Oscars Predix 2016

Okay, time to gather my thoughts ahead of Oscar Night – and share them here in my annual Oscars Predix blog post.  Cos I like to plan out how I’m going to bet at the bar, and there’re still a coupla friends who can’t join me there who may check in here.  I started gathering info ahead of Oscar Eve — been checking in at The Wrap the past few weeks for buzz and guild winners and such, and this week made my annual Entertainment Weekly purchase (over 7 bucks now?! “Win Your Oscar Pool” is in rather small print cos it’s an “Apocalyptic Double Issue” on The Walking Dead – which I’ve heard of but never seen (sometimes I get series on DVD from the library and do the binge-watching thing – got some Nordic noir on hold now) – s’pose the days of EW Oscar covers are gone – tho’ they did go back to including all categories this year) and even got around to doing the software update on my iPad (think it was still on 8.1 or 2 or something, but latest is 9.2.1) so could run an Oscars app to reference past years’ noms/winners — intending to move from thinking to writing well ahead of my usual night-before rush.  But we’ll see when this actually gets posted (still no home internet, so composing offline in spare-moment dribs and drabs to transfer later – which might be just as well as my manual dexterity is not what it once was, and too much typing just makes things worse – am guessing it’ll be late Saturday night anyway by the time I’m done.)

When the nominations were announced back on January 14, I’d seen a fair number of major-category nominees (including 5 of the 9 Best Picture titles), and since then have filled in quite a few more on the checklist.  The Rio brought back some Golden Globe noms in December and I caught a coupla other likely contenders on a visit to Portland in the new year (tho’ missed a few more had planned to see there), then VIFF’s Vancity Theatre’s done a few random one-offs, along with their annual presentation of shorts noms (in two categories – caught the third on a Seattle overnighter), plus have seen a few on DVD.  There is one category for which I’ve seen zero of the five noms (for once it’s not Visual Effects or Documentary Shorts!) but overall have done pretty well.  ‘Course I always say you don’t have to’ve seen ’em all to guess which’ll win — but it sure helps!

With the new (well, a few years now) nominations process meant to produce 5 to 10 Best Picture nominees, this year’s list has 8 titles – and no obvious frontrunner. (BTW, if there are any typos here, blame TextEdit’s auto-correct — especially annoying with names, which I’ve typed while looking at screengrabs of the AMPAS website — though apparently, except for acting categories, ballots only list the film titles now, so I wonder how that affects people voting.)  The nominating is done by each branch (costume designers nominate for Costume Design, etc.), but all members (currently 6,261) get to vote in all categories for the winners (s’posedly only ones in which they’ve seen all the nominees (honour system) – see Oscilloscope Laboratories’ Daniel Berger’s guest column in The Hollywood Reporter: “Watch the F–king Movies!”)  Best Pic is the only category with more than 5 nominees (only one with fewer is Makeup) and the only one that’s voted on preferentially – everything else, voters mark the one they think is best, but for the top prize they rank in order of preference.  With a close race, it’s unlikely one film will have 50% +1 of first-choice votes, so voters’ second and third choices will become more important in the final consensus if their first choice wasn’t one of the frontrunners.

PICTURE

Nominees:
> The Big Short (Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, Producers)
> Bridge of Spies (Steven Spielberg, Marc Platt and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers)
> Brooklyn (Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers)
> Mad Max: Fury Road (Doug Mitchell and George Miller, Producers)
> The Martian (Simon Kinberg, Ridley Scott, Michael Schaefer and Mark Huffam, Producers)
> The Revenant (Arnon Milchan, Steve Golin, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Mary Parent and Keith Redmon, Producers)
> Room (Ed Guiney, Producer)
> Spotlight (Michael Sugar, Steve Golin, Nicole Rocklin and Blye Pagon Faust, Producers

Thanks to getting Bridge of Spies on DVD (one of the ones I’d planned to see in Portland but didn’t), have seen all the noms this year. Think my personal faves from the noms would be The Martian and Spotlight. With no clear frontrunner, this could end up being the biggest surprise of the night. Considering Ridley Scott and Steven Spielberg didn’t get Directing nods, and Room is more a “small” picture, at the time the nominations were announced, would say that top-number-of-noms technical spectacles The Revenant (12) and Mad Max: Fury Road (10) and ensemble-cast issue-driven critical darlings Spotlight and The Big Short were the top contenders. As various guild award winners were announced, didn’t seem to help narrow it down – PGA went with The Big Short, SAG gave their Ensemble Cast award to Spotlight (actors make up largest contingent of Academy voters), and the DGA chose The Revenant. Spotlight had been atop all the critics’ lists at the end of 2015, but was that in large part because writers relate to journalism? (Certainly was a great movie about investigative journalists working – though I wonder how many film critics actually work for newspapers anymore, and how many of those work from home as opposed to going by the newsroom every day and hanging with reporters.) And there was a lotta love for George Miller and Mad Max Fury Road on the year-end lists. I tell myself I’ve gotta remember to pay better attention to who wins PGA and DGA awards, and how closely those tend to match up with Oscar (eg. when Oscar expanded to 10 Best Pic noms, so did PGA, which also uses same preferential voting, and every top Oscar since has won (or tied) the PGA; only 7 times in 67 years has the DGA winner not won the Directing Oscar) – not make the same mistake I did last year with Boyhood and Birdman. But then again, there’s momentum. Voting didn’t start till about a month after the nominations were announced, so though voters had plenty of time to attend member screenings or watch their free DVDs and decide on their favourites before the 12 days of voting started (only wrapped up this past Tuesday, the 23rd), they also had time to be influenced by other awards and ad campaigns for 2015 films not being released widely till January/February. I saw Spotlight in early December, but The Revenant’s wide release came after the noms were known. The Big Short took PGA and WGA awards, but from what I’ve been reading, The Revenant‘s win with the DGA, then the BAFTA and ASC just as Oscar voting started – it’s been surging. It could win lots of other-category Oscars (something most Best Pic winners do – but Big Short could get Adapted Screenplay and Editing), but it doesn’t have a screenplay nod (also something most Best Pic winners not only have but win – last to win without was Titanic, and only The Sound of Music and Hamlet before that.) It’s an exciting cinematic experience, but it’s not an “issue picture” like The Big Short (housing crisis) or Spotlight (church secrets) – and the Academy tends to like those, right? (eg. 12 Years a Slave over Gravity, The Hurt Locker over Avatar.) Stick to history of guild-winner match-ups or heed the latest buzz? Gonna go with history/stats…

Best Picture Prediction: The Big Short

DIRECTING

Nominees:
> The Big Short (Adam McKay)
> Mad Max: Fury Road (George Miller)
> The Revenant (Alejandro G. Iñárritu)
> Room (Lenny Abrahamson)
> Spotlight (Tom McCarthy)

Think Miller may have been the early favourite with all the critics’ raves for his exciting genre entertainment/Mad Max reboot, but Iñárritu’s hot (won last year) and The Revenant was a bold and brilliantly done big-screen survival adventure too.  Baking heat and sand or freezing cold and ice? – the latter’s a more likely Best Pic winner.  The Big Short was a zingy piece of zeitgeist with fast ‘n’ fun meta stuff like direct-to-camera/audience address by a self-aware narrator and celebrity asides to explain derivatives, but that might count more in editing or screenplay, seeing as Iñárritu won the DGA award (first director to ever win that prize two years in a row.)  Even if Best Pic is unclear, think Best Director is.  Only other directors to win back-to-back were Joseph L. Mankiewicz (1949’s Letter to Three Wives & 1950’s All About Eve) and John Ford (won 4 in total, including 1940’s The Grapes of Wrath & 1941’s How Green Was My Valley.)

Best Directing Prediction: The Revenant

WRITING

Nominees:

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
> Bridge of Spies (Written by Matt Charman and Ethan Coen & Joel Coen)
> Ex Machina (Written by Alex Garland)
> Inside Out (Screenplay by Peter Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley; Original Story by Peter Docter, Ronnie del Carmen)
> Spotlight (Written by Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy)
> Straight Outta Compton (Screenplay by Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff; Story by S. Leigh Savidge & Alan Wenkus and Andrea Berloff)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
> The Big Short (Screenplay by Charles Randolph and Adam McKay)
> Brooklyn (Screenplay by Nick Hornby)
> Carol (Screenplay by Phyllis Nagy)
> The Martian (Screenplay by Drew Goddard)
> Room (Screenplay by Emma Donoghue)

Even if the WGA membership/screenplay eligibility and therefore noms don’t often totally line up with Oscar (this year WGA Original Screenplay noms included Sicario and Trainwreck while Oscar had Ex Machina and Inside Out; majority of WGA’s Adapted category was from non-fiction books (the big-screen reimagining of Michael Lewis’ The Big Short also on Oscar’s list, plus a Trumbo bio and Aaron Sorkin’s exhilarating take on Walter Isaacsson’s Steve Jobs), the screenplay categories usually line up with the top coupla Best Pic contenders, right?  Unless the obvious leader lines up with Adapted, in which case this is a good place to honour a smaller indie Best Pic nom with Original (eg. Her, Juno, Little Miss Sunshine, Lost in Translation.)  This might’ve been voters’ chance to show love/make a statement for Straight Outta Compton (with original NWA members as producers, surely a selective history (tho’ focus on friendships/betrayals and political/freedom-of-speech/not-much-has-changed stuff works), but a nonetheless involving, well-crafted and well-acted biopic w/strong sense of time and place) ‘cept the nominated writers so white.  With Best Pic contenders split between Original and Adapted, both being “issue” pics, and the WGA wins for both, these seem pretty solid.

Best Original Screenplay Predication: Spotlight
Best Adapted Screenplay Prediction: The Big Short

ACTING

Nominees:

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
> Bryan Cranston in Trumbo
> Matt Damon in The Martian
> Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant
> Michael Fassbender in Steve Jobs
> Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
> Cate Blanchett in Carol
> Brie Larson in Room
> Jennifer Lawrence in Joy
> Charlotte Rampling in 45 Years
> Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
> Christian Bale in The Big Short
> Tom Hardy in The Revenant
> Mark Ruffalo in Spotlight
> Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies
> Sylvester Stallone in Creed

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
> Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight
> Rooney Mara in Carol
> Rachel McAdams in Spotlight
> Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl
> Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs

Well the lead acting cats this year seem pretty clear from the mass of other awards, eh? (and I’ve seen all but one of the nom’d performances – skipped 45 Years at VIFF as expected it’d be back, but so far has only been at still-won’t-pay-money-to Sineplex, and tho’ I’d planned to see it in Seattle, opted to catch the Doc Shorts instead.)  First-time nominee Brie Larson’s won just about everything for her heartbreaking turn as a determined captive mum in Room (Blanchett’s got two Oscars already, Lawrence one, this is Ronan’s second nom, Rampling’s got a bunch of César noms.) Plus the “it’s his turn” thing for (has also won everything so far this season) Leo (this is his 6th Oscar nom – 4th for Lead Actor, also has 1 for Supporting, plus 1 as Best Pic producer for The Wolf of Wall Street) has lined up nicely with a meaty role (very little speaking, a lot of pained breathing) as the titular fur-trapper left for dead in The Revenant (the anonymous director in EW’s “secret ballot” feature this year reasons: “Any vegetarian who will eat a raw bison liver for art has my vote”) – kinda like Jeff Bridges with Crazy Heart, it’s a “deserving” example of his work.  The SAG’s noms don’t quite line up with Oscar’s this year in any of the four categories, but it’s Supporting Actor in particular that’s way off – only Christian Bale and Mark Rylance are on both lists, and someone else (Idris Elba for Beasts of No Nation – was that even released here?) won, so can’t be a predictor here.  Mark Rylance may’ve won a BAFTA at home for his quiet loner spy, but apparently didn’t actively participate in the Bridge of Spies campaign stateside, so that lessens his chances.  Against sentimental fave Stallone reprising his Rocky role 40 years after originating it (nom’d in ’76 for Original Screenplay and Lead Actor, plus the popular pic won top prize over All the President’s Men, Network and Taxi Driver.)  No SAG nom, but Oscar loves a comeback.  And tho’ the white guy got the nod, it is a way of rewarding Creed – another well-made, well-acted movie whose black director (very talented Ryan Coogler – compare the contrasting camerawork and approach in the two main fight sequences with what’s going on with the character at each) and star (very talented Michael B. Jordan – beautifully understated as young man figuring out who he is) went unrecognised by the Academy (see Creed, but also see their previous collaboration, Fruitvale Station.)  Glad to see Spotlight standout Ruffalo nom’d, but he’ll have to wait a bit longer.  In the ladies’ supporting cat, Oscar’s got Jennifer Jason Leigh where SAG had Helen Mirren (for Trumbo – also nom’d as lead in Woman in Gold), but I think it’s between the Danish Vikander and near-unrecognisable Winslet.  Every time I’ve seen Vikander (only Scandinavian films before last year: Pure, A Royal Affair, Hotell), she’s different.  Guess the fx got nom’d for Ex Machina instead of her, but voters might consider her burgeoning AI in that as well as her passionate artist spouse (the best part of The Danish Girl) when marking their Oscar ballot.  She won the SAG and Winslet’s already got a golden guy, so assuming Vikander stays on her roll.

