Oscars Predix 2014

Okay, time for another Oscar Predix post.  Cos there’s still a coupla can’t-be-with-me friends who might check.  Have had a rather challenging time of late and wasn’t really feeling up for doing my annual Oscar Night.  But then reckoned I’d probably regret skipping an over-20-years tradition of the annual festive night out with likeminded folk.  Also, I don’t have TV (or home internet – so, as has been the case the past few years since the neighbours with unprotected wifi went from about six to one to none, this is being composed offline day before, adding images and maybe a check of Vegas odds when posting, hopefully soon after my Saturday night shift.)

So, despite a lack of enthusiasm and poor major-release viewing record (R.I.P. Hollywood Theatre), (not to mention a considerably reduced ability to type/mouse – ow), I’ve got a few open tabs here of some recent guild winners (had not been keeping track) and Oscar-related articles (still totally recommend Steve Pond’s The Wrap), picked up a copy of Entertainment Weekly‘s annual “And the Winners Will Be…” issue, and have an Oscars app fired up, so let’s see what I come up with…

When the nominees were announced January 16, I’d only seen one of the nine titles up for Best Picture (Philomena), and that was only cos I’d happened to’ve been given a pass to a preview screening back in November (thus skipping planned first-timer Croatian entry at the EUFF – yeah, in the interest of hoping to keep such passes coming my way, went for will-have-other-chances-to-see over one-time-only.)  Though a January break in work allowed the time, ill health and other concerns kinda got in the way of any real effort to “catch up”.  Hadn’t seen some shoulda-known-could-be-contenders at VIFF last fall, and with Festival Cinemas sold to Sineplex, Vancouver venues not owned by broke-the-BC-Projectionists-union entities have been further reduced.  (Been reckoning it’s time for a blog post reconsidering how I view movies – but don’t hold your breath.) But I always say you don’t have to’ve seen the movies to predict what’s gonna win (tho’ it sure can help.)

PICTURE

Nominated: American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, 12 Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street

Though am a fan of Payne and Scorsese, haven’t seen theirs.  Also, despite stalking my local library’s Quick View shelf (of all the DVD holds I’d placed as soon as I thought to and could, have only had Dirty Wars come in), haven’t seen Captain Phillips either (which, let’s face it, is one you’d wanna see on the big screen anyway.)  But I gather it’s down to a three-way race between Hustle, Gravity and 12 Years (EW lists their respective chances at 16%, 19% and 18%, which just goes to show that having more than five Best Pic noms hardly bodes for a real majority winner, cos five evenly divvy up to those kinda percentages anyway.)  Comedies and sci-fi/fantasy aren’t usually the big winner (recent exceptions being The Artist (and before that Shakespeare in Love) and LOTR3, respectively) and Steve McQueen’s excellent horrors-of-slavery drama seemed the obvious pick… till the PGA award turned out to be a tie.  Remember presenter Mark Wahlberg’s surprise last year (“no B.S.!”) when there was a tie for Sound Editing?  The Academy claims that with its run-off system, a Best Pic tie is not an option.  I gather the latest surge is towards Gravity, but I think I’m going to go with its getting all the technical stuff (including Director) while 12 Years A Slave will take the top prize.  Or are Americans still not ready to accept their history of violent oppression?  Gee, the top category’s the toughest one this year.
Best Picture Prediction: 12 Years A Slave.

DIRECTING

Nominated: David O. Russell for American Hustle, Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity, Alexander Payne for Nebraska, Steve McQueen for 12 Years A Slave, Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street

Since the Academy’s been known to split Best Picture and Director in recent years (last year and 2005 to Ang Lee, then there was Polanski in 2002, Soderbergh in 2000, Spielberg in ’98), I’m going to assume the Academy’s way of recognising the top two Best Pic contenders this year will be to go with 12 Years A Slave for Best Pic and Cuarón for Director.  Russell may be the current “actor’s director” (his casts keep garnering noms in lead and supporting cats) with his third-film-in-a-row directing nom, but I felt like American Hustle was kinda like P.T. Anderson trying to be Scorsese (who, since The Departed won, is not “owed”, or Wolf of Wall Street might have more buzz)  Cuarón (previously nom’d for Children of Men‘s Adapted Screenplay and Editing, and foreign-language Y tu mamá también‘s Original Screenplay) is hot with blockbuster frontrunner Gravity and a new TV series.  Plus the DGA winner (which has matched up with Oscar the last decade, except when winner Ben Affleck wasn’t even nominated last year) was Cuarón.
Best Director Prediction:  Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity

