Oscars Predix 2013

It’s that time again – Academy Awards Eve! (well, by the time this posts, it’ll be morning-of.)  And, once again, I’ve left figuring out my bets till the last minute.  Trying to start my annual rambling blog post on my dinner break at work (5:45pm Saturday), then hope to finish the rest offline tonight and post it first thing when I’m back in the morning.  (I might go back after my pre-noon timestamp to fix a typo or adjust formatting or add an image, but no after-the fact changes to predix!  For proof, see previous year’ embarrassing major category wrong calls living on here on this blog/the internet – no, I’m not providing links this time!)  I have the latest “Our Fearless Oscar Predictions” issue of Entertainment Weekly on hand and have been looking at various bits of info on the internet here and there the past week or so (still no home ‘net access, so that’s been only occasionally when checking email at work or the library), but I haven’t done any real “research” for stats or trends this year.  Maybe cos I don’t see many big or mainstream films anymore (especially since the second-run Hollywood Theatre closed spring before last) so am not as into thinking about these things as much as I used to be.

When the nominations were announced January 10th, I’d only seen 4 of the 9 Best Pic noms (Beasts of the Southern Wild and Argo on separate visits to Seattle, Amour at the filmfest, and Lincoln in December.)  Prior to that, I had put a bunch of DVD titles on hold at the library, based on known shortlists (eg. foreign, animated features) and in hopes of catching some of the year’s hits (eg. Hunger Games) ahead of the show so as not to miss out on references and jokes.  In recent weeks, I’ve tried to do some cinema catch-up, but had vertigo and a long-lingering cold so have been dizzy and tired a lot and for a while there was wary of having a disruptive cough, so 3 Best Pic noms were left till this week.

For the 4th year, the revamped nomination process meant to produce 5 to 10 Best Pic nom possibilities (I believe the idea was more noms mean more popular titles mean more TV viewers – proved right that first year with Avatar fans tuning in) have resulted in a large field (9.)  The nominations announcement seemed to be way earlier this year (last year’s was Jan. 24 with the show Feb. 26 – and didn’t it used to be on a Tuesday morning, not a Thursday?), yet voting didn’t start till later and was only 12 days (Feb. 8 – 19, or something like that.)  And I think this is the first year it’s been all online (though members who didn’t register were apparently sent paper ballots to ensure the highest possible participation.)

But enough of the incidental “I think this is new” stuff!  Onto my picks/predictions, starting with the big one…

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Misérables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty
Actually, forget I just called those previous notes “incidental” – the fact the voting didn’t happen till well after the nominations were announced may very well affect this year’s outcome.  When the noms were announced (and even before), it was rather assumed that it would be Lincoln taking the top prize — big name director and actors, fine production, story from history that seemed especially relevant now (president about to start second term dealing with divided congress), the type of film the Academy likes to honour.  And the fact that Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow did not receive Directing nominations for their Best Pic-nom’d films (Argo and Zero Dark Thirty, respectively) lent weight to the talk of it being a sure thing for Lincoln and its helmer, Steven Spielberg, cos since when does a film without a Director nomination win Best Picture?  That would be 1990 when Driving Miss Daisy “apparently directed itself”, as I recall host Billy Crystal joking (only cos I have an Oscars Greatest Moments compilation video that I used to watch once a year.)  Or make that 2013?  Cos apparently many feel Affleck’s omission was a snub and so support for him and his film has built — Affleck and Argo have won a number of guild awards in recent weeks, including the PGA (Producers Guild) and DGA (Directors Guild), which are usually predictors for Best Picture and Directing Oscars — the idea being that awarding him Best Picture (he’s also the film’s producer, along with Grant Heslov and George Clooney) would rectify that.  Affleck is a talented director (if you haven’t seen them, check out Gone Baby Gone and The Town.)  And there are a good portion of voters who are actors, and many of them would know him personally, and perhaps like the idea of actors writing (which he already has an Oscar for — with Matt Damon for Good Will Hunting) and producing and directing and getting recognition for beyond-acting projects (eg. past actors-turned-Oscar-winning-directors Warren Beatty, Kevin Costner, Mel Gibson, Clint Eastwood.)  I liked Argo a lot — the mix of tension (even tho’ you know how it turns out) and humour, the design and camerawork — and think that’s due in large part to its direction.  But the director wasn’t nominated, and it’s rather thought he should’ve been, so I’m going with the idea that that sentiment’s momentum has overtaken Lincoln and Argo will take the Picture/Producer prize
Prediction: Argo