Best Actor Prediction: Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Actress Prediction: Brie Larson
Best Supporting Actor Prediction: Sylvester Stallone
Best Supporting Actress Prediction: Alicia Vikander

CINEMATOGRAPHY, EDITING, FX

Nominees:

CINEMATOGRAPHY
> Carol (Ed Lachman)
> The Hateful Eight (Robert Richardson)
> Mad Max: Fury Road (John Seale)
> The Revenant (Emmanuel Lubezki)
> Sicario (Roger Deakins)

FILM EDITING
> The Big Short (Hank Corwin)
> Mad Max: Fury Road (Margaret Sixel)
> The Revenant (Stephen Mirrione)
> Spotlight (Tom McArdle)
> Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey)

VISUAL EFFECTS
> Ex Machina (Andrew Whitehurst, Paul Norris, Mark Ardington and Sara Bennett)
> Mad Max: Fury Road (Andrew Jackson, Tom Wood, Dan Oliver and Andy Williams)
> The Martian (Richard Stammers, Anders Langlands, Chris Lawrence and Steven Warner)
> The Revenant (Rich McBride, Matthew Shumway, Jason Smith and Cameron Waldbauer)
> Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould)

Though Editing is often tied in with Directing and Picture, Cinematography isn’t necessarily.  But I would think that it’s likely to go to something with a nom for Best Pic.  Which would leave out Ed Lachman’s beautiful work on Carol (previously nominated for Todd Hayne’s equally sumptuous Far From Heaven), the great Roger Deakins (this is his 13th Oscar nod, and 2nd working with Canadian Denis Villeneuve), and Robert Richardson (who’s worked with the likes of Oliver Stone, John Sayles, Martin Scorsese, and Robert Redford, as well as Quentin Tarantino – this is his 9th nom) and famously used special lenses from the ’60s for an authentic return to Ultra Panavision 70.  My 70mm viewing at a sold-out Hollywood Theatre in Portland (where Tarantino himself had been a few days before, raving about the projection) has gotta rank up there with my all-time great cinema experiences.  Hmm, I wonder if Hateful Eight could grab an old-school appreciation award here as well as for score (will get to that below.)  No, I think it’s going to go to 5-time (including this year) ASC winner Chivo again – super DP Emmanuel Lubezki won the last two (for Iñárritu’s Birdman last year, Cuarón’s Gravity year before – and 5 other Oscar noms before those) but I think he’s still on a roll.  (Speaking of rolls – of film, that is! – I couldn’t find any Tisch School blog post this year about 2015 films shot on film, but I did find a Filmmaker Magazine article: ~64 Films Released in 2015 Shot on 35mm – apparently Spielberg’s the only director of this year’s Best Pic noms to’ve shot on film.)  Considering the Editing category (and the fact that tho’ the noms are decided by editors, all members vote on the final ballot), I’m guessing it’s between the two Best Pic noms that “look the most edited” – The Big Short and Mad Max.  If we find early on it’s the former, could be surer sign it’ll win the top prize.  But I’m leaning towards Max getting some love further down the ballot, including here.  (Sixel is apparently Miller’s wife, having worked with him before on Happy Feet and Babe: Pig in the City.)  And, for once, I’ve actually seen all the Visual Effects nominees (maybe cos they’re not all about comic book characters and hobbits and include Best Pic noms.)  Here I think it’ll be between Best Pic noms Mad Max (fast-paced post-apocalyptic craziness throughout) and The Revenant (that one scene everyone who’s seen it talks about, with the scarily realistic mamma bear), but wonder if the latest Star Wars could sneak in there, as this is the only category of its five noms general voters may deem worthy if they wanna show love for the keeping-to-the-original-spirit sequel/reboot.

Best Cinematography Prediction: The Revenant
Best Film Editing Prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Visual Effects Prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road

DESIGN, MAKEUP

Nominees:

PRODUCTION DESIGN
> Bridge of Spies (Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo and Bernhard Henrich)
> The Danish Girl (Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Michael Standish)
> Mad Max: Fury Road (Production Design: Colin Gibson; Set Decoration: Lisa Thompson)
> The Martian (Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Celia Bobak)
> The Revenant (Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Hamish Purdy)

COSTUME DESIGN
> Carol (Sandy Powell)
> Cinderella (Sandy Powell)
> The Danish Girl (Paco Delgado)
> Mad Max: Fury Road (Jenny Beavan)
> The Revenant (Jacqueline West)

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
> Mad Max: Fury Road (Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega and Damian Martin)
> The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared (Love Larson and Eva von Bahr)
> The Revenant (Siân Grigg, Duncan Jarman and Robert Pandini)

Have seen all these noms except Cinderella (put the DVD on hold at the library, but it’s not even in circulation yet.)  The design categories’ winners usually involve the especially beautiful and elaborate, whether it’s period pieces or the fantastical (and can even go to work outside of Best Pic noms, especially Costumes.)  Mad Max is pretty fantastical and could sweep all three.  Or could 12-time nominee (including 2 this year) and 3-time winner Sandy Powell triumph for Carol?

Best Production Design Prediction:  Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Costume Design Prediction: Carol
Best Makeup & Hairstyling Prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road

SOUND

Nominees:

SOUND EDITING
> Mad Max: Fury Road (Mark Mangini and David White)
> The Martian (Oliver Tarney)
> The Revenant (Martin Hernandez and Lon Bender)
> Sicario (Alan Robert Murray)
> Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Matthew Wood and David Acord)

SOUND MIXING
> Bridge of Spies (Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Drew Kunin)
> Mad Max: Fury Road (Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff and Ben Osmo)
> The Martian (Paul Massey, Mark Taylor and Mac Ruth)
> The Revenant (Jon Taylor, Frank A Montaño, Randy Thom and Chris Duesterdiek)
> Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio and Stuart Wilson)

Gee, seen all the sound noms this year too (again with no Transformers or Marvel entries and a majority also Best Pic noms.)  What have I determined before? – that Mixing is for a film’s overall sound (Cinema Audio Society awarded The Revenant this year, in a field that included Mad Max and Star Wars), and Editing is for aural effects (as of this writing, Motion Picture Sound Editors have not yet announced their awards, but they have so many categories, it’s hard to compare.)  So post-apocalyptic vehicles and explosions of Mad Max or wild west wilderness of The Revenant?  If the latter wins one of these, could give it a better chance at Best Pic.  Ah, gonna go with Mad Max again for all these down-ballot cats.

Best Sound Editing Prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Sound Mixing Prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road

MUSIC

Nominees:

ORIGINAL SCORE
> Bridge of Spies (Thomas Newman)
> Carol (Carter Burwell)
> The Hateful Eight (Ennio Morricone)
> Sicario (Jóhann Jóhannsson)
> Star Wars: The Force Awakens (John Williams)

ORIGINAL SONG
> “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (Music and Lyric by The Weeknd, Ahmad Balshe, Jason Daheala Quenneville and Stephan Moccio)
> “Manta Ray” from Racing Extinction (Music by J. Ralph, Lyric by Anohni)
> “Simple Song #3” from Youth (Music and Lyric by David Lang)
> “Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground (Music and Lyric by Diane Warren and Lady Gaga)
> “Writing’s On The Wall” from Spectre (Music and Lyric by Jimmy Napes and Sam Smith)

Ah, except for 13-times-nom’d Thomas Newman (12 for score plus a song – lost to Red Violin year of American Beauty) up for Bridge of Spies, none of the music noms are also up for Best Picture.  There were two scores of these 5 that stood out for me – Jóhannsson’s for Sicario (it’s like it grew from the scary droning sound of the helicopters – I know I mentioned his work on Bill Morrison’s The Miners’ Hymns when he was nom’d last year (for less-memorable The Theory of Everything), but Sicario’s score really reminded me of that) and Morricone’s for The Hateful Eight.  Tho’ the Italian composer’s career includes a wide range of motion picture scores (a fave: The Mission) and he has worked with Tarantino before, he’s probably most known for those Leone westerns (everyone knows his theme from The Good, The Bad and the Ugly), and all that comes together so well in The Hateful Eight, think this’ll be the chance to honour him with a competitive Oscar win (this is his 6th Oscar nom, and he did get an honourary award in 2007.)  So, yeah, sentimental favourite there, methinks.  As for Song, this is the only category this year for which I’m zero for five in seeing the nominees.  So I’ve listened to the songs online, though am not sure how they were used in their respective movies (as part of the story or just over the closing credits?) – except I understand the classical-music song from Youth is s’posed to’ve haunted a character all his life and figures in an emotional ending.  Of course the songs from The Mambo Kings and That Thing You Do also figured prominently in their film’s stories but they didn’t win.  Interesting that there are two noms from documentaries this year – apparently that’s only happened 4 times before (a quick check reveals all in last decade – Glenn Campbell: I’ll Be Me last year, the U2 song from Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom the year before, the one sung by Scarlet Johansson at the end of Chasing Ice the year before that (which was written by J. Ralph, also co-nominee for an enviro doc this year), and Melissa Etheridge won in 2007 for (another enviro doc) An Inconvenient Truth.) The Academy’s apparently not even including performances of all 5 nominees in the show, dropping the lesser-known artists from even appearing (c’mon – not everyone can be Lady Gaga.)  At least give us a chance to hear them – why not a little taste of each presented together, one after the other?  Now-8-times-nominated Diane Warren’s past entries are all pretty mainstream-rock-radio-sounding stuff (think “I Don’t Wanna Miss A Thing” (performed by Aerosmith) from Armageddon, “Because You Loved Me” (Celine Dion) from Up Close & Personal, “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now” (Starship) from Mannequin), but seems her teaming with Gaga on the campus rape doc The Hunting Ground has produced a harrowing song that will likely win.

Best Original Score Prediction: The Hateful Eight
Best Original Song Prediction: The Hunting Ground

FOREIGN LANGUAGE, ANIMATED, DOCUMENTARY FEATURES

Nominees:

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
> Embrace of the Serpent (Columbia)
> Mustang (France)
> Son of Saul (Hungary)
> Theeb (Jordan)
> A War (Denmark)

ANIMATED FEATURE
> Anomalisa (Charlie Kaufman, Duke Johnson and Rosa Tran)
> Boy and the World (Alê Abreu)
> Inside Out (Pete Docter and Jonas Rivera)
> Shaun The Sheep Movie (Mark Burton and Richard Starzak)
> When Marnie Was There (Hiromasa Yonebayashi and Yoshiaki Nishimura)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
> Amy (Asif Kapadia and James Gay-Rees)
> Cartel Land (Matthew Heineman and Tom Yellin)
> The Look of Silence (Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen)
> What Happened, Miss Simone? (Liz Garbus, Amy Hobby and Justin Wilkes)
> Winter On Fire: Ukraine’s Fight For Freedom (Evgeny Afineevsky and Den Tolmor)

Okay, getting into another couple didn’t-see-’em-all categories.  VIFF even made a point last fall of announcing the Foreign Language Oscar submissions in the festival line-up (obviously aimed at nuts like me! did make a point of seeing a couple might not have otherwise) but I still didn’t take the opportunity then to see Mustang or Son of Saul cos I reckoned they’d be back.  And they were, but not at theatres I wanted to patronise – had planned to see the former in Portland but missed it; did, however, catch the latter in Seattle.  Any other year, think Mustang’s female empowerment would’ve had the edge, but Son of Saul really is an amazing work of cinema, following one character very closely to represent the greater horror of the Holocaust.  The camerawork is amazing (right into the river with him!) – worthy of a cinematography nom for sure.  The Danish A War (with Pilou Asbæk) hasn’t been released yet, so that’s two haven’t seen in that category.  And haven’t seen two of the documentaries cos, well, don’t have Netflix (if they’d even be available on the Canadian service anyway.)  S’pose this is a new thing with film distribution now – assumedly there was a theatrical release at some point in order to qualify?  Had wanted to see Spike Lee’s Chi-raq last fall but couldn’t find it anywhere – cos it was being released by Amazon and not in Canada?  Luckily was still able to catch it when I was in Portland. (And apparently it’s coming soon to the VIFF Vancity Theatre – was announced at a Black History Month screening I was at a coupla weeks ago, but is not yet listed on their website.)  So as much as there’s apparently been a big campaign to promote the Nina Simone doc, think the Amy Winehouse one crafted from home movies/personal videos is going to come out on top.  Over the second Joshua Oppenheimer doc dealing with horrors of recent Indonesian history (I thought his first, The Act of Killing, was going to win a coupla years back, but it lost to a music doc – so same again here?)  And saw all the animated noms, thanks to good timing on library DVDs (caught one I’d missed in theatres on quick-view, the other, even in its one-off return (was in Seattle that day), came in well before Oscars.)  Was glad to see more than the usual kids’ fare recognised in this category but was disappointed by the Kaufman (got the Fregoli reference but was a lot of male crap – has a wife, calls up an ex, seeks another – pah!)  Enjoyed the dialogue-free humour and adventure of Aardman claymation Shaun the Sheep (hadn’t realised it included the farmer and dog I’d been shown clips of years ago.)  The other no-real-language one, Brazilian Boy and the World, had a wonderful evolving animation style (as character goes from simple/rural to complex/urban) and music that went deeper than just entertainment.  Would voters have watched the Ghibli with the American-dubbed voices or the original Japanese with subtitles? (I chose the latter, tho’ did watch a bit with Geena Davis and Kathy Bates and John C. Reilly – was okay, but not the same.)  But doesn’t matter about any of those if there’s a Pixar production with a screenplay nom too (pretty high-concept for young audiences.)  I did laugh out loud at the “forgetters” doing their job (especially Paula Poundstone’s sending a gum jingle up to headquarters and the glimpses into other teams in others’ heads.)

