in, just calling it Birdman – see also National Post, Oct. 10: What’s in a name? For some film titles, the answer is a bit wordy.)  So posited there could be a Picture/Director split again (been happening more often in recent years) and the truly bravura work’d get Picture and the guy who took twelve years to coordinate, create and complete his milestone vision’d get Director.

When the Oscar nominations were announced, Boyhood and Linklater were rather considered front-runners, but now it seems things are leaning towards Birdman and Iñárritu (who, I noticed when watching the credits, and since, is going by Alejandro G. Iñárritu – dropping the paternal González) – the Directors Guild and Producers Guild awards both went to Birdman.  However, though each branch nominates its own category, the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences’ whole membership (around 6000 involved in the industry, actors making up the largest voting bloc with 20-25%) gets to vote for their favourites in all categories (or as many as they wish to – assuming they qualify as having seen the Foreign, Documentary, etc.), so, despite current odds, I’m going with the idea that the majority will choose to split it and reward the artistically outstanding piece of cinema as well as the landmark production’s helmer.  (Or might it go the other way ’round – reward Iñárritu for the artistic achievement and give Boyhood the top prize? ack!)  Is there a chance of each category’s vote being split between these two and something else coming up the middle to win? (in which case, which would that be? – The Imitation Game? Wes Anderson?)

Predictions:
PICTURE: Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
DIRECTOR: Richard Linklater for Boyhood

WRITING

Nominees:
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Birdman (written by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo); Boyhood (written by Richard Linklater); Foxcatcher (written by E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman); The Grand Budapest Hotel (screenplay by Wes Anderson, story by Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness); Nightcrawler (written by Dan Gilroy)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: American Sniper (written by Jason Hall, based on the book American Sniper: The Autobiography of the Most Lethal Sniper in U.S. Military History, by Chris Kyle, Scott McEwan and Jim DeFelice); The Imitation Game (written by Graham Moore, based on the book Alan Turing: The Enigma, written by Andrew Hodges); Inherent Vice (written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson, based on the novel Inherent Vice, by Thomas Pynchon); The Theory of Everything (screenplay by Anthony McCarten, based on the book Travelling to Infinity: My Life with Stephen Hawking, by Jane Wilde Hawking); Whiplash (written by Damien Chazelle, based on the short film Whiplash, written by Damien Chazelle)

Have seen all the writing noms this year (kinda surprised not more nods for Nightcrawler, especially Jake Gyllenhaal – tho’ who’d you drop from the acting noms? 3-years-in-a-row Bradley Cooper?)  I usually reckon that the top coupla pictures split the screenplays according to respective categories, or the front-runner gets one and the other goes to a strong multi-nom’d indie (eg. Lost in Translation, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Little Miss Sunshine, Juno, Milk or Sideways, Precious, The Descendants)  But this year, with the top two Pictures both in the same one along with Wes Anderson (who’s had two previous Original Screenplay noms – The Royal Tenenbaums and Moonrise Kingdom), I’m going with Birdman and Boyhood being viewed as duking it out for Pic and Director and Budapest getting recognised here.  Which kinda leaves Whiplash as the “indiest” of the other cat, but am guessing Anderson’s Original covers the strong indie alternative, so Adapted’ll go with the “next biggest” Best Pic and be The Imitation Game.

Predictions:
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Graham Moore for The Imitation Game

ACTING

Nominees:
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: Steve Carell for Foxcatcher; Bradley Cooper for American Sniper; Benedict Cumberbatch for The Imitation Game; Michael Keaton for Birdman; Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night; Felicity Jones for The Theory of Everything; Julianne Moore for Still Alice; Rosamund Pike for Gone Girl; Reese Witherspoon for Wild
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Robert Duvall for The Judge; Ethan Hawke for Boyhood; Edward Norton for Birdman; Mark Ruffalo for Foxcatcher; J.K. Simmons for Whiplash
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Patricia Arquette for Boyhood; Laura Dern for Wild; Keira Knightly for The Imitation Game; Emma Stone for Birdman