DIRECTING

Nominees: Michael Haneke for Amour; Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild; Ang Lee for Life of Pi; Steven Spielberg for Lincoln; David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook
So if the Best Picture winner’s director isn’t an option, which one is?  Tho’ apparently David O. Russell’s getting notice for earning nominations two years in a row for himself as director and for multiple cast members in acting categories — last year’s The Fighter had 3 Supporting acting noms (Amy Adams, Melissa Leo, Christian Bale) and 2 wins (for Leo and Bale); this year’s Silver Linings Playbook has noms in each acting category (Bradley Cooper for Leading Actor, Jennifer Lawrence for Leading Actress, Robert De Niro for Supporting Actor, Jacki Weaver for Supporting Actress) for a total of 4 — Silver Linings Playbook is a comedy, and tho’ last year’s winner (The Artist) was a comedy, Oscar prefers drama for Picture and Director.  Also, he didn’t get a DGA nomination.  (DGA and Oscar noms really didn’t match up this year – DGA included Affleck, Bigelow and Les Mis‘ Tom Hooper (who somehow previously won for The King’s Speech over far-more-brilliant director and far-more-zeitgeist work The Social Network) – and don’t they usually go hand-in-hand?  So I’d say it’s between Steven Spielberg (this year makes 7 director noms, with 2 previous wins – for Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan, the latter in another year Picture and Director prizes were split) and Ang Lee (this year makes 3 director noms, with 1 previous win – for Brokeback Mountain, another year Picture and Director awards got split.)  Cos Haneke’s a foreigner (with its 5 nominations, Amour can win under Foreign Language Film and/or Screenplay, or even Actress) and Zeitlin’s a first-timer on a smaller, artier film.  I dunno — Lincoln‘s got 12 noms overall and Pi‘s got 11.  I’ll go with Spielberg for director and Pi‘ll win other big categories.
Prediction: Steven Spielberg for Lincoln

FILM EDITING

Nominees: William Goldenberg for Argo; Tim Squyres for Life of Pi; Michael Kahn for Lincoln; Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers for Silver Linings Playbook; Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg for Zero Dark Thirty
Tho’ Film Editing and Directing noms aren’t really matching up this year (and haven’t necessarily paired up in terms of wins in recent years), I still usually think of these categories together, so am listing Editing here.  And assuming an Argo Best Pic win, I’m going to go with Argo‘s going back and forth between dramatic tension and comedy over the same editor’s work in Zero Dark (which, especially thru the final raid sequence, also maintains the tension, despite knowing the historical outcome.)  Tho’ yeah, there could be vote-splitting (Goldenberg’s previously been nominated for Best Pic noms Seabiscuit and The Insider, and also worked on Affleck’s Gone Baby Gone and Michael Mann’s Ali and Heat.)  If that happens, maybe it’d be Michael Kahn, who’s had 7 previous nominations, most working with Spielberg.  But no, the American Cinema Editors’ awards also double-nominated Goldenberg (tho’ they separate Comedy or Musical from Dramatic – Silver Linings won in the former category) and went with Argo.
Prediction: William Goldenberg for Argo