Best Foreign Language Film Prediction: Son of Saul
Best Animated Feature Prediction: Inside Out
Best Documentary Feature Prediction: Amy

SHORTS

Nominees:

LIVE ACTION SHORT
> Ave Maria (Basil Khalil and Eric Dupont)
> Day One (Henry Hughes)
> Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut) (Patrick Vollrath)
> Shok (Jamie Donoughue)
> Stutterer (Benjamin Cleary and Serena Armitage)

ANIMATED SHORT
> Bear Story (Gabriel Osorio and Pato Escala)
> Prologue (Richard Williams and Imogen Sutton)
> Sanjay’s Super Team (Sanjay Patel and Nicole Grindle)
> We Can’t Live Without Cosmos (Konstantin Bronzit)
> World of Tomorrow (Don Hertzfeldt)

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
> Body Team 12 (David Darg and Bryn Mooser)
> Chau, Beyond The Lines (Courtney Marsh and Jerry Franck)
> Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah (Adam Benzine)
> A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness (Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy)
> Last Day of Freedom (Dee Hibbert-Jones and Nomi Talisman)

And last but not least, the shorts – and I’ve seen ’em all this year! (I dunno if it’s gonna help me predict what’s going to win though.)  In the Live Action category, found the car-breaks-down-outside-West-Bank-convent-of-nuns comedy Ave Maria a bit forced.  Thought friends-during-Kosovo-War drama Shok and German/Austrian divorced-dad-in-crisis drama (with a good, not-overly-“actorly” kid actor) were the strongest (but remember the French domestic drama I thought was best a coupla years ago didn’t win.)  Enjoyed Stutterer’s quiet typographer with more to express till its plays-the-audience ending.  Soldiers-in-Afghanistan female-protag Day One was a bit melodramatic (tho’ based on a true story we learn in the closing credits – also, George Lucas thanked) but kinda hit some elements thought might bode well for it with voters (plus it’s the only American one.)  EW’s going with Shok, but I’m still kinda leaning towards the American one.  Er, no, um… Moving onto Animated Short, my fave was the Russian cosmonaut buddies one, We Can’t Live Without Cosmos, and thought the sad Chilean stop-motion Bear Story was good too.  Hand-drawn Prologue had nudity and violence and had to screen at the end of the packaged shorts program with a warning for kids to exit, but didn’t stand out otherwise.  Sanjay’s Super Team (whose director’s worked on A Bug’s Life, Toy Story 2, Monsters Inc., The Incredibles and Ratatouille) was the flashiest, and therefore probably has a good chance.  All those were dialogue-free, and then there was the overly-talky clone-visiting-herself-in-the-past comedy World of Tomorrow that I found really annoying, but seems to be the fave (won the Annie.)  Nah, will go with the Pixar.  And finally, got to see all the doc shorts for once as they happened to be playing in Seattle when I was there – due to run times, showed in two parts (so two admissions – sneaky!)  I’m guessing the reason they never seem to make it to Canada is some (two this year) are HBO-produced, and therefore probably have to negotiate different deals to screen in different countries (tho’ I think all the nom’d shorts were going to be available on iTunes sometime this week pre-Oscars?) They’re all “issue” docs, the most artful being an animated take on an interview with a man recalling his dead brother’s Last Day of Freedom (includes mental health, veterans’ and death penalty issues), and Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah, an elegant interviews/clips doc to do with cinema/holocaust that I think makes it the favourite. The Pakistani A Girl in the River, about a girl shot by her own father (this still goes on), and Vietnamese Chau, Beyond the Lines, about a boy disabled by Agent Orange (this still goes on) who wants to be an artist, were kinda hard going, and Body Team 12, profiling a brave nurse dealing with the bodies of victims of Ebola in Liberia, was not as in-depth as its 13 minutes could have been.  EW says Girl in the River, but I’m going with Claude Lanzmann, whose years-in-the-making doc Shoah was never nominated for an Oscar.

Best Live Action Short: Shok
Best Animated Short: Sanjay’s Super Team
Best Documentary Short: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah

And there you have it!  I’ve left myself no time to think about the show itself, like Chris Rock’s hosting (he was good last time (2005) – and will surely address the (lack-of)diversity issue right off the bat) or whose face might be the last we see in the In Memoriam montage — I’m tired and just wanna post this already (have stayed late after work to use the internet but I’m too tired to read it thru – will have to proof and tweak and format titles and such when I return in the morning.)  But before I go, here’s a timely image from Daniel Clowes (Ghost World, Art School Confidential)…

And, cos I like to include a Savage Chickens movie-related funny with my annual posting…

Oscars Predix 2015

It’s Oscars Eve – time for the annual scramble to work out my Academy Awards predictions.  Haven’t been having a great time of things the past year or so, but when the nominations were announced January 15, and I’d actually seen half the nominees (more arthouse/indie than totally mainstream list), reckoned could get into it.

With second-run theatres like the Hollywood and Denman closed (and the UBC Film Society’s Norm Theatre programming going erratic retro of late), and Sineplex Odious running former Festival Cinemas locations, still had the Rio (also erratic in their additions/changing showtimes after already noted in my iCal), Landmark (suburban multiplexes not involved in breaking the BC Projectionists Union in the late ’90s) and far-flung Hollywood 3 Cinemas (who’ve recently taken over Caprice White Rock locations) at which to do some catch-up (plus fit in a visit to Cinecenta for Two Days, One Night while at the Victoria Film festival last weekend – if’d been able to get Thursday’s shift covered, could’ve done a Bellingham day trip to see Mr. Turner! (which, of course, I should’ve already seen at VIFF last fall – turns out quite a number of Oscar noms played there).)

So, have now seen all eight of the Best Picture nominees, all but one Acting nomination (tho’ The Judge has been on video a few weeks, the library’s 30 copies are yet to enter circulation, and I’m 135th in line – no chance Duvall’s gonna win anyway), a majority of the Foreign, Animated and Documentary features, and 11 of the 15 shorts.  Got the “Oscar! Your Ultimate Viewer’s Guide” double-issue of Entertainment Weekly, but turns out its “40 pages of bold predictions, surprises & more!” doesn’t include much beyond the top categories (and the “secret ballot” section where industry insiders reveal how they’re casting their ballots is actually for the Grammys – if you were interested in them, you wouldn’t’ve even picked up this issue as it has no mention of the Grammys content on the cover.)  Have also checked in on some guild awards and odds websites, as momentum seems to’ve switched from the early-assumed front-runner.

And so let’s start with the big top two categories then – s’posedly one of the closest Best Picture races ever (FiveThirtyEight, Feb. 20: The Race For Best Picture Is Among The Closest In Oscar History)…

PICTURE, DIRECTING

Nominees:
PICTURE: American Sniper (Clint Eastwood, Robert Lorenz, Andrew Lazar, Bradley Cooper and Peter Morgan, Producers); Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) (Alejandro G. Iñárritu, John Lesher and James W. Skotchdopole, Producers); Boyhood (Richard Linklater and Cathleen Sutherland, Producers); The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson, Producers); The Imitation Game (Nora Grossman, Ido Ostrowsky and Teddy Schwarzman, Producers); Selma (Christian Colson, Oprah Winfrey, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, Producers); The Theory of Everything (Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce and Anthony McCarten, Producers); Whiplash (Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook and David Lancaster, Producers)
DIRECTOR: Alejandro G. Iñárritu for Birdman; Richard Linklater for Boyhood; Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher; Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel; Morten Tyldum for The Imitation Game

First off, this is a pretty arthouse-skewing list, eh? (apparently recent release American Sniper‘s box office has been greater than the others’ combined – cos, according to some (Time, Feb. 18: Why American Sniper Was the Only Oscar Movie That Made Big Money), it was promoted as a war picture, not a “prestige film” – which is probably why, till I realised Clint Eastwood had directed it and it had a Best Pic nom, I hadn’t been interested – was the last nom I saw, and was, for the most part (save some take-you-out-of-it-it’s-so-obvious CGI and a lame prop), a well-made drama.)  Historical bio-dramas like The Imitation Game and Selma and The Theory of Everything could be expected to garner Oscar attention (tho’ the latter two wouldn’t be anywhere near my top 10), but it’s pretty cool to see the latest Wes Anderson confection and indie Whiplash in there with inspired offerings from Richard Linklater and Alejandro González Iñárritu.  (Then again, wasn’t the expanded up-to-10-nominees thing s’posed to get more mainstream movies in the mix to attract a larger TV audience? – tho’ Oscar recognition could help the films’ theatrical/video/streaming sales, dunno that anything beyond Sniper is much of a draw to general TV-viewing audiences.  There’ll probably be a slew of young presenters I’ve never heard of to try to get the kids to tune in.)

I saw Linklater’s 12-years-in-the-making Boyhood last fall at the Rio (unfortunately, interrupted in the middle with a “technical difficulty” – which was announced as taking about 10 minutes to set right, with the concession conveniently still open? argh) and loved it.  What an undertaking – and what a result!  Surely it’d be in the running for Best Pic and Director (and Patricia Arquette was really really good!)  Then I was in Seattle a few weeks later and saw Birdman at the Guild 45th (and The Theory of Everything at the Harvard Exit and Interstellar in 70mm IMAX at the Pacific Science Center – neither of which I thought were Best Pic material, though I enjoyed Nolan’s space epic as huge-screen entertainment) – from it’s bizarre opening shot thru the magnificently roving camera, the claustrophobic nooks ‘n’ crannies of the Broadway theatre (and the protag’s mind) setting and reality/on-stage acting, found it to be a totally exhilarating cinematic experience (and Edward Norton (as usual) was really really good!)  (BTW, having listed the full title with its weirdly-placed parentheses above, from here on in, just calling it Birdman – see also National Post, Oct. 10: What’s in a name? For some film titles, the answer is a bit wordy.)  So posited there could be a Picture/Director split again (been happening more often in recent years) and the truly bravura work’d get Picture and the guy who took twelve years to coordinate, create and complete his milestone vision’d get Director.

When the Oscar nominations were announced, Boyhood and Linklater were rather considered front-runners, but now it seems things are leaning towards Birdman and Iñárritu (who, I noticed when watching the credits, and since, is going by Alejandro G. Iñárritu – dropping the paternal González) – the Directors Guild and Producers Guild awards both went to Birdman.  However, though each branch nominates its own category, the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences’ whole membership (around 6000 involved in the industry, actors making up the largest voting bloc with 20-25%) gets to vote for their favourites in all categories (or as many as they wish to – assuming they qualify as having seen the Foreign, Documentary, etc.), so, despite current odds, I’m going with the idea that the majority will choose to split it and reward the artistically outstanding piece of cinema as well as the landmark production’s helmer.  (Or might it go the other way ’round – reward Iñárritu for the artistic achievement and give Boyhood the top prize? ack!)  Is there a chance of each category’s vote being split between these two and something else coming up the middle to win? (in which case, which would that be? – The Imitation Game? Wes Anderson?)