Except for leading actor, I think these are wrapped up – it’s Julianne Moore’s “turn” (like it was Jessica Lange’s with not-nominated-for-anything-else good-but-not-great-movie Blue Sky) and J.K. Simmons and Patricia Arquette have swept all the other year-end awards in their respective categories, right?  I know last year part of my reasoning on Matthew McConaughey was that Hollywood loves a comeback, and Michael Keaton was terrific in the plays-with art-imitating-life Birdman and was considered the front-runner. But I think I’m going to stick with all four SAG winners here (plus, (tho’ plenty of nom’d-but-didn’t-win exceptions), think Rain Man, My Left Foot, Forrest Gump, Ray, The King’s Speech…)

Predictions:
ACTOR: Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything
ACTRESS: Julianne Moore for Still Alice
SUPPORTING ACTOR: J.K. Simmons for Whiplash
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Patricia Arquette for Boyhood

CINEMATOGRAPHY, EDITING, EFFECTS

Nominees:
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Emmanuel Lubezki for Birdman; Robert Yeoman for The Grand Budapest Hotel; Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski for Ida; Dick Pope for Mr. Turner; Roger Deakins for Unbroken
FILM EDITING: Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach for American Sniper; Sandra Adair for Boyhood; Barney Pilling for The Grand Budapest Hotel; William Goldenberg for The Imitation Game; Tom Cross for Whiplash
VISUAL EFFECTS: Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill and Dan Sudick for Captain America: The Winter Soldier; Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist for Dawn of the Planet of the Apes; Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner and Paul Corbould for Guardians of the Galaxy; Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher for Interstellar; Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie and Cameron Waldbauer for X-Men: Days of Future Past

Any layman considering these categories will likely vote for the “most noticeable” examples.  So with the is-this-all-going-to-be-one-shot?-wow! camerawork on Birdman, I’d say this-is-his-seventh-nomination (won last year for Gravity) Emmanual Lubezki (with his Steadicam operator Chris Haarhoff) is the clear Cinematography Oscar winner (won ASC award.)  (Aside: still a few shot-on-film noms this year – Boyhood, Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Interstellar, The Judge, Leviathan, plus day scenes on Nightcrawler – see Filmmaker Magazine, Jan. 15: 39 Movies Released in 2014 Shot on 35mm.)  And most’ll reason that longtime Linklater collaborator Sandra Adair’s editing 12 years of footage into Boyhood is worthy of an Oscar (won ACE Eddie.)  (Aside: as much as I loved the documentary Double Play: James Benning and Richard Linklater, wish I hadn’t been exposed to Linklater’s discussion of editing choices for Boyhood till after seeing the completed feature in question – knowing certain things can spoil the discovery/enjoyment of virgin viewing.)  Saw all the Cinematography and Editing noms, but of the Visual Effects ones, only saw Interstellar.  Which has four other technical nominations, and had the big multi-format release, so, let’s say it wins something here.

Predictions:
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Emmanuel Lubezki for Birdman
FILM EDITING: Sandra Adair for Boyhood
VISUAL EFFECTS: Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher for Interstellar

DESIGN, COSTUMES, MAKEUP

Nominees:
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Adam Stockhausen & Anna Pinnock for The Grand Budapest Hotel; Maria Djurkovic & Tatiana Macdonald for The Imitation Game; Nathan Crowley & Gary Fettis for Interstellar; Dennis Gassner & Anna Pinnock for Into The Woods; Suzie Davies & Charlotte Watts for Mr. Turner
COSTUME DESIGN: Milena Canonero for The Grand Budapest Hotel; Mark Bridges for Inherent Vice; Colleen Atwood for Into The Woods; Anna B. Sheppard for Maleficent; Jacqueline Durran for Mr. Turner
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: Bill Corso and Dennis Liddiard for Foxcatcher; Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier for The Grand Budapest Hotel; Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White for Guardians of the Galaxy