WRITING

Nominated – Original Screenplay: American Hustle, Blue Jasmine, Dallas Buyers Club, Her, Nebraska
Nominated – Adapted Screenplay: Before Midnight, Captain Phillips, Philomena, 12 Years A Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street

I think Woody Allen’s in the same boat as Meryl Streep in that they’re both perennial nominees who, after many years since their last win, got some 21st century recognition, and now, tho’ they may continue to break their own records racking up nominations (this year’s Allen’s 16th writing nom, Streep’s 18th for acting), won’t get another for awhile, if ever again.  And considering voting was still going on with the most recent resurgence of Woody scandal, not to mention the lack of other big, non-acting noms for Jasmine, think we can count him out.  Glad to see Richard Linklater (and actor collaborators Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke) get recognised for the third in his Before series of intelligent, talky romantic dramas, but with no other noms, that’s all he’s getting.  Because the Writers Guild and Academy membership don’t always line up, it’s hard to use WGA awards as a guide (this year’s winners: Her and Captain Phillips.)  I usually reason that the top Best Picture contenders split the writing prizes — ie. the top winner gets the corresponding screenplay award, the kinda next down gets the other (eg. The King’s Speech and The Social Network) — or that the Best Pic-nom’d indie with an Original Screenplay nod that doesn’t have a chance at other major-category recognition gets it here (eg. Juno, Little Miss Sunshine, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Lost in Translation.)  And am kinda going with both here.  As much as I thought Philomena‘s script was fab (especially the way it contrasted the characters), I think Steve Coogan will have to be happy (at least for now) with being “Oscar Nominee Steve Coogan” and Adapted will go to 12 Years A Slave, which brought this amazing 19th-century memoir to the attention of modern Americans.  And, I’m glad to see that Spike Jonze’s refreshingly original romance Her is apparently the frontrunner.
Best Original Screenplay Prediction: Spike Jonze for Her
Best Adapted Screenplay Prediction: John Ridley for 12 Years A Slave

ACTING

Nominated – Actor in a Lead Role: Christian Bale in American Hustle, Bruce Dern in Nebraska, Leonardo DiCaprio in The Wolf of Wall Street, Chiwetel Ejiofor in 12 Years A Slave, Matthew McConnaughey in Dallas Buyers Club
Nominated – Actress in a Lead Role: Amy Adams in American Hustle, Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine, Sandra Bullock in Gravity, Judi Dench in Philomena, Meryl Streep in August: Osage County
Nominated – Actor in a Supporting Role: Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips, Bradley Cooper in American Hustle, Michael Fassbender in 12 Years A Slave, Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street, Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club
Nominated – Actress in a Supporting Role: Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine, Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle, Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years A Slave, Julia Roberts in August: Osage County, June Squibb in Nebraska

Okay, I can skim over these categories cos they’re all pretty much sure things, right?  Chiwetel Ejiofor was riveting, but actors (largest voting contingent?) love a reinvention/comeback, and everyone wants to see how wackadoo McConnaughey’s speech’ll be, eh?  EW‘s percentages show DiCaprio gaining (at 24%, over Ejiofor’s 20%, but behind McConnaughey’s 30%), but he’ll have plenty more chances.  This is Adams’ fifth nom and Blanchett and Dench (also up for roles with both dramatic and comedic aspects) have previous Supporting wins (and Streep and Bullock previous Lead wins), but Blanchett has the greater buzz (EW says 35% over Adams’ 25%) for a more engrossing role (written and directed by Woody Allen to boot.)  Tho’ LGBT roles aren’t sure winners, Leto’s a lock, right?  Probably the only possible upset is the continuing Lawrence lovefest (c’mon, she did just win for Lead last year) to edge out new find Nyong’o (EW has Nyong’o at 28%, Lawrence 26%; odds check shows Nyong’o, tho’ not sure reading fractions right.)  Nah, gonna go with SAG winners matching up.
Best Actor in a Leading Role Prediction: Matthew McConnaughey in Dallas Buyers Club
Best Actress in a Leading Role Prediction: Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine
Best Actor in a Supporting Role Prediction: Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club
Best Actress in a Supporting Role Prediction: Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years A Slave

CINEMATOGRAPHY, EDITING & EFFECTS

Nominated – Cinematography: The Grandmaster, Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, Prisoners
Nominated – Film Editing: American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, 12 Years A Slave
Nominated – Visual Effects: Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Iron Man 3, The Lone Ranger, Star Trek: Into Darkness