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Nominees: Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook; Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln; Hugh Jackman for Les Misérables; Joaquin Phoenix for The Master; Denzel Washington for Flight
Daniel Day-Lewis as the 16th US President over Hugh Jackman’s Jean Valjean – this is the one sure thing since Lincoln came out, right?  And a record-breaker – first-time-ever for someone getting 3 Leading Actor awards.
Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Nominees: Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty; Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook; Emmanuelle Riva for Amour;  Quvenzhané Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild; Naomi Watts for The Impossible
Apparently this is the widest-ever age range in the Best Actress category – at 9, Wallis is the youngest-ever nominee in this category, and turning 86 on Oscar night, Riva is the oldest.   Southern Wild‘s little girl was great, but how much is a kid (5 (tho’ lied that she was 6, the minimum age being considered) when she auditioned for the role) really acting? — wouldn’t’ it be more the director drawing out the right performance? (so nominate him — instead of Affleck?) Was the Southern Wild fan base really so strong and wanting to see Wallis on the red carpet that she got in over other actresses?  Or were there really no juicy Oscar-bait roles for women last year?  (I didn’t see many Hollywood films last year, so dunno who to suggest should’ve gotten a spot over her.)  Naomi Watts has a previous nom (for 21 Grams – somehow I thought she had more) but she might be like Kate Winslet – tho’ a terrific actor, a foreigner having to wait thru years of worthy performances till the Academy realises they never actually gotten around to giving her a statue (Winslet won on her 6th nomination, so Watts has a while to go yet.)  Tho’ Riva might be known to film folk for a career reaching back to 1959 classic Hiroshima, Mon Amour, I’d say it’s unlikely an elderly French star would win over an American starlet (and without a show-stopping playing-a-famous-person role like Marion Cotillard (who’s not elderly!) had with Edith Piaf in La Vie en Rose.)  Which is why I gather it’s down to Chastain and Lawrence.  (Tho’ Entertainment Weekly‘s odds show Riva still in there, perhaps benefiting from a split in the young Americans vote? – they give Lawrence a 30% chance of winning over Chastain’s 25% and Riva’s 25%.)  Usually I’d lean towards the dramatic role over the comedic, especially in a lead acting category, but if Argo can win Best Pic without a directing nom like Driving Miss Daisy did, then Jennifer Lawrence can win Best Actress for a comedy like Gwyneth Paltrow did with Shakespeare in Love.  Also, tho’ Chastain is good in Zero Dark, her CIA character’s more internal (save for the one outburst scene with her superior, which they’ll probably use as the nomination clip), while Lawrence’s Silver Linings role allows more expressive opportunities (both comic and serious.)
Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Nominees: Alan Arkin for Argo; Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook; Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master; Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln; Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained
This is a really interesting category as all nominees have previously won Oscars.  I think Jones was considered the front-runner (especially early on with the assumptions of it’s gonna be a Lincoln night) but I’m thinking De Niro hasn’t won for a while (7 nominations since 1975, last won in 1980) and after all the silly comedy roles he’s done in recent years (eg. Analyze This, Meet The Fockers, and their sequels), this one, as the obsessed-with-betting-on-football dad, might be the right mix of comedy involving serious problems to offer a Hollywood heavyweight (heheh – that 1980 win was for Raging Bull, eh) some later-in-career recognition.  (EW suggests Jones has a 30% chance and De Niro 31% — that’s a pretty close call.)
Prediction: Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Nominees: Amy Adams for The Master; Sally Field for Lincoln; Anne Hathaway for Les Misérables; Helen Hunt for The Sessions; Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook
The Sessions is the only film in this category I haven’t seen (it played the filmfest, but I’m not a huge fan of Helen Hunt and already saw a good documentary dealing with the same subject last year (an Australian film called Scarlet Road.)  I think anyone who saw Les Mis won’t soon forget the impact of Anne Hathaway’s heartbreaking rendition of “I Dreamed A Dream” (perhaps the one not-over-directed scene in the whole movie, allowing the emotion to grow thru a single take), the song everyone knows even if they don’t know the most famous musical in the world (isn’t Les Mis’ tagline something to that effect? – see it cos everyone else has!) cos a woman who didn’t look like a singing star became one after singing it on a TV talent show a few years ago.  Plus we all know (thanks to pre-release hype) that the movie wasn’t made the usual lipsynch-to-playback way but all the singing was filmed live – so doesn’t that make the performance all the more impressive?  And Sally Field already has two (and isn’t De Niro.)
Prediction: Anne Hathaway for Les Misérables