Predictions:
PICTURE: Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
DIRECTOR: Richard Linklater for Boyhood

WRITING

Nominees:
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Birdman (written by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo); Boyhood (written by Richard Linklater); Foxcatcher (written by E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman); The Grand Budapest Hotel (screenplay by Wes Anderson, story by Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness); Nightcrawler (written by Dan Gilroy)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: American Sniper (written by Jason Hall, based on the book American Sniper: The Autobiography of the Most Lethal Sniper in U.S. Military History, by Chris Kyle, Scott McEwan and Jim DeFelice); The Imitation Game (written by Graham Moore, based on the book Alan Turing: The Enigma, written by Andrew Hodges); Inherent Vice (written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson, based on the novel Inherent Vice, by Thomas Pynchon); The Theory of Everything (screenplay by Anthony McCarten, based on the book Travelling to Infinity: My Life with Stephen Hawking, by Jane Wilde Hawking); Whiplash (written by Damien Chazelle, based on the short film Whiplash, written by Damien Chazelle)

Have seen all the writing noms this year (kinda surprised not more nods for Nightcrawler, especially Jake Gyllenhaal – tho’ who’d you drop from the acting noms? 3-years-in-a-row Bradley Cooper?)  I usually reckon that the top coupla pictures split the screenplays according to respective categories, or the front-runner gets one and the other goes to a strong multi-nom’d indie (eg. Lost in Translation, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Little Miss Sunshine, Juno, Milk or Sideways, Precious, The Descendants)  But this year, with the top two Pictures both in the same one along with Wes Anderson (who’s had two previous Original Screenplay noms – The Royal Tenenbaums and Moonrise Kingdom), I’m going with Birdman and Boyhood being viewed as duking it out for Pic and Director and Budapest getting recognised here.  Which kinda leaves Whiplash as the “indiest” of the other cat, but am guessing Anderson’s Original covers the strong indie alternative, so Adapted’ll go with the “next biggest” Best Pic and be The Imitation Game.

Predictions:
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Graham Moore for The Imitation Game

ACTING

Nominees:
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: Steve Carell for Foxcatcher; Bradley Cooper for American Sniper; Benedict Cumberbatch for The Imitation Game; Michael Keaton for Birdman; Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night; Felicity Jones for The Theory of Everything; Julianne Moore for Still Alice; Rosamund Pike for Gone Girl; Reese Witherspoon for Wild
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Robert Duvall for The Judge; Ethan Hawke for Boyhood; Edward Norton for Birdman; Mark Ruffalo for Foxcatcher; J.K. Simmons for Whiplash
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Patricia Arquette for Boyhood; Laura Dern for Wild; Keira Knightly for The Imitation Game; Emma Stone for Birdman

Except for leading actor, I think these are wrapped up – it’s Julianne Moore’s “turn” (like it was Jessica Lange’s with not-nominated-for-anything-else good-but-not-great-movie Blue Sky) and J.K. Simmons and Patricia Arquette have swept all the other year-end awards in their respective categories, right?  I know last year part of my reasoning on Matthew McConaughey was that Hollywood loves a comeback, and Michael Keaton was terrific in the plays-with art-imitating-life Birdman and was considered the front-runner. But I think I’m going to stick with all four SAG winners here (plus, (tho’ plenty of nom’d-but-didn’t-win exceptions), think Rain Man, My Left Foot, Forrest Gump, Ray, The King’s Speech…)

Predictions:
ACTOR: Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything
ACTRESS: Julianne Moore for Still Alice
SUPPORTING ACTOR: J.K. Simmons for Whiplash
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Patricia Arquette for Boyhood

CINEMATOGRAPHY, EDITING, EFFECTS

Nominees:
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Emmanuel Lubezki for Birdman; Robert Yeoman for The Grand Budapest Hotel; Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski for Ida; Dick Pope for Mr. Turner; Roger Deakins for Unbroken
FILM EDITING: Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach for American Sniper; Sandra Adair for Boyhood; Barney Pilling for The Grand Budapest Hotel; William Goldenberg for The Imitation Game; Tom Cross for Whiplash
VISUAL EFFECTS: Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill and Dan Sudick for Captain America: The Winter Soldier; Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist for Dawn of the Planet of the Apes; Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner and Paul Corbould for Guardians of the Galaxy; Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher for Interstellar; Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie and Cameron Waldbauer for X-Men: Days of Future Past

Any layman considering these categories will likely vote for the “most noticeable” examples.  So with the is-this-all-going-to-be-one-shot?-wow! camerawork on Birdman, I’d say this-is-his-seventh-nomination (won last year for Gravity) Emmanual Lubezki (with his Steadicam operator Chris Haarhoff) is the clear Cinematography Oscar winner (won ASC award.)  (Aside: still a few shot-on-film noms this year – Boyhood, Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Interstellar, The Judge, Leviathan, plus day scenes on Nightcrawler – see Filmmaker Magazine, Jan. 15: 39 Movies Released in 2014 Shot on 35mm.)  And most’ll reason that longtime Linklater collaborator Sandra Adair’s editing 12 years of footage into Boyhood is worthy of an Oscar (won ACE Eddie.)  (Aside: as much as I loved the documentary Double Play: James Benning and Richard Linklater, wish I hadn’t been exposed to Linklater’s discussion of editing choices for Boyhood till after seeing the completed feature in question – knowing certain things can spoil the discovery/enjoyment of virgin viewing.)  Saw all the Cinematography and Editing noms, but of the Visual Effects ones, only saw Interstellar.  Which has four other technical nominations, and had the big multi-format release, so, let’s say it wins something here.

Predictions:
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Emmanuel Lubezki for Birdman
FILM EDITING: Sandra Adair for Boyhood
VISUAL EFFECTS: Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher for Interstellar

DESIGN, COSTUMES, MAKEUP

Nominees:
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Adam Stockhausen & Anna Pinnock for The Grand Budapest Hotel; Maria Djurkovic & Tatiana Macdonald for The Imitation Game; Nathan Crowley & Gary Fettis for Interstellar; Dennis Gassner & Anna Pinnock for Into The Woods; Suzie Davies & Charlotte Watts for Mr. Turner
COSTUME DESIGN: Milena Canonero for The Grand Budapest Hotel; Mark Bridges for Inherent Vice; Colleen Atwood for Into The Woods; Anna B. Sheppard for Maleficent; Jacqueline Durran for Mr. Turner
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: Bill Corso and Dennis Liddiard for Foxcatcher; Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier for The Grand Budapest Hotel; Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White for Guardians of the Galaxy

Tho’ had non-corporate opportunity to view them in Vancouver, haven’t seen Mr. Turner (missed a planned VIFF matinee) or Guardians of the Galaxy (tho’ recommended by a colleague, didn’t bother going out to UBC to see it on the big screen (pre-Oscars, no idea’d be nominated) and just put it on hold at the library (still 121st in line.)  Had no desire to see Maleficent.  Regardless, kinda like last year’s Great Gatsby, I’m thinking the fantastic look of The Grand Budapest Hotel will get the votes in these design categories over Into The Woods (which also looked really terrific, but doesn’t have a Best Pic nom) and Zoe Saldana’s greenness/Steve Carell’s fake nose. (Hmm – double-nominated-this-year Set Decorator Anna Pinnock’s had three previous noms.)

Predictions:
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Adam Stockhausen & Anna Pinnock for The Grand Budapest Hotel
COSTUME DESIGN: Milena Canonero for The Grand Budapest Hotel
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier for The Grand Budapest Hotel

SOUND

Nominees:
SOUND EDITING: Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman for American Sniper; Martín Hernández and Aaron Glascock for Birdman; Brent Burge and Jason Canovas for The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies; Richard King for Interstellar; Becky Sullivan and Andrew DeCristofaro for Unbroken
SOUND MIXING: John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin for American Sniper; Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and Thomas Varga for Birdman; Gary A. Rizzo, Gregg Landaker and Mark Weingarten for Interstellar; Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and David Lee for Unbroken; Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley for Whiplash

Here’s where Entertainment Weekly not including further-down-the-ballot categories leaves me rather guessing.  War action (Iraq War, WWII, Middle Earth), space travel, psychological thrillers with artists – hmm… After I saw Interstellar in 70mm IMAX and was reading some reviews/reactions (don’t like to ahead of seeing something), learned that apparently a lot of viewers had trouble hearing dialogue and asked theatre owners to adjust the sound (but levels were set as they should be.)  Maybe some find McConaughey mumbly or it wasn’t an issue with IMAX, but I didn’t notice any such problems (and the industry members nominated it.)  American Sniper also has other noms, including Best Pic, so is that the more likely contender?  And Whiplash involves music, which often goes with Sound Mixing, right?  The Motion Picture Sound Editors Golden Reel Awards break down their categories into Effects/Foley (American Sniper won) and Dialogue/ADR (Unbroken won) and others, so would guess Sniper‘ll get something?  Which presenter gets the chance to say the name “Bub Asman”?

Predictions:
SOUND EDITING: Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman for American Sniper
SOUND MIXING: Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley for Whiplash

MUSIC

Nominees:
ORIGINAL SCORE: Alexandre Desplat for The Grand Budapest Hotel; Alexandre Desplat for The Imitation Game; Hans Zimmer for Interstellar; Gary Yershon for Mr. Turner; Jóhann Jóhannsson for The Theory of Everything
ORIGINAL SONG: “Everything Is Awesome” from The Lego Movie (Music and Lyric by Shawn Patterson); “Glory” from Selma (Music and Lyric by John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn); “Grateful” from Beyond the Lights (Music and Lyric by Diane Warren); “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from Glen Campbell… I’ll Be Me (Music and Lyric by Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond); “Lost Stars” from Begin Again (Music and Lyric by Gregg Alexander and Danielle Brisebois)

I’m not recalling any of the scores in any particular way (as previously noted, didn’t see Mr. Turner.)  Do remember being pleasantly surprised to see Jóhann Jóhannsson’s name in Theory‘s credits. Loved his work in Bill Morrison’s The Miners’ Hymns. Cool he’s being recognised with many-times-nominated Hans Zimmer (won for The Lion King) and Alexandre Desplat.  Will the latter’s double nomination split his fans’ votes and allow Jóhannsson to get in there?  Or would Zimmer’s dramatic space-epic music appeal more to voters?

Haven’t seen the last two listed films up for Song.  Tho’ assumedly the songs are important to those music-themed films, going to guess they’re too small for real attention.  Beyond the Lights was a decent mainstream entertainment, but despite being about a rising singing star, none of the original songs were memorable.  The Lego Movie song is certainly catchy.  I almost turned off the DVD (anticipating potential Oscar noms, put some animated features on library holds – despite its 21st-century look, enjoyed update of old fave Mr. Peabody, and lucked out on timing of How To Train Your Dragon 2 coming in at same time I could get the first, which I hadn’t seen) in the first 10 or 15 minutes, I felt so bombarded by it all, but the catchy song tugged me in and I liked where the story ended up going (tho’ certainly didn’t feel the movie was worthy of a Best Animated Feature nom – which, thankfully, it didn’t receive.)  But I’d say this is where Selma can get rewarded.  Best Pic then nothing else but Song – this’ll be where anyone feeling the pic was “snubbed” can cast a vote in a category it can win.  Also, it captures the essence of the film and the story’s relevancy today (lyrics even include reference to Ferguson.)