Tho’ had non-corporate opportunity to view them in Vancouver, haven’t seen Mr. Turner (missed a planned VIFF matinee) or Guardians of the Galaxy (tho’ recommended by a colleague, didn’t bother going out to UBC to see it on the big screen (pre-Oscars, no idea’d be nominated) and just put it on hold at the library (still 121st in line.)  Had no desire to see Maleficent.  Regardless, kinda like last year’s Great Gatsby, I’m thinking the fantastic look of The Grand Budapest Hotel will get the votes in these design categories over Into The Woods (which also looked really terrific, but doesn’t have a Best Pic nom) and Zoe Saldana’s greenness/Steve Carell’s fake nose. (Hmm – double-nominated-this-year Set Decorator Anna Pinnock’s had three previous noms.)

Predictions:
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Adam Stockhausen & Anna Pinnock for The Grand Budapest Hotel
COSTUME DESIGN: Milena Canonero for The Grand Budapest Hotel
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier for The Grand Budapest Hotel

SOUND

Nominees:
SOUND EDITING: Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman for American Sniper; Martín Hernández and Aaron Glascock for Birdman; Brent Burge and Jason Canovas for The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies; Richard King for Interstellar; Becky Sullivan and Andrew DeCristofaro for Unbroken
SOUND MIXING: John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin for American Sniper; Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and Thomas Varga for Birdman; Gary A. Rizzo, Gregg Landaker and Mark Weingarten for Interstellar; Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and David Lee for Unbroken; Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley for Whiplash

Here’s where Entertainment Weekly not including further-down-the-ballot categories leaves me rather guessing.  War action (Iraq War, WWII, Middle Earth), space travel, psychological thrillers with artists – hmm… After I saw Interstellar in 70mm IMAX and was reading some reviews/reactions (don’t like to ahead of seeing something), learned that apparently a lot of viewers had trouble hearing dialogue and asked theatre owners to adjust the sound (but levels were set as they should be.)  Maybe some find McConaughey mumbly or it wasn’t an issue with IMAX, but I didn’t notice any such problems (and the industry members nominated it.)  American Sniper also has other noms, including Best Pic, so is that the more likely contender?  And Whiplash involves music, which often goes with Sound Mixing, right?  The Motion Picture Sound Editors Golden Reel Awards break down their categories into Effects/Foley (American Sniper won) and Dialogue/ADR (Unbroken won) and others, so would guess Sniper‘ll get something?  Which presenter gets the chance to say the name “Bub Asman”?

Predictions:
SOUND EDITING: Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman for American Sniper
SOUND MIXING: Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley for Whiplash

MUSIC

Nominees:
ORIGINAL SCORE: Alexandre Desplat for The Grand Budapest Hotel; Alexandre Desplat for The Imitation Game; Hans Zimmer for Interstellar; Gary Yershon for Mr. Turner; Jóhann Jóhannsson for The Theory of Everything
ORIGINAL SONG: “Everything Is Awesome” from The Lego Movie (Music and Lyric by Shawn Patterson); “Glory” from Selma (Music and Lyric by John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn); “Grateful” from Beyond the Lights (Music and Lyric by Diane Warren); “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from Glen Campbell… I’ll Be Me (Music and Lyric by Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond); “Lost Stars” from Begin Again (Music and Lyric by Gregg Alexander and Danielle Brisebois)

I’m not recalling any of the scores in any particular way (as previously noted, didn’t see Mr. Turner.)  Do remember being pleasantly surprised to see Jóhann Jóhannsson’s name in Theory‘s credits. Loved his work in Bill Morrison’s The Miners’ Hymns. Cool he’s being recognised with many-times-nominated Hans Zimmer (won for The Lion King) and Alexandre Desplat.  Will the latter’s double nomination split his fans’ votes and allow Jóhannsson to get in there?  Or would Zimmer’s dramatic space-epic music appeal more to voters?