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees: Michael Haneke for Amour; Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained; Michael Gatins for Flight; Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola for Moonrise Kingdom; Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty
This is a tough one.  The Writers Guild award went to Mark Boal for Zero Dark, tho’ the film’s come under fire for making it look like waterboarding led to Bin Laden (I don’t think it does – tho’ it certainly could’ve done with including something about how different agencies looked upon torture at the time – not even an incidental character suggests that perhaps other methods of interrogation work better, it’s just accepted that this is how they work.)  I dunno when the WGA voting closed (the winners were announced a week ago) or how having Amour and Django in the Oscar mix instead of Looper and The Master affects things.  Amour is probably famed European filmmaker Haneke’s most accessible script, but even with a foreign language film getting a Best Picture nod, voters will probably limit his take to the Foreign category.  I enjoy Tarantino characters and dialogue and all, but Django (like most of his stuff) is rather on the excessive side.  Without any other noms, quirky Moonrise doesn’t have a chance.  I’m gonna go with Zero Dark Thirty over Amour – maybe cos this would be a way of awarding it something (he previously won for The Hurt Locker (as writer and producer), so maybe this’d be a way of recognising Team Bigelow?)
Prediction: Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees: Chris Tario for Argo; Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild; David Magee for Life of Pi, Tony Kushner for Lincoln, David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook
Tho’ I’ve seen all five, the only previous material from which films in this category were adapted I’m familiar with is Yann Martel’s novel.  Not that I think people vote for the adaptation, it’s more the film and whether it matches up with Best Picture.  So this is another Lincoln or Argo category, right?  WGA gave it to Argo (based on a 2007 Wired article), but I’m going with famous playwright Tony Kushner adapting historian/Sunday shows commentator Doris Kearns-Goodwin’s well-known book, Team of Rivals.
Prediction: Tony Kushner for Lincoln

I’m too tired.  Must go faster, be more direct!

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Nominees: Anna Karenina; Django Unchained; Life of Pi; Lincoln; Skyfall
I would love to see 10-time nominee Roger Deakins win for his gorgeous shadows-and-silhouettes work on the Bond movie, but gather the word is it’ll be Life of Pi, which had an effective mix of CGI’d “reality” and surreal beauty.  (Extra note: only 2 of the 9 Best Pic noms were shot on 35mm (Django & Lincoln.)  Alas, the cinemas I saw them at screened them on DCP.)
Prediction: Life of Pi

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Nominees: Anna Karenina; The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey; Les Misérables; Life of Pi; Lincoln
Looks like they changed the name of this category from “Art Direction”.  If there were still a Lincoln sweep expected, this’d be easier.  Think I’ll still go with closest-to-Best-Pic-possibility of the group, historic Lincoln.
Prediction: Lincoln

COSTUME DESIGN

Nominees: Anna Karenina; Les Misérables; Lincoln; Mirror Mirror; Snow White and the Huntsman
What’s the recent record for historical over fantasy?  I dunno – a Best Pic nominee or the colourful and lavish (what I gather from pictures I’ve seen – didn’t see the film) “stylised version of czarist Russian fashion” (according to EW.) I’ll go with Anna Karenina over Les Misérables (ha – watch it be the other historical one, Lincoln.)
Prediction: Anna Karenina

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Nominees: Hitchcock; The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey; Les Misérables
Another category name adjustment – now specifically with hair!  I had no desire to see The Hobbit.  I loved the costumes and hair in Hitchcock.  But think it’ll go to the Best Pic-nominated option (a better reason than EW‘s “It takes a lot of work to make Anne Hathway and Hugh Jackman look as ugly as they do in Les Misérables“?)
Prediction: Les Misérables