Predictions:
ORIGINAL SCORE: Jóhann Jóhannsson for The Theory of Everything
ORIGINAL SONG: John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn for “Glory” from Selma

FOREIGN LANGUAGE, ANIMATED, DOCUMENTARY FEATURES

Nominees:
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Wild Tales from Argentina; Tangerines from Estonia; Timbuktu from Mauritania; Ida from Poland; Leviathan from Russia
ANIMATED FEATURE: Big Hero 6 (Don Hall, Chris Williams and Roy Conli); The Boxtrolls (Anthony Stacchi, Graham Annable and Travis Knight); How To Train Your Dragon 2 (Dean DeBlois and Bonnie Arnold); Song of the Sea (Tomm Moore and Paul Young); The Tale of the Princess Kaguya (Isao Takahata and Yoshiaki Nishimura)
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Citizenfour (Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy and Dirk Wilutzky); Finding Vivian Maier (John Maloof and Charlie Siskel); Last Days in Vietnam (Rory Kennedy and Keven McAlester); The Salt of the Earth (Wim Wenders, Juliano Ribeiro Salgado and David Rosier); Virunga (Orlando von Einsiedel and Joanna Natasegara)

Foreign and Documentary are part of my regular cinemagoing diet so have managed to see 3 out of 5 of those cat’s noms.  Saw 6-episodes-of-outrageous-revenge Wild Tales at VIFF, and tho’ some sections were stronger than others (loved the airplane opener, the road rage one was the weakest) it was certainly what you’d call a “crowd-pleaser”, so voters finding others too heavy could go with that.  (Dunno if that in part explains its inclusion and the glaring omission of Xavier Dolan’s brilliant Mommy from the Foreign Language noms.)  Polish Ida is a quiet, beautifully composed and photographed drama related to the Holocaust (Oscar often goes for that subject) and is also nominated for cinematography (but so was Pan’s Labyrinth and The White Ribbon, and they didn’t win for Foreign.)  As with Birdman, the opening of Russian Leviathan immediately drew me in and I just knew I’d love it (plus, used my last Sineplex comp to see a 9:45 Monday night show a few weeks into the run and had the cinema to myself!)  It’s an excellent dramatic thriller with amazing cinematography (from vast rugged landscapes to effectively composed tension-filled two-shot interiors) and makes a statement about corruption in Russia, so perhaps Americans wanting to take a poke at Putin would vote for this work of foreign art.  I’d say it’s between Ida and Leviathan, but Ida‘s other-category nomination gives it the edge.

All five Animated Feature noms have played Vancouver but didn’t see The Boxtrolls and tho’ VIFF’s year-round Vancity Theatre played The Tale of the Princess Kaguya numerous times, only seemed to be the English version, and I prefer to watch Japanese animation with Japanese voices, so, even when it was brought back post-Oscar noms, I took a pass.  Big Hero 6 was entertaining, but not especially outstanding (tho’ best catch-phrase from a movie this year: the way Baymax calmly says, “oh no” when something goes awry – would make a great ringtone for certain numbers, like your boss calling on a weekend.)  Loved magical, colourful, detailed, Irish tale Song of the Sea, but it probably doesn’t have a chance against big-American-studio sequel How To Train Your Dragon 2.  Which I just saw on DVD (after catching up with the first one first) and enjoyed (great characters, more than just flying adventure, and surprisingly affecting too.)  Regarding the sequel thing, the first was up against multi-nom’d Toy Story 3, which was really great of itself but also like awarding the first two (which came out before there was an Animated Feature category), so here’s the chance to do the same.

Saw Virunga at DOXA, Vivian Maier at VIFF (with an annoying water-dripping-from-the-ceiling disruption) and Citizenfour on an about-to-expire Sineplex comp in November (start delayed due to DCP issues, received another comp, which saved for Oscar time and used to see Leviathan.)  But probably doesn’t matter if you’ve seen any of them (tho’ voters should have, right?) cos Edward Snowden and government surveillance is the subject of Laura Poitras’ and that issue’ll win regardless, right?

Predictions:
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Ida from Poland
ANIMATED FEATURE: Dean DeBlois and Bonnie Arnold for How To Train Your Dragon 2
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy and Dirk Wilutzky for Citizenfour

SHORTS

Nominees:
LIVE ACTION SHORT: Aya (Oded Binnun and Mihal Brezis); Boogaloo and Graham (Michael Lennox and Ronan Blaney); Butter Lamp (La lampe au beurre de yak) (Hu Wei and Julien Féret); Parvaneh (Talkhon Hamzavi and Stefan Eichenberger); The Phone Call (Mat Kirkby and James Lucas)
ANIMATED SHORT: The Bigger Picture (Daisy Jacobs and Christopher Hees); The Dam Keeper (Robert Kondo and Dice Tsutsumi); Feast (Patrick Osborne and Kristina Reed); Me and My Moulton (Torill Kove); A Single Life (Joris Oprins)
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 (Ellen Goosenberg Kent and Dana Perry); Joanna (Aneta Kopacz); Our Curse (Tomasz Śliwiński and Maciej Ślesicki); The Reaper (La Parka) (Gabriel Serra Arguello); White Earth (J. Christian Jensen)

Okay, down to the last ones – the toughest to win in the pool, right?  Saw the Animation and Live Action packages at Vancity recently (why they don’t get the documentaries too when Seattle does, I dunno) and saw the Polish parents-with-baby-with-rare-disease doc Our Curse at DOXA.  Tho’ these strategies backfired on me last year, going with the name-actors-involved (Sally Hawkins, Jim Broadbent) UK live-action drama The Phone Call and the old-school-lookin’ Disney played-in-front-of-Big Hero 6 thru-dog’s-eyes/tummy animated Feast.  For docs, gonna go with the veteran’s hotline one (not even bothering to read up on the others’ subject matter) cos that’s been a pressing issue in the States that voters might wanna make a statement about.  (So two that involve crisis lines? – yeah, sure.)  I would really really love to see the Chinese Butter Lamp win though – its masterfully simple execution is such a wonderful example of the short-film format.

Predictions:
LIVE ACTION SHORT: Mat Kirkby and James Lucas for The Phone Call
ANIMATED SHORT: Patrick Osborne and Kristina Reed for Feast
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT: Ellen Goosenberg Kent and Dana Perry for Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

And there we are.  Staying late after work (still no home internet) to post night-before now complete (probably gonna regret doing all this typing in one go, but pain situation not as bad as this time last year – in other health woes, still have at least ten pounds to gain back.)  Might still do some re-formatting or typo-correcting on-shift tomorrow, but these are the predictions am time-stampin’ now and takin’ to the bar tomorrow (won there last year – lessee if can repeat!)  Unlikely multi-talented hosting pro Neil Patrick Harris will disappoint, eh?  So many big names gone since last show (Mike Nichols, Richard Attenborough, Eli Wallach, Shirley Temple…) – will the last photo of the In Memoriam be Lauren Bacall or Robin Williams? (guessing the latter – probably had the biggest impact on those producing the show/cutting together the montage.)  Looking forward to seeing my jet-setting friend who first got me into going to the bar to watch over 20 years ago – he’s actually in town for Oscar Night (for once! – yay!)

 

A Home Video Retrospective: Philip Seymour Hoffman

As I was on the bus on my way to work the morning of Sunday, February 2nd of this year, someone very dear to me called, to tell me that Philip Seymour Hoffman had died.  It wasn’t one of those fake celebrity stories that get spread around the internet only to be debunked hours later, it was true – apparently a drug overdose (not being too up on filmmakers’ personal lives, I hadn’t realised he’d had an issue with drugs.)  We both very much admired Hoffman as an actor (even rather had a bond over that – I would’ve wanted to call him too if I’d just heard) and felt shocked and truly saddened (the bearer of bad news had an even greater sense of connection to him, having been writing a script with him in mind – I know Hoffman was an inspiration to him.)

My home video library contained a number of Philip Seymour Hoffman movies (plus two of the five film posters on the walls of my main room include him in the cast) and I pulled them from the shelves, thinking perhaps I’d have a little retrospective, in memoriam.  But I had a lot going on at that time, and felt like it’d only make me more sad about things.

Months later, still have challenging personal stuff lingering (health issues suck) but am not having to work too much this summer.  So with today being Philip Seymour Hoffman’s birthday, it’s time to start in on my retrospective.  Since February I’ve been combing second-hand shops and Amazon, and more recently placed some strategic holds (with suspensions, in an attempt to time out receipt) on library DVDs (don’t have home internet or Netflix so it’s all VHS and DVD), with the plan to watch all his film acting roles in order of release (determined by info garnered from the IMDb.)

Since I’m still waiting on his first film credit to arrive from Amazon.com (not available on the .ca site – was late to checking elsewhere for obscure titles to be a completist), will start with an early Law & Order episode…

Oscars Predix 2014

Okay, time for another Oscar Predix post.  Cos there’s still a coupla can’t-be-with-me friends who might check.  Have had a rather challenging time of late and wasn’t really feeling up for doing my annual Oscar Night.  But then reckoned I’d probably regret skipping an over-20-years tradition of the annual festive night out with likeminded folk.  Also, I don’t have TV (or home internet – so, as has been the case the past few years since the neighbours with unprotected wifi went from about six to one to none, this is being composed offline day before, adding images and maybe a check of Vegas odds when posting, hopefully soon after my Saturday night shift.)

So, despite a lack of enthusiasm and poor major-release viewing record (R.I.P. Hollywood Theatre), (not to mention a considerably reduced ability to type/mouse – ow), I’ve got a few open tabs here of some recent guild winners (had not been keeping track) and Oscar-related articles (still totally recommend Steve Pond’s The Wrap), picked up a copy of Entertainment Weekly‘s annual “And the Winners Will Be…” issue, and have an Oscars app fired up, so let’s see what I come up with…

When the nominees were announced January 16, I’d only seen one of the nine titles up for Best Picture (Philomena), and that was only cos I’d happened to’ve been given a pass to a preview screening back in November (thus skipping planned first-timer Croatian entry at the EUFF – yeah, in the interest of hoping to keep such passes coming my way, went for will-have-other-chances-to-see over one-time-only.)  Though a January break in work allowed the time, ill health and other concerns kinda got in the way of any real effort to “catch up”.  Hadn’t seen some shoulda-known-could-be-contenders at VIFF last fall, and with Festival Cinemas sold to Sineplex, Vancouver venues not owned by broke-the-BC-Projectionists-union entities have been further reduced.  (Been reckoning it’s time for a blog post reconsidering how I view movies – but don’t hold your breath.) But I always say you don’t have to’ve seen the movies to predict what’s gonna win (tho’ it sure can help.)

PICTURE

Nominated: American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, 12 Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street

Though am a fan of Payne and Scorsese, haven’t seen theirs.  Also, despite stalking my local library’s Quick View shelf (of all the DVD holds I’d placed as soon as I thought to and could, have only had Dirty Wars come in), haven’t seen Captain Phillips either (which, let’s face it, is one you’d wanna see on the big screen anyway.)  But I gather it’s down to a three-way race between Hustle, Gravity and 12 Years (EW lists their respective chances at 16%, 19% and 18%, which just goes to show that having more than five Best Pic noms hardly bodes for a real majority winner, cos five evenly divvy up to those kinda percentages anyway.)  Comedies and sci-fi/fantasy aren’t usually the big winner (recent exceptions being The Artist (and before that Shakespeare in Love) and LOTR3, respectively) and Steve McQueen’s excellent horrors-of-slavery drama seemed the obvious pick… till the PGA award turned out to be a tie.  Remember presenter Mark Wahlberg’s surprise last year (“no B.S.!”) when there was a tie for Sound Editing?  The Academy claims that with its run-off system, a Best Pic tie is not an option.  I gather the latest surge is towards Gravity, but I think I’m going to go with its getting all the technical stuff (including Director) while 12 Years A Slave will take the top prize.  Or are Americans still not ready to accept their history of violent oppression?  Gee, the top category’s the toughest one this year.
Best Picture Prediction: 12 Years A Slave.