Haven’t seen the last two listed films up for Song.  Tho’ assumedly the songs are important to those music-themed films, going to guess they’re too small for real attention.  Beyond the Lights was a decent mainstream entertainment, but despite being about a rising singing star, none of the original songs were memorable.  The Lego Movie song is certainly catchy.  I almost turned off the DVD (anticipating potential Oscar noms, put some animated features on library holds – despite its 21st-century look, enjoyed update of old fave Mr. Peabody, and lucked out on timing of How To Train Your Dragon 2 coming in at same time I could get the first, which I hadn’t seen) in the first 10 or 15 minutes, I felt so bombarded by it all, but the catchy song tugged me in and I liked where the story ended up going (tho’ certainly didn’t feel the movie was worthy of a Best Animated Feature nom – which, thankfully, it didn’t receive.)  But I’d say this is where Selma can get rewarded.  Best Pic then nothing else but Song – this’ll be where anyone feeling the pic was “snubbed” can cast a vote in a category it can win.  Also, it captures the essence of the film and the story’s relevancy today (lyrics even include reference to Ferguson.)

Predictions:
ORIGINAL SCORE: Jóhann Jóhannsson for The Theory of Everything
ORIGINAL SONG: John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn for “Glory” from Selma

FOREIGN LANGUAGE, ANIMATED, DOCUMENTARY FEATURES

Nominees:
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Wild Tales from Argentina; Tangerines from Estonia; Timbuktu from Mauritania; Ida from Poland; Leviathan from Russia
ANIMATED FEATURE: Big Hero 6 (Don Hall, Chris Williams and Roy Conli); The Boxtrolls (Anthony Stacchi, Graham Annable and Travis Knight); How To Train Your Dragon 2 (Dean DeBlois and Bonnie Arnold); Song of the Sea (Tomm Moore and Paul Young); The Tale of the Princess Kaguya (Isao Takahata and Yoshiaki Nishimura)
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Citizenfour (Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy and Dirk Wilutzky); Finding Vivian Maier (John Maloof and Charlie Siskel); Last Days in Vietnam (Rory Kennedy and Keven McAlester); The Salt of the Earth (Wim Wenders, Juliano Ribeiro Salgado and David Rosier); Virunga (Orlando von Einsiedel and Joanna Natasegara)

Foreign and Documentary are part of my regular cinemagoing diet so have managed to see 3 out of 5 of those cat’s noms.  Saw 6-episodes-of-outrageous-revenge Wild Tales at VIFF, and tho’ some sections were stronger than others (loved the airplane opener, the road rage one was the weakest) it was certainly what you’d call a “crowd-pleaser”, so voters finding others too heavy could go with that.  (Dunno if that in part explains its inclusion and the glaring omission of Xavier Dolan’s brilliant Mommy from the Foreign Language noms.)  Polish Ida is a quiet, beautifully composed and photographed drama related to the Holocaust (Oscar often goes for that subject) and is also nominated for cinematography (but so was Pan’s Labyrinth and The White Ribbon, and they didn’t win for Foreign.)  As with Birdman, the opening of Russian Leviathan immediately drew me in and I just knew I’d love it (plus, used my last Sineplex comp to see a 9:45 Monday night show a few weeks into the run and had the cinema to myself!)  It’s an excellent dramatic thriller with amazing cinematography (from vast rugged landscapes to effectively composed tension-filled two-shot interiors) and makes a statement about corruption in Russia, so perhaps Americans wanting to take a poke at Putin would vote for this work of foreign art.  I’d say it’s between Ida and Leviathan, but Ida‘s other-category nomination gives it the edge.

All five Animated Feature noms have played Vancouver but didn’t see The Boxtrolls and tho’ VIFF’s year-round Vancity Theatre played The Tale of the Princess Kaguya numerous times, only seemed to be the English version, and I prefer to watch Japanese animation with Japanese voices, so, even when it was brought back post-Oscar noms, I took a pass.  Big Hero 6 was entertaining, but not especially outstanding (tho’ best catch-phrase from a movie this year: the way Baymax calmly says, “oh no” when something goes awry – would make a great ringtone for certain numbers, like your boss calling on a weekend.)  Loved magical, colourful, detailed, Irish tale Song of the Sea, but it probably doesn’t have a chance against big-American-studio sequel How To Train Your Dragon 2.  Which I just saw on DVD (after catching up with the first one first) and enjoyed (great characters, more than just flying adventure, and surprisingly affecting too.)  Regarding the sequel thing, the first was up against multi-nom’d Toy Story 3, which was really great of itself but also like awarding the first two (which came out before there was an Animated Feature category), so here’s the chance to do the same.