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Nominees: Amour (Austria); Kon-Tiki (Norway); No (Chile); A Royal Affair (Denmark); War Witch (Canada)
If Amour isn’t translated to “Love”, I dunno what was wrong with just using the original French title of Rebelle — that’s what “War Witch” was released as here in English Canada.  Norway’s entry hasn’t played in Vancouver, but I saw all the others – all very good.  But what does it matter having seen any of them when one has other nominations, including Best Picture?
Prediction: Amour

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Nominees: 5 Broken Cameras; The Gatekeepers; How To Survive A Plague; The Invisible War; Searching For Sugar Man
All but The Gatekeepers has played Vancouver (tho’ heard about it on one of my NPR podcasts, so must have North American release soon.)  I could’ve seen The Invisible War at the filmfest or its short run at the VIFC  but didn’t (they even brought it and two other noms back for one matinee show each this past week – unfortunately the one day I couldn’t attend was the day they were playing the one I hadn’t seen), and my library hold is still #23 on 4 copies.  Heard one of the 5 Broken Cameras directors was stopped for questioning at LAX when he was flying in ahead of the show (and that Michael Moore made some calls and all was well.)  Doesn’t matter tho’, cos I think everyone who saw or even heard about Searching For Sugar Man wants to see its humble subject, forgotten musician Rodriguez, get further due at the Oscars.  Also, it’s just such a great story of (re)discovery.
Prediction: Searching For Sugar Man

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Nominees: Inocente; Kings Point; Mondays at Racine; Open Heart; Redemption
This category was not included in the touring Oscar Shorts program that played in Vancouver, and I have made no effort to seek out the films or even info about them online.  There was a brief interview on Democracy Now! with the makers of Redemption, about New York City binners, but I think they used to work on the show so that doesn’t make them high-profile frontrunners.  EW says the category is a “toss up”, hedging its bets by mentioning two titles: “we give the edge to Innocente, the moving story of a homeless teenage artist in California, over Kings Point, about a Florida retirement community.  If old-age-themed Amour starts taking unexpected prizes, maybe, like that short about the little girl in India the year of Slumdog Millionaire, the shorts about elderly folks (Kings Point and Live Action nominee Henry) will stand a better chance.  I dunno that EW‘s shorts predix record is so hot, but okay, Californian artists might appeal to Hollywood, I’ll go with Innocente.
Prediction: Innocente

ANIMATED FEATURE

Nominees: Brave; Frankenweenie; ParaNorman; The Pirates! Band of Misfits; Wreck-It Ralph
I saw Brave in 35mm in a theatre last summer – with horrible projection, but was a good movie.  Could assume Pixar would continue its Oscar reign.  I had plenty of opportunity to see Wreck-It Ralph on the big screen after the nominations were announced but really had no desire to see it (like Cars, a computer animated video game kid movie just doesn’t appeal to me – those ad posters at my bus stop didn’t help.)  But now I hear it’s pegged to win (is it from Pixar too?)  It won the Annie award for Best Feature and Directing.  The other three, all stop-motion, I saw on DVDs from the library.  Tho’ Hugh Grant voiced the misfit pirate, that one’s story and characters weren’t especially outstanding.  Tim Burton’s B&W ’50s-styled frankenpet tale and from-the-makers-of-Coraline ParaNorman about bullied outsiders saving their town from a 300-year-old witch’s curse both had fun movie references.  One of the DVDs had a trailer for Wreck-It Ralph that gave me the impression it had way more to it than the stupid-looking poster, but by then it was only playing out the valley and I was outta time.  Of the 4 I saw, I think I liked Norman best, but if Ralph‘s the better bet, better go with that.
Prediction: Wreck-It Ralph