DIRECTING

Nominated: David O. Russell for American Hustle, Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity, Alexander Payne for Nebraska, Steve McQueen for 12 Years A Slave, Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street

Since the Academy’s been known to split Best Picture and Director in recent years (last year and 2005 to Ang Lee, then there was Polanski in 2002, Soderbergh in 2000, Spielberg in ’98), I’m going to assume the Academy’s way of recognising the top two Best Pic contenders this year will be to go with 12 Years A Slave for Best Pic and Cuarón for Director.  Russell may be the current “actor’s director” (his casts keep garnering noms in lead and supporting cats) with his third-film-in-a-row directing nom, but I felt like American Hustle was kinda like P.T. Anderson trying to be Scorsese (who, since The Departed won, is not “owed”, or Wolf of Wall Street might have more buzz)  Cuarón (previously nom’d for Children of Men‘s Adapted Screenplay and Editing, and foreign-language Y tu mamá también‘s Original Screenplay) is hot with blockbuster frontrunner Gravity and a new TV series.  Plus the DGA winner (which has matched up with Oscar the last decade, except when winner Ben Affleck wasn’t even nominated last year) was Cuarón.
Best Director Prediction:  Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity

WRITING

Nominated – Original Screenplay: American Hustle, Blue Jasmine, Dallas Buyers Club, Her, Nebraska
Nominated – Adapted Screenplay: Before Midnight, Captain Phillips, Philomena, 12 Years A Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street

I think Woody Allen’s in the same boat as Meryl Streep in that they’re both perennial nominees who, after many years since their last win, got some 21st century recognition, and now, tho’ they may continue to break their own records racking up nominations (this year’s Allen’s 16th writing nom, Streep’s 18th for acting), won’t get another for awhile, if ever again.  And considering voting was still going on with the most recent resurgence of Woody scandal, not to mention the lack of other big, non-acting noms for Jasmine, think we can count him out.  Glad to see Richard Linklater (and actor collaborators Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke) get recognised for the third in his Before series of intelligent, talky romantic dramas, but with no other noms, that’s all he’s getting.  Because the Writers Guild and Academy membership don’t always line up, it’s hard to use WGA awards as a guide (this year’s winners: Her and Captain Phillips.)  I usually reason that the top Best Picture contenders split the writing prizes — ie. the top winner gets the corresponding screenplay award, the kinda next down gets the other (eg. The King’s Speech and The Social Network) — or that the Best Pic-nom’d indie with an Original Screenplay nod that doesn’t have a chance at other major-category recognition gets it here (eg. Juno, Little Miss Sunshine, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Lost in Translation.)  And am kinda going with both here.  As much as I thought Philomena‘s script was fab (especially the way it contrasted the characters), I think Steve Coogan will have to be happy (at least for now) with being “Oscar Nominee Steve Coogan” and Adapted will go to 12 Years A Slave, which brought this amazing 19th-century memoir to the attention of modern Americans.  And, I’m glad to see that Spike Jonze’s refreshingly original romance Her is apparently the frontrunner.
Best Original Screenplay Prediction: Spike Jonze for Her
Best Adapted Screenplay Prediction: John Ridley for 12 Years A Slave

ACTING

Nominated – Actor in a Lead Role: Christian Bale in American Hustle, Bruce Dern in Nebraska, Leonardo DiCaprio in The Wolf of Wall Street, Chiwetel Ejiofor in 12 Years A Slave, Matthew McConnaughey in Dallas Buyers Club
Nominated – Actress in a Lead Role: Amy Adams in American Hustle, Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine, Sandra Bullock in Gravity, Judi Dench in Philomena, Meryl Streep in August: Osage County
Nominated – Actor in a Supporting Role: Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips, Bradley Cooper in American Hustle, Michael Fassbender in 12 Years A Slave, Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street, Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club
Nominated – Actress in a Supporting Role: Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine, Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle, Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years A Slave, Julia Roberts in August: Osage County, June Squibb in Nebraska

Okay, I can skim over these categories cos they’re all pretty much sure things, right?  Chiwetel Ejiofor was riveting, but actors (largest voting contingent?) love a reinvention/comeback, and everyone wants to see how wackadoo McConnaughey’s speech’ll be, eh?  EW‘s percentages show DiCaprio gaining (at 24%, over Ejiofor’s 20%, but behind McConnaughey’s 30%), but he’ll have plenty more chances.  This is Adams’ fifth nom and Blanchett and Dench (also up for roles with both dramatic and comedic aspects) have previous Supporting wins (and Streep and Bullock previous Lead wins), but Blanchett has the greater buzz (EW says 35% over Adams’ 25%) for a more engrossing role (written and directed by Woody Allen to boot.)  Tho’ LGBT roles aren’t sure winners, Leto’s a lock, right?  Probably the only possible upset is the continuing Lawrence lovefest (c’mon, she did just win for Lead last year) to edge out new find Nyong’o (EW has Nyong’o at 28%, Lawrence 26%; odds check shows Nyong’o, tho’ not sure reading fractions right.)  Nah, gonna go with SAG winners matching up.
Best Actor in a Leading Role Prediction: Matthew McConnaughey in Dallas Buyers Club
Best Actress in a Leading Role Prediction: Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine
Best Actor in a Supporting Role Prediction: Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club
Best Actress in a Supporting Role Prediction: Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years A Slave

CINEMATOGRAPHY, EDITING & EFFECTS

Nominated – Cinematography: The Grandmaster, Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, Prisoners
Nominated – Film Editing: American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, 12 Years A Slave
Nominated – Visual Effects: Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Iron Man 3, The Lone Ranger, Star Trek: Into Darkness

The ASC (which had 7 noms – same 5 plus Captain Phillips and 12 Years A Slave) went with Gravity, but I’m more weighing the Oscar trend of late to reward FX-laden camera work in Best Pic noms like Life of Pi, Hugo, Inception and Avatar.  (With Deakins’ nod, a Canadian aside: yay for Denis Villenueve and Jean-Marc Vallée – Canadians’ American debuts getting noticed – too bad we’re missing Sarah Polley in Documentary Feature.)  Film Editing usually lines up with Directing (well, ‘cept that year a non-major-cat-nom’d Bourne film got in there) and Visual Effects, well, I might’ve seen the latest Iron Man (alas, on video instead of a big screen (oh, wait, that was another library hold that did come in in time – probably cos, like Dirty Wars, I wasn’t anticipating Oscar but just wanted to see it) but really, despite Downey Jr., did we need another of those?) and Star Trek (great score, BTW) but I also saw Gravity (how long was that opening shot? wow!)  (By the way, the pre-Big Night Sci-Tech awards are this year honouring those who’ve worked in film processing (that’s actual, physical film, as, alas, digital takes over) – see: The Wrap: Academy’s Sci-Tech Awards to Celebrate the Dying Art of Film.)  (Also, more Best Pic noms shot on film than I expected (only Dallas, Her and Nebraska (yeah, in B&W – “film look” effects added later – jeez) totally on digital – Captain used 16mm, Gravity 65mm, Philomena flashbacks were on Super16) – see NYU Tisch School of the Arts’ blog: Special Programs, 35mm Filmmaking Part II: Best Picture Formats.)
Best Cinematography Prediction: Gravity
Best Film Editing Predicton: Gravity
Best Visual Effects Prediction: Gravity

DESIGN & MAKEUP

Nominated – Production Design: American Hustle, Gravity, The Great Gatsby, Her, 12 Years A Slave
Nominated – Costume Design: American Hustle, The Grandmaster, The Great Gatsby, The Invisible Woman, 12 Years A Slave
Nominated – Makeup & Hairstyling: Dallas Buyers Club, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, The Lone Ranger

Ah, right, it’s no longer “Art Direction” and “& Hairstyling” has been added.  And the Costumes category’s back to being dominated by historical rather than fantasy (not sure if The Grandmaster qualifies as the latter – only Costume nom didn’t see.)  And I actually have to have “Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa” as a possible search term that could bring someone to my blog?  (Tho’ the Academy actually had to screen it (see: The Wrap: ‘All Is Lost’ & ‘Bad Grandpa’? Oscar Screenings Make For Strange Double Features) — and the it-was-bad-enough-sitting-thru-the-trailer Lone Ranger.)  Apparently the Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild Awards have period and contemporary categories, as well as Special Effects, which is what Bad Grandpa won for – Dallas took period.  The Costume Designers Guild also has fantasy, contemporary and period – the latter won by 12 Years over Hustle and Gatsby (tho’ that guild’s choices and Oscars don’t match up very often, interesting to note.)  Here’s where the danger of American Hustle not winning any of the big categories might get voters to consider its ’70s setting and so give it something for that (or do they really do that? – might it turn out Hustle just gets shut out? – or will acting branch members be pushing for something bigger like Russell for writing and directing so many of them?)  But if voters are still mailed DVDs, the extras on The Great Gatsby could be the convincer for its two noms (or is Gravity gonna sweep all its tech categories?)  The only one of these three I’m vaguely confident about is Dallas Buyers Club for makeup.  Though let’s just check… ah, seems Vegas odds are with Gatsby.
Best Production Design Prediction: The Great Gatsby
Best Costume Design Prediction: The Great Gatsby
Best Makeup & Hairstyling Prediction: Dallas Buyers Club

SOUND

Nominated – Sound Editing: All Is Lost, Captain Phillips, Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Lone Survivor
Nominated – Sound Mixing: Captain Phillips, Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Inside Llewyn Davis, Lone Survivor

The Motion Picture Sound Editors divide up their awards into so many sub-categories (eg. Sound Effects & Foley and Dialogue & ADR, plus separate categories for Animated, Foreign, Documentary, Musical), it’s hard to tell what the industry thought was best – looks like Gravity and Captain Phillips got the top couple.  And then Mixing has more to do with the dialogue and score?  So, action in space or water?  Tho’ you’re not s’posed to hear anything in space, gonna go with Gravity on these.
Best Sound Editing Prediction: Gravity
Best Sound Mixing Prediction: Gravity

MUSIC

Nominated – Original Score: John Williams for The Book Thief, Steven Price for Gravity, William Butler and Owen Pallett for Her, Alexandre Desplat for Philomena, Thomas Newman for Saving Mr. Banks
Nominated – Original Song: “Happy” from Despicable Me 2, “Let It Go” from Frozen, “The Moon Song” from Her, “Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom

And then there was the nominated-yet-not-nominated song from the Christian movie nobody’s heard of except enough nominators who got some kind of overly heavy sell from its composer who also happens to be a music branch executive committee member (see: Hollywood Reporter: Academy Disqualifies Oscar-Nominated Song “Alone Yet Not Alone”) and no replacement nominee was offered.  Also, for the first time, the Academy had a separate concert to showcase the Music category nominees (so no songs to be performed on the Oscar Night telecast at all? – ah, no, apparently all four are – see: The Wrap: Oscar Concert: The Academy Plays a New Tune, and It’s (Mostly) a Hit.)  “The Moon Song” was the only song nom I’ve heard (another nice song sung by Scarlett Johansson – the previous nom she sang was last year’s closing credits piece on doc Chasing Ice.)  By the time I got around to thinking I might see Animated Feature nominee Frozen, there were “sing-along” presentations as well as 3D screenings, so reckon its song is a lock.  I’d guess the score’d be between the three with a Best Pic nom, and so, uh, another one for Gravity?
Best Original Score Prediction: Steven Price for Gravity
Best Original Song Prediction: “Let It Go” from Frozen

FOREIGN, ANIMATED & DOCUMENTARY FEATURES

Nominated – Foreign Language Film: The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium), The Great Beauty (Italy), The Hunt (Denmark), The Missing Picture (Cambodia), Omar (Palestine)
Nominated – Animated Feature: The Croods, Despicable Me 2, Ernest & Celestine, Frozen, The Wind Rises
Nominated – Documentary Feature: The Act of Killing, Cutie and the Boxer, Dirty Wars, The Square, 20 Feet From Stardom

Okay, lessee.  All the foreign films have played Vancouver (Omar just opened this weekend, The Missing Picture was at VIFF and will be part of Diverciné at the Cinémathèque in the coming weeks), and there’s been opportunity for all the doc features too (The Square was at the recent Victoria filmfest since being nominated.)  The only animated feature yet to play is the Miyazaki (s’posedly his last – tho’ he did win for Spirited Away.)  Which is all to say, though docs and foreign films are a huge part of my cinematic diet, and I coulda seen nearly all of ’em, well, no, I haven’t.  I would love to see Vinterberg’s tension-filled The Hunt win (was one of my top films at VIFF 2012), and I understand it still has a good chance, but I think the frontrunner’s been the Italian Beauty, which is in current release (and described by EW as “Felliniesque”.)  Denmark’s also a distant 6th behind Italy on noms and wins, tho’ Mads Mikkelsen might be more recognisable to Americans (he was in a Bond film, after all) than the Italians.  Argh, I’m waffling.  Loved the delightful French misfit friends Ernest et Célestine (the only nom I’ve seen in its category), but seems Frozen‘s the one to beat.  And since The Act of Killing combines a tough topic (the “Indonesian killing fields”) with surreal cinema-as-therapy (as it were – gets former death squad participants to express their experiences by making a movie), think that’ll win over docs that deal with arts and war/revolution separately.
Best Foreign Language Film Prediction: The Great Beauty
Best Animated Feature Prediction: Frozen
Best Documentary Feature Prediction: The Act of Killing

SHORTS

Nominated – Live Action Short: Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me), Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything, Helium, Pitääkö mun kaikki hoitaa? (Do I Have To Take Care Of Everything?), The Voorman Problem
Nominated – Animated Short: Feral, Get A Horse!, Mr. Hublot, Possessions, Room on the Broom
Nominated – Documentary Short: CaveDigger, Facing Fear, Karama Has No Walls, The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life, Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

I’ve found that seeing the shorts can help predict what the Academy’d go for.  Tho’ the Oscar Nominated Shorts 2014 touring program of Live Action and Animation came thru Vancouver, only saw the Live Action.  Which is okay, cos based on the fact the “lost reel” Disney short was a big thing at an industry event last fall (premiere plus master class with director Laruen MacMullen – “the first woman to direct Mickey Mouse”), I’d assume that’ll win in the Animated.  In the Live Action category, I’d say the French Just Before Losing Everything is the strongest (not the kinda-overdone Spanish child soldiers one, That Wasn’t Me, which is EW‘s pick), but after the lesser The Shore won a few years ago, I realise that checking the credits for known names can be important too.  So I’m going with the comic The Voorman Problem, cos it has recognisable actors (head hobbit Martin Freeman and a devilish Tom Hollander), plus Kevin Spacey is thanked in the end credits and it’s the only one in English.  As for the doc shorts (which never seem to make it to Vancouver while Seattle gets ’em), let’s go with Vegas odds which predict it’ll be The Lady in Number 6, which, according to EW (also going for that one), features “a 109-year-old piano-playing Holocaust survivor.”
Best Live Action Short Prediction: The Voorman Problem
Best Animated Short Prediction: Get A Horse!
Best Documentary Short Prediction: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

And, hey, that’s it – all categories covered.  So seems I’m going with Gravity being the big winner but not of the top prize? (and nothing for Russell’s Hustle?)  Should be able to get this posted well before Sunday comes (and the snow, s’posedly – hear rain’s predicted for L.A. – will there be a canoped red carpet?)  Enjoyed Ellen DeGeneres last time she hosted (how many years ago was that? recall it was the first year the Canadian NTN trivia feed didn’t match up at the bar, so instead of concentrating on winning trivia, just had to watch the show.)  Will Peter O’Toole or Philip Seymour Hoffman be the final In Memoriam image?  Might they include Roger Ebert? (he had a screenplay credit – tho’ no Oscar nom, certainly influential as a critic.)  (That segment is usually put together weeks ahead of the show, but they could s’posedly re-edit to include Harold Ramis – see: The Wrap: The Oscars’ ‘In Memoriam’ Problem: Who’ll Make The Cut? and Entertainment Weekly: Explainer – How the Oscar ‘in memoriam’ segment is decided.)  Sigh.