Saw Virunga at DOXA, Vivian Maier at VIFF (with an annoying water-dripping-from-the-ceiling disruption) and Citizenfour on an about-to-expire Sineplex comp in November (start delayed due to DCP issues, received another comp, which saved for Oscar time and used to see Leviathan.)  But probably doesn’t matter if you’ve seen any of them (tho’ voters should have, right?) cos Edward Snowden and government surveillance is the subject of Laura Poitras’ and that issue’ll win regardless, right?

Predictions:
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Ida from Poland
ANIMATED FEATURE: Dean DeBlois and Bonnie Arnold for How To Train Your Dragon 2
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy and Dirk Wilutzky for Citizenfour

SHORTS

Nominees:
LIVE ACTION SHORT: Aya (Oded Binnun and Mihal Brezis); Boogaloo and Graham (Michael Lennox and Ronan Blaney); Butter Lamp (La lampe au beurre de yak) (Hu Wei and Julien Féret); Parvaneh (Talkhon Hamzavi and Stefan Eichenberger); The Phone Call (Mat Kirkby and James Lucas)
ANIMATED SHORT: The Bigger Picture (Daisy Jacobs and Christopher Hees); The Dam Keeper (Robert Kondo and Dice Tsutsumi); Feast (Patrick Osborne and Kristina Reed); Me and My Moulton (Torill Kove); A Single Life (Joris Oprins)
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 (Ellen Goosenberg Kent and Dana Perry); Joanna (Aneta Kopacz); Our Curse (Tomasz Śliwiński and Maciej Ślesicki); The Reaper (La Parka) (Gabriel Serra Arguello); White Earth (J. Christian Jensen)

Okay, down to the last ones – the toughest to win in the pool, right?  Saw the Animation and Live Action packages at Vancity recently (why they don’t get the documentaries too when Seattle does, I dunno) and saw the Polish parents-with-baby-with-rare-disease doc Our Curse at DOXA.  Tho’ these strategies backfired on me last year, going with the name-actors-involved (Sally Hawkins, Jim Broadbent) UK live-action drama The Phone Call and the old-school-lookin’ Disney played-in-front-of-Big Hero 6 thru-dog’s-eyes/tummy animated Feast.  For docs, gonna go with the veteran’s hotline one (not even bothering to read up on the others’ subject matter) cos that’s been a pressing issue in the States that voters might wanna make a statement about.  (So two that involve crisis lines? – yeah, sure.)  I would really really love to see the Chinese Butter Lamp win though – its masterfully simple execution is such a wonderful example of the short-film format.

Predictions:
LIVE ACTION SHORT: Mat Kirkby and James Lucas for The Phone Call
ANIMATED SHORT: Patrick Osborne and Kristina Reed for Feast
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT: Ellen Goosenberg Kent and Dana Perry for Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

And there we are.  Staying late after work (still no home internet) to post night-before now complete (probably gonna regret doing all this typing in one go, but pain situation not as bad as this time last year – in other health woes, still have at least ten pounds to gain back.)  Might still do some re-formatting or typo-correcting on-shift tomorrow, but these are the predictions am time-stampin’ now and takin’ to the bar tomorrow (won there last year – lessee if can repeat!)  Unlikely multi-talented hosting pro Neil Patrick Harris will disappoint, eh?  So many big names gone since last show (Mike Nichols, Richard Attenborough, Eli Wallach, Shirley Temple…) – will the last photo of the In Memoriam be Lauren Bacall or Robin Williams? (guessing the latter – probably had the biggest impact on those producing the show/cutting together the montage.)  Looking forward to seeing my jet-setting friend who first got me into going to the bar to watch over 20 years ago – he’s actually in town for Oscar Night (for once! – yay!)