ANIMATED SHORT

Nominees: Adam and Dog; Fresh Guacamole; Head Over Heels; Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare”; Paperman
These shorts I did see (on Blu-ray on the big screen with an audience.)  All dialogue-free, all very good.  Doubt the Simpsons short (of Maggie Simpson keeping an eye out for a butterfly at an Ayn Rand daycare – heheh) has a chance – it’s nothing much different story- or animation-wise from what’s on the TV show.  Fresh Guacamole is 2 minutes of colourful stop-motion visual surprises (like a chop of a vegetable producing dice.)  Clever and poignant Head over Heels (the only non-US production, from the UK) could fit into the theme of aging, with its longtime couple living together yet apart (one on the floor, the other on the ceiling.)  I think it’s down to my two favourites: the paper airplane romance Paperman and somewhat wandering but beautiful evolution of Adam and Dog.  The former’s Disney, and I hear the Academy likes to go indie with the shorts, so let’s say first man’s best friend will be first.
Prediction: Adam and Dog

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Nominees: Asad; Buzkashi Boys; Curfew; Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw); Henry
Also got to see all these (same touring program as Animated – why Vancouver didn’t get the Documentary Shorts, I dunno.)  The Belgian one has camera elements that might appeal to film industry voters – EW lists it as its bet.. while also naming the Somali refugee-cast Asad and Canadian (tho’ they call it French – well that was the language spoken in it) old-aged-themed Henry.  I agree the fable-like Asad may have an edge, but thinking back to The New Tenants and The Shore (which I shoulda known would win last year, even tho’ I personally didn’t think it was the best), I’m going to go with the slick Curfew, a compact, stylin’, darkly-tinged, well-acted story of a downer guy babysitting his estranged sister’s precocious daughter (and the lone English-language piece.)
Prediction: Curfew

ORIGINAL SCORE

Nominees: Dario Marianelli for Anna Karenina; Alexandre Desplat for Argo; Mychael Danna for Life of Pi; John Williams for Lincoln; Thomas Newman for Skyfall
All familiar movie composer names, tho’ this is Danna’s first Oscar nomination (the others have multiples.)  Maybe it’s just rooting for the Canadian, but I’m gonna go with Danna’s Indian-flavoured Life of Pi music.
Prediction: Mychael Danna for Life of Pi

ORIGINAL SONG

Nominees: “Before My Time” from Chasing Ice; “Everbody Needs A Best Friend” from Ted; “Pi’s Lullaby” from Life of Pi; “Skyfall” from Skyfall; “Suddenly” from Les Misérables
As much as it’d be fun to see host Seth MacFarlane win for Ted, Adele will be adding another trophy to her shelf, right?  And she’ll be there to perform it, right?  (Cos they didn’t let us hear the 2 (only 2 – that hardly takes any time compared to 5) nominated songs on last year’s show – can’t believe they could only come up with 2 songs and passed on including muppets in the show.)
Prediction: “Skyfall” from Skyfall

SOUND EDITING

Nominees: Argo; Django Unchained; Life of Pi; Skyfall; Zero Dark Thirty
I have no idea.  Would say it’s between higher-up-on-the-Best-Picture list Argo and Life of Pi, but EW says Skyfall.  Ah, go with Argo.
Prediction: Argo

SOUND MIXING

Nominees: Argo; Les Misérables; Life of Pi; Lincoln; Skyfall
Okay, this one I reason that cos it was a musical involving live singing, that’d be harder than usual sound mixing goes, so Les Mis will get the recognition.
Prediction: Les Misérables

VISUAL EFFECTS

Nominees: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey; Life of Pi; Marvel’s The Avengers; Prometheus; Snow White and the Huntsman
Only one of these I saw was the Best Pic nom.  But I think if there’s only one with a Best Pic nom, and it was the one with the lifelike tiger and other animals in it, along with water and reflections and stuff, it’s the obvious one to take Visual Effects.
Prediction: Life of Pi

Okay, gotta post this (it’s 11:30am Sunday.)  So I’m going with 3 guys getting their 3rd, eh? (well, Spielberg’s won others as producer, but his 3rd for Directing – plus 3rd for Day-Lewis and De Niro.)  Will host Seth MacFarlane (who’s made plenty of fun of stars like Affleck and Hunt in his animated TV series Family Guy) sing in Brian or Stewie’s voice?  Break out the homemades!