Oscars Predix 2013

It’s that time again – Academy Awards Eve! (well, by the time this posts, it’ll be morning-of.)  And, once again, I’ve left figuring out my bets till the last minute.  Trying to start my annual rambling blog post on my dinner break at work (5:45pm Saturday), then hope to finish the rest offline tonight and post it first thing when I’m back in the morning.  (I might go back after my pre-noon timestamp to fix a typo or adjust formatting or add an image, but no after-the fact changes to predix!  For proof, see previous year’ embarrassing major category wrong calls living on here on this blog/the internet – no, I’m not providing links this time!)  I have the latest “Our Fearless Oscar Predictions” issue of Entertainment Weekly on hand and have been looking at various bits of info on the internet here and there the past week or so (still no home ‘net access, so that’s been only occasionally when checking email at work or the library), but I haven’t done any real “research” for stats or trends this year.  Maybe cos I don’t see many big or mainstream films anymore (especially since the second-run Hollywood Theatre closed spring before last) so am not as into thinking about these things as much as I used to be.

When the nominations were announced January 10th, I’d only seen 4 of the 9 Best Pic noms (Beasts of the Southern Wild and Argo on separate visits to Seattle, Amour at the filmfest, and Lincoln in December.)  Prior to that, I had put a bunch of DVD titles on hold at the library, based on known shortlists (eg. foreign, animated features) and in hopes of catching some of the year’s hits (eg. Hunger Games) ahead of the show so as not to miss out on references and jokes.  In recent weeks, I’ve tried to do some cinema catch-up, but had vertigo and a long-lingering cold so have been dizzy and tired a lot and for a while there was wary of having a disruptive cough, so 3 Best Pic noms were left till this week.

For the 4th year, the revamped nomination process meant to produce 5 to 10 Best Pic nom possibilities (I believe the idea was more noms mean more popular titles mean more TV viewers – proved right that first year with Avatar fans tuning in) have resulted in a large field (9.)  The nominations announcement seemed to be way earlier this year (last year’s was Jan. 24 with the show Feb. 26 – and didn’t it used to be on a Tuesday morning, not a Thursday?), yet voting didn’t start till later and was only 12 days (Feb. 8 – 19, or something like that.)  And I think this is the first year it’s been all online (though members who didn’t register were apparently sent paper ballots to ensure the highest possible participation.)

But enough of the incidental “I think this is new” stuff!  Onto my picks/predictions, starting with the big one…

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Misérables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty
Actually, forget I just called those previous notes “incidental” – the fact the voting didn’t happen till well after the nominations were announced may very well affect this year’s outcome.  When the noms were announced (and even before), it was rather assumed that it would be Lincoln taking the top prize — big name director and actors, fine production, story from history that seemed especially relevant now (president about to start second term dealing with divided congress), the type of film the Academy likes to honour.  And the fact that Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow did not receive Directing nominations for their Best Pic-nom’d films (Argo and Zero Dark Thirty, respectively) lent weight to the talk of it being a sure thing for Lincoln and its helmer, Steven Spielberg, cos since when does a film without a Director nomination win Best Picture?  That would be 1990 when Driving Miss Daisy “apparently directed itself”, as I recall host Billy Crystal joking (only cos I have an Oscars Greatest Moments compilation video that I used to watch once a year.)  Or make that 2013?  Cos apparently many feel Affleck’s omission was a snub and so support for him and his film has built — Affleck and Argo have won a number of guild awards in recent weeks, including the PGA (Producers Guild) and DGA (Directors Guild), which are usually predictors for Best Picture and Directing Oscars — the idea being that awarding him Best Picture (he’s also the film’s producer, along with Grant Heslov and George Clooney) would rectify that.  Affleck is a talented director (if you haven’t seen them, check out Gone Baby Gone and The Town.)  And there are a good portion of voters who are actors, and many of them would know him personally, and perhaps like the idea of actors writing (which he already has an Oscar for — with Matt Damon for Good Will Hunting) and producing and directing and getting recognition for beyond-acting projects (eg. past actors-turned-Oscar-winning-directors Warren Beatty, Kevin Costner, Mel Gibson, Clint Eastwood.)  I liked Argo a lot — the mix of tension (even tho’ you know how it turns out) and humour, the design and camerawork — and think that’s due in large part to its direction.  But the director wasn’t nominated, and it’s rather thought he should’ve been, so I’m going with the idea that that sentiment’s momentum has overtaken Lincoln and Argo will take the Picture/Producer prize
Prediction: Argo

DIRECTING

Nominees: Michael Haneke for Amour; Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild; Ang Lee for Life of Pi; Steven Spielberg for Lincoln; David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook
So if the Best Picture winner’s director isn’t an option, which one is?  Tho’ apparently David O. Russell’s getting notice for earning nominations two years in a row for himself as director and for multiple cast members in acting categories — last year’s The Fighter had 3 Supporting acting noms (Amy Adams, Melissa Leo, Christian Bale) and 2 wins (for Leo and Bale); this year’s Silver Linings Playbook has noms in each acting category (Bradley Cooper for Leading Actor, Jennifer Lawrence for Leading Actress, Robert De Niro for Supporting Actor, Jacki Weaver for Supporting Actress) for a total of 4 — Silver Linings Playbook is a comedy, and tho’ last year’s winner (The Artist) was a comedy, Oscar prefers drama for Picture and Director.  Also, he didn’t get a DGA nomination.  (DGA and Oscar noms really didn’t match up this year – DGA included Affleck, Bigelow and Les Mis‘ Tom Hooper (who somehow previously won for The King’s Speech over far-more-brilliant director and far-more-zeitgeist work The Social Network) – and don’t they usually go hand-in-hand?  So I’d say it’s between Steven Spielberg (this year makes 7 director noms, with 2 previous wins – for Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan, the latter in another year Picture and Director prizes were split) and Ang Lee (this year makes 3 director noms, with 1 previous win – for Brokeback Mountain, another year Picture and Director awards got split.)  Cos Haneke’s a foreigner (with its 5 nominations, Amour can win under Foreign Language Film and/or Screenplay, or even Actress) and Zeitlin’s a first-timer on a smaller, artier film.  I dunno — Lincoln‘s got 12 noms overall and Pi‘s got 11.  I’ll go with Spielberg for director and Pi‘ll win other big categories.
Prediction: Steven Spielberg for Lincoln

FILM EDITING

Nominees: William Goldenberg for Argo; Tim Squyres for Life of Pi; Michael Kahn for Lincoln; Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers for Silver Linings Playbook; Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg for Zero Dark Thirty
Tho’ Film Editing and Directing noms aren’t really matching up this year (and haven’t necessarily paired up in terms of wins in recent years), I still usually think of these categories together, so am listing Editing here.  And assuming an Argo Best Pic win, I’m going to go with Argo‘s going back and forth between dramatic tension and comedy over the same editor’s work in Zero Dark (which, especially thru the final raid sequence, also maintains the tension, despite knowing the historical outcome.)  Tho’ yeah, there could be vote-splitting (Goldenberg’s previously been nominated for Best Pic noms Seabiscuit and The Insider, and also worked on Affleck’s Gone Baby Gone and Michael Mann’s Ali and Heat.)  If that happens, maybe it’d be Michael Kahn, who’s had 7 previous nominations, most working with Spielberg.  But no, the American Cinema Editors’ awards also double-nominated Goldenberg (tho’ they separate Comedy or Musical from Dramatic – Silver Linings won in the former category) and went with Argo.
Prediction: William Goldenberg for Argo

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Nominees: Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook; Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln; Hugh Jackman for Les Misérables; Joaquin Phoenix for The Master; Denzel Washington for Flight
Daniel Day-Lewis as the 16th US President over Hugh Jackman’s Jean Valjean – this is the one sure thing since Lincoln came out, right?  And a record-breaker – first-time-ever for someone getting 3 Leading Actor awards.
Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Nominees: Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty; Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook; Emmanuelle Riva for Amour;  Quvenzhané Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild; Naomi Watts for The Impossible
Apparently this is the widest-ever age range in the Best Actress category – at 9, Wallis is the youngest-ever nominee in this category, and turning 86 on Oscar night, Riva is the oldest.   Southern Wild‘s little girl was great, but how much is a kid (5 (tho’ lied that she was 6, the minimum age being considered) when she auditioned for the role) really acting? — wouldn’t’ it be more the director drawing out the right performance? (so nominate him — instead of Affleck?) Was the Southern Wild fan base really so strong and wanting to see Wallis on the red carpet that she got in over other actresses?  Or were there really no juicy Oscar-bait roles for women last year?  (I didn’t see many Hollywood films last year, so dunno who to suggest should’ve gotten a spot over her.)  Naomi Watts has a previous nom (for 21 Grams – somehow I thought she had more) but she might be like Kate Winslet – tho’ a terrific actor, a foreigner having to wait thru years of worthy performances till the Academy realises they never actually gotten around to giving her a statue (Winslet won on her 6th nomination, so Watts has a while to go yet.)  Tho’ Riva might be known to film folk for a career reaching back to 1959 classic Hiroshima, Mon Amour, I’d say it’s unlikely an elderly French star would win over an American starlet (and without a show-stopping playing-a-famous-person role like Marion Cotillard (who’s not elderly!) had with Edith Piaf in La Vie en Rose.)  Which is why I gather it’s down to Chastain and Lawrence.  (Tho’ Entertainment Weekly‘s odds show Riva still in there, perhaps benefiting from a split in the young Americans vote? – they give Lawrence a 30% chance of winning over Chastain’s 25% and Riva’s 25%.)  Usually I’d lean towards the dramatic role over the comedic, especially in a lead acting category, but if Argo can win Best Pic without a directing nom like Driving Miss Daisy did, then Jennifer Lawrence can win Best Actress for a comedy like Gwyneth Paltrow did with Shakespeare in Love.  Also, tho’ Chastain is good in Zero Dark, her CIA character’s more internal (save for the one outburst scene with her superior, which they’ll probably use as the nomination clip), while Lawrence’s Silver Linings role allows more expressive opportunities (both comic and serious.)
Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Nominees: Alan Arkin for Argo; Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook; Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master; Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln; Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained
This is a really interesting category as all nominees have previously won Oscars.  I think Jones was considered the front-runner (especially early on with the assumptions of it’s gonna be a Lincoln night) but I’m thinking De Niro hasn’t won for a while (7 nominations since 1975, last won in 1980) and after all the silly comedy roles he’s done in recent years (eg. Analyze This, Meet The Fockers, and their sequels), this one, as the obsessed-with-betting-on-football dad, might be the right mix of comedy involving serious problems to offer a Hollywood heavyweight (heheh – that 1980 win was for Raging Bull, eh) some later-in-career recognition.  (EW suggests Jones has a 30% chance and De Niro 31% — that’s a pretty close call.)
Prediction: Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Nominees: Amy Adams for The Master; Sally Field for Lincoln; Anne Hathaway for Les Misérables; Helen Hunt for The Sessions; Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook
The Sessions is the only film in this category I haven’t seen (it played the filmfest, but I’m not a huge fan of Helen Hunt and already saw a good documentary dealing with the same subject last year (an Australian film called Scarlet Road.)  I think anyone who saw Les Mis won’t soon forget the impact of Anne Hathaway’s heartbreaking rendition of “I Dreamed A Dream” (perhaps the one not-over-directed scene in the whole movie, allowing the emotion to grow thru a single take), the song everyone knows even if they don’t know the most famous musical in the world (isn’t Les Mis’ tagline something to that effect? – see it cos everyone else has!) cos a woman who didn’t look like a singing star became one after singing it on a TV talent show a few years ago.  Plus we all know (thanks to pre-release hype) that the movie wasn’t made the usual lipsynch-to-playback way but all the singing was filmed live – so doesn’t that make the performance all the more impressive?  And Sally Field already has two (and isn’t De Niro.)
Prediction: Anne Hathaway for Les Misérables