The ASC (which had 7 noms – same 5 plus Captain Phillips and 12 Years A Slave) went with Gravity, but I’m more weighing the Oscar trend of late to reward FX-laden camera work in Best Pic noms like Life of Pi, Hugo, Inception and Avatar.  (With Deakins’ nod, a Canadian aside: yay for Denis Villenueve and Jean-Marc Vallée – Canadians’ American debuts getting noticed – too bad we’re missing Sarah Polley in Documentary Feature.)  Film Editing usually lines up with Directing (well, ‘cept that year a non-major-cat-nom’d Bourne film got in there) and Visual Effects, well, I might’ve seen the latest Iron Man (alas, on video instead of a big screen (oh, wait, that was another library hold that did come in in time – probably cos, like Dirty Wars, I wasn’t anticipating Oscar but just wanted to see it) but really, despite Downey Jr., did we need another of those?) and Star Trek (great score, BTW) but I also saw Gravity (how long was that opening shot? wow!)  (By the way, the pre-Big Night Sci-Tech awards are this year honouring those who’ve worked in film processing (that’s actual, physical film, as, alas, digital takes over) – see: The Wrap: Academy’s Sci-Tech Awards to Celebrate the Dying Art of Film.)  (Also, more Best Pic noms shot on film than I expected (only Dallas, Her and Nebraska (yeah, in B&W – “film look” effects added later – jeez) totally on digital – Captain used 16mm, Gravity 65mm, Philomena flashbacks were on Super16) – see NYU Tisch School of the Arts’ blog: Special Programs, 35mm Filmmaking Part II: Best Picture Formats.)
Best Cinematography Prediction: Gravity
Best Film Editing Predicton: Gravity
Best Visual Effects Prediction: Gravity

DESIGN & MAKEUP

Nominated – Production Design: American Hustle, Gravity, The Great Gatsby, Her, 12 Years A Slave
Nominated – Costume Design: American Hustle, The Grandmaster, The Great Gatsby, The Invisible Woman, 12 Years A Slave
Nominated – Makeup & Hairstyling: Dallas Buyers Club, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, The Lone Ranger

Ah, right, it’s no longer “Art Direction” and “& Hairstyling” has been added.  And the Costumes category’s back to being dominated by historical rather than fantasy (not sure if The Grandmaster qualifies as the latter – only Costume nom didn’t see.)  And I actually have to have “Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa” as a possible search term that could bring someone to my blog?  (Tho’ the Academy actually had to screen it (see: The Wrap: ‘All Is Lost’ & ‘Bad Grandpa’? Oscar Screenings Make For Strange Double Features) — and the it-was-bad-enough-sitting-thru-the-trailer Lone Ranger.)  Apparently the Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild Awards have period and contemporary categories, as well as Special Effects, which is what Bad Grandpa won for – Dallas took period.  The Costume Designers Guild also has fantasy, contemporary and period – the latter won by 12 Years over Hustle and Gatsby (tho’ that guild’s choices and Oscars don’t match up very often, interesting to note.)  Here’s where the danger of American Hustle not winning any of the big categories might get voters to consider its ’70s setting and so give it something for that (or do they really do that? – might it turn out Hustle just gets shut out? – or will acting branch members be pushing for something bigger like Russell for writing and directing so many of them?)  But if voters are still mailed DVDs, the extras on The Great Gatsby could be the convincer for its two noms (or is Gravity gonna sweep all its tech categories?)  The only one of these three I’m vaguely confident about is Dallas Buyers Club for makeup.  Though let’s just check… ah, seems Vegas odds are with Gatsby.
Best Production Design Prediction: The Great Gatsby
Best Costume Design Prediction: The Great Gatsby
Best Makeup & Hairstyling Prediction: Dallas Buyers Club

SOUND

Nominated – Sound Editing: All Is Lost, Captain Phillips, Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Lone Survivor
Nominated – Sound Mixing: Captain Phillips, Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Inside Llewyn Davis, Lone Survivor

The Motion Picture Sound Editors divide up their awards into so many sub-categories (eg. Sound Effects & Foley and Dialogue & ADR, plus separate categories for Animated, Foreign, Documentary, Musical), it’s hard to tell what the industry thought was best – looks like Gravity and Captain Phillips got the top couple.  And then Mixing has more to do with the dialogue and score?  So, action in space or water?  Tho’ you’re not s’posed to hear anything in space, gonna go with Gravity on these.
Best Sound Editing Prediction: Gravity
Best Sound Mixing Prediction: Gravity