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees: Michael Haneke for Amour; Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained; Michael Gatins for Flight; Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola for Moonrise Kingdom; Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty
This is a tough one.  The Writers Guild award went to Mark Boal for Zero Dark, tho’ the film’s come under fire for making it look like waterboarding led to Bin Laden (I don’t think it does – tho’ it certainly could’ve done with including something about how different agencies looked upon torture at the time – not even an incidental character suggests that perhaps other methods of interrogation work better, it’s just accepted that this is how they work.)  I dunno when the WGA voting closed (the winners were announced a week ago) or how having Amour and Django in the Oscar mix instead of Looper and The Master affects things.  Amour is probably famed European filmmaker Haneke’s most accessible script, but even with a foreign language film getting a Best Picture nod, voters will probably limit his take to the Foreign category.  I enjoy Tarantino characters and dialogue and all, but Django (like most of his stuff) is rather on the excessive side.  Without any other noms, quirky Moonrise doesn’t have a chance.  I’m gonna go with Zero Dark Thirty over Amour – maybe cos this would be a way of awarding it something (he previously won for The Hurt Locker (as writer and producer), so maybe this’d be a way of recognising Team Bigelow?)
Prediction: Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees: Chris Tario for Argo; Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild; David Magee for Life of Pi, Tony Kushner for Lincoln, David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook
Tho’ I’ve seen all five, the only previous material from which films in this category were adapted I’m familiar with is Yann Martel’s novel.  Not that I think people vote for the adaptation, it’s more the film and whether it matches up with Best Picture.  So this is another Lincoln or Argo category, right?  WGA gave it to Argo (based on a 2007 Wired article), but I’m going with famous playwright Tony Kushner adapting historian/Sunday shows commentator Doris Kearns-Goodwin’s well-known book, Team of Rivals.
Prediction: Tony Kushner for Lincoln

I’m too tired.  Must go faster, be more direct!

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Nominees: Anna Karenina; Django Unchained; Life of Pi; Lincoln; Skyfall
I would love to see 10-time nominee Roger Deakins win for his gorgeous shadows-and-silhouettes work on the Bond movie, but gather the word is it’ll be Life of Pi, which had an effective mix of CGI’d “reality” and surreal beauty.  (Extra note: only 2 of the 9 Best Pic noms were shot on 35mm (Django & Lincoln.)  Alas, the cinemas I saw them at screened them on DCP.)
Prediction: Life of Pi

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Nominees: Anna Karenina; The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey; Les Misérables; Life of Pi; Lincoln
Looks like they changed the name of this category from “Art Direction”.  If there were still a Lincoln sweep expected, this’d be easier.  Think I’ll still go with closest-to-Best-Pic-possibility of the group, historic Lincoln.
Prediction: Lincoln

COSTUME DESIGN

Nominees: Anna Karenina; Les Misérables; Lincoln; Mirror Mirror; Snow White and the Huntsman
What’s the recent record for historical over fantasy?  I dunno – a Best Pic nominee or the colourful and lavish (what I gather from pictures I’ve seen – didn’t see the film) “stylised version of czarist Russian fashion” (according to EW.) I’ll go with Anna Karenina over Les Misérables (ha – watch it be the other historical one, Lincoln.)
Prediction: Anna Karenina

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Nominees: Hitchcock; The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey; Les Misérables
Another category name adjustment – now specifically with hair!  I had no desire to see The Hobbit.  I loved the costumes and hair in Hitchcock.  But think it’ll go to the Best Pic-nominated option (a better reason than EW‘s “It takes a lot of work to make Anne Hathway and Hugh Jackman look as ugly as they do in Les Misérables“?)
Prediction: Les Misérables

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Nominees: Amour (Austria); Kon-Tiki (Norway); No (Chile); A Royal Affair (Denmark); War Witch (Canada)
If Amour isn’t translated to “Love”, I dunno what was wrong with just using the original French title of Rebelle — that’s what “War Witch” was released as here in English Canada.  Norway’s entry hasn’t played in Vancouver, but I saw all the others – all very good.  But what does it matter having seen any of them when one has other nominations, including Best Picture?
Prediction: Amour

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Nominees: 5 Broken Cameras; The Gatekeepers; How To Survive A Plague; The Invisible War; Searching For Sugar Man
All but The Gatekeepers has played Vancouver (tho’ heard about it on one of my NPR podcasts, so must have North American release soon.)  I could’ve seen The Invisible War at the filmfest or its short run at the VIFC  but didn’t (they even brought it and two other noms back for one matinee show each this past week – unfortunately the one day I couldn’t attend was the day they were playing the one I hadn’t seen), and my library hold is still #23 on 4 copies.  Heard one of the 5 Broken Cameras directors was stopped for questioning at LAX when he was flying in ahead of the show (and that Michael Moore made some calls and all was well.)  Doesn’t matter tho’, cos I think everyone who saw or even heard about Searching For Sugar Man wants to see its humble subject, forgotten musician Rodriguez, get further due at the Oscars.  Also, it’s just such a great story of (re)discovery.
Prediction: Searching For Sugar Man

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Nominees: Inocente; Kings Point; Mondays at Racine; Open Heart; Redemption
This category was not included in the touring Oscar Shorts program that played in Vancouver, and I have made no effort to seek out the films or even info about them online.  There was a brief interview on Democracy Now! with the makers of Redemption, about New York City binners, but I think they used to work on the show so that doesn’t make them high-profile frontrunners.  EW says the category is a “toss up”, hedging its bets by mentioning two titles: “we give the edge to Innocente, the moving story of a homeless teenage artist in California, over Kings Point, about a Florida retirement community.  If old-age-themed Amour starts taking unexpected prizes, maybe, like that short about the little girl in India the year of Slumdog Millionaire, the shorts about elderly folks (Kings Point and Live Action nominee Henry) will stand a better chance.  I dunno that EW‘s shorts predix record is so hot, but okay, Californian artists might appeal to Hollywood, I’ll go with Innocente.
Prediction: Innocente

ANIMATED FEATURE

Nominees: Brave; Frankenweenie; ParaNorman; The Pirates! Band of Misfits; Wreck-It Ralph
I saw Brave in 35mm in a theatre last summer – with horrible projection, but was a good movie.  Could assume Pixar would continue its Oscar reign.  I had plenty of opportunity to see Wreck-It Ralph on the big screen after the nominations were announced but really had no desire to see it (like Cars, a computer animated video game kid movie just doesn’t appeal to me – those ad posters at my bus stop didn’t help.)  But now I hear it’s pegged to win (is it from Pixar too?)  It won the Annie award for Best Feature and Directing.  The other three, all stop-motion, I saw on DVDs from the library.  Tho’ Hugh Grant voiced the misfit pirate, that one’s story and characters weren’t especially outstanding.  Tim Burton’s B&W ’50s-styled frankenpet tale and from-the-makers-of-Coraline ParaNorman about bullied outsiders saving their town from a 300-year-old witch’s curse both had fun movie references.  One of the DVDs had a trailer for Wreck-It Ralph that gave me the impression it had way more to it than the stupid-looking poster, but by then it was only playing out the valley and I was outta time.  Of the 4 I saw, I think I liked Norman best, but if Ralph‘s the better bet, better go with that.
Prediction: Wreck-It Ralph

ANIMATED SHORT

Nominees: Adam and Dog; Fresh Guacamole; Head Over Heels; Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare”; Paperman
These shorts I did see (on Blu-ray on the big screen with an audience.)  All dialogue-free, all very good.  Doubt the Simpsons short (of Maggie Simpson keeping an eye out for a butterfly at an Ayn Rand daycare – heheh) has a chance – it’s nothing much different story- or animation-wise from what’s on the TV show.  Fresh Guacamole is 2 minutes of colourful stop-motion visual surprises (like a chop of a vegetable producing dice.)  Clever and poignant Head over Heels (the only non-US production, from the UK) could fit into the theme of aging, with its longtime couple living together yet apart (one on the floor, the other on the ceiling.)  I think it’s down to my two favourites: the paper airplane romance Paperman and somewhat wandering but beautiful evolution of Adam and Dog.  The former’s Disney, and I hear the Academy likes to go indie with the shorts, so let’s say first man’s best friend will be first.
Prediction: Adam and Dog

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Nominees: Asad; Buzkashi Boys; Curfew; Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw); Henry
Also got to see all these (same touring program as Animated – why Vancouver didn’t get the Documentary Shorts, I dunno.)  The Belgian one has camera elements that might appeal to film industry voters – EW lists it as its bet.. while also naming the Somali refugee-cast Asad and Canadian (tho’ they call it French – well that was the language spoken in it) old-aged-themed Henry.  I agree the fable-like Asad may have an edge, but thinking back to The New Tenants and The Shore (which I shoulda known would win last year, even tho’ I personally didn’t think it was the best), I’m going to go with the slick Curfew, a compact, stylin’, darkly-tinged, well-acted story of a downer guy babysitting his estranged sister’s precocious daughter (and the lone English-language piece.)
Prediction: Curfew

ORIGINAL SCORE

Nominees: Dario Marianelli for Anna Karenina; Alexandre Desplat for Argo; Mychael Danna for Life of Pi; John Williams for Lincoln; Thomas Newman for Skyfall
All familiar movie composer names, tho’ this is Danna’s first Oscar nomination (the others have multiples.)  Maybe it’s just rooting for the Canadian, but I’m gonna go with Danna’s Indian-flavoured Life of Pi music.
Prediction: Mychael Danna for Life of Pi

ORIGINAL SONG

Nominees: “Before My Time” from Chasing Ice; “Everbody Needs A Best Friend” from Ted; “Pi’s Lullaby” from Life of Pi; “Skyfall” from Skyfall; “Suddenly” from Les Misérables
As much as it’d be fun to see host Seth MacFarlane win for Ted, Adele will be adding another trophy to her shelf, right?  And she’ll be there to perform it, right?  (Cos they didn’t let us hear the 2 (only 2 – that hardly takes any time compared to 5) nominated songs on last year’s show – can’t believe they could only come up with 2 songs and passed on including muppets in the show.)
Prediction: “Skyfall” from Skyfall

SOUND EDITING

Nominees: Argo; Django Unchained; Life of Pi; Skyfall; Zero Dark Thirty
I have no idea.  Would say it’s between higher-up-on-the-Best-Picture list Argo and Life of Pi, but EW says Skyfall.  Ah, go with Argo.
Prediction: Argo

SOUND MIXING

Nominees: Argo; Les Misérables; Life of Pi; Lincoln; Skyfall
Okay, this one I reason that cos it was a musical involving live singing, that’d be harder than usual sound mixing goes, so Les Mis will get the recognition.
Prediction: Les Misérables

VISUAL EFFECTS

Nominees: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey; Life of Pi; Marvel’s The Avengers; Prometheus; Snow White and the Huntsman
Only one of these I saw was the Best Pic nom.  But I think if there’s only one with a Best Pic nom, and it was the one with the lifelike tiger and other animals in it, along with water and reflections and stuff, it’s the obvious one to take Visual Effects.
Prediction: Life of Pi

Okay, gotta post this (it’s 11:30am Sunday.)  So I’m going with 3 guys getting their 3rd, eh? (well, Spielberg’s won others as producer, but his 3rd for Directing – plus 3rd for Day-Lewis and De Niro.)  Will host Seth MacFarlane (who’s made plenty of fun of stars like Affleck and Hunt in his animated TV series Family Guy) sing in Brian or Stewie’s voice?  Break out the homemades!