MUSIC

Nominated – Original Score: John Williams for The Book Thief, Steven Price for Gravity, William Butler and Owen Pallett for Her, Alexandre Desplat for Philomena, Thomas Newman for Saving Mr. Banks
Nominated – Original Song: “Happy” from Despicable Me 2, “Let It Go” from Frozen, “The Moon Song” from Her, “Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom

And then there was the nominated-yet-not-nominated song from the Christian movie nobody’s heard of except enough nominators who got some kind of overly heavy sell from its composer who also happens to be a music branch executive committee member (see: Hollywood Reporter: Academy Disqualifies Oscar-Nominated Song “Alone Yet Not Alone”) and no replacement nominee was offered.  Also, for the first time, the Academy had a separate concert to showcase the Music category nominees (so no songs to be performed on the Oscar Night telecast at all? – ah, no, apparently all four are – see: The Wrap: Oscar Concert: The Academy Plays a New Tune, and It’s (Mostly) a Hit.)  “The Moon Song” was the only song nom I’ve heard (another nice song sung by Scarlett Johansson – the previous nom she sang was last year’s closing credits piece on doc Chasing Ice.)  By the time I got around to thinking I might see Animated Feature nominee Frozen, there were “sing-along” presentations as well as 3D screenings, so reckon its song is a lock.  I’d guess the score’d be between the three with a Best Pic nom, and so, uh, another one for Gravity?
Best Original Score Prediction: Steven Price for Gravity
Best Original Song Prediction: “Let It Go” from Frozen

FOREIGN, ANIMATED & DOCUMENTARY FEATURES

Nominated – Foreign Language Film: The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium), The Great Beauty (Italy), The Hunt (Denmark), The Missing Picture (Cambodia), Omar (Palestine)
Nominated – Animated Feature: The Croods, Despicable Me 2, Ernest & Celestine, Frozen, The Wind Rises
Nominated – Documentary Feature: The Act of Killing, Cutie and the Boxer, Dirty Wars, The Square, 20 Feet From Stardom

Okay, lessee.  All the foreign films have played Vancouver (Omar just opened this weekend, The Missing Picture was at VIFF and will be part of Diverciné at the Cinémathèque in the coming weeks), and there’s been opportunity for all the doc features too (The Square was at the recent Victoria filmfest since being nominated.)  The only animated feature yet to play is the Miyazaki (s’posedly his last – tho’ he did win for Spirited Away.)  Which is all to say, though docs and foreign films are a huge part of my cinematic diet, and I coulda seen nearly all of ’em, well, no, I haven’t.  I would love to see Vinterberg’s tension-filled The Hunt win (was one of my top films at VIFF 2012), and I understand it still has a good chance, but I think the frontrunner’s been the Italian Beauty, which is in current release (and described by EW as “Felliniesque”.)  Denmark’s also a distant 6th behind Italy on noms and wins, tho’ Mads Mikkelsen might be more recognisable to Americans (he was in a Bond film, after all) than the Italians.  Argh, I’m waffling.  Loved the delightful French misfit friends Ernest et Célestine (the only nom I’ve seen in its category), but seems Frozen‘s the one to beat.  And since The Act of Killing combines a tough topic (the “Indonesian killing fields”) with surreal cinema-as-therapy (as it were – gets former death squad participants to express their experiences by making a movie), think that’ll win over docs that deal with arts and war/revolution separately.
Best Foreign Language Film Prediction: The Great Beauty
Best Animated Feature Prediction: Frozen
Best Documentary Feature Prediction: The Act of Killing

SHORTS

Nominated – Live Action Short: Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me), Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything, Helium, Pitääkö mun kaikki hoitaa? (Do I Have To Take Care Of Everything?), The Voorman Problem
Nominated – Animated Short: Feral, Get A Horse!, Mr. Hublot, Possessions, Room on the Broom
Nominated – Documentary Short: CaveDigger, Facing Fear, Karama Has No Walls, The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life, Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

I’ve found that seeing the shorts can help predict what the Academy’d go for.  Tho’ the Oscar Nominated Shorts 2014 touring program of Live Action and Animation came thru Vancouver, only saw the Live Action.  Which is okay, cos based on the fact the “lost reel” Disney short was a big thing at an industry event last fall (premiere plus master class with director Laruen MacMullen – “the first woman to direct Mickey Mouse”), I’d assume that’ll win in the Animated.  In the Live Action category, I’d say the French Just Before Losing Everything is the strongest (not the kinda-overdone Spanish child soldiers one, That Wasn’t Me, which is EW‘s pick), but after the lesser The Shore won a few years ago, I realise that checking the credits for known names can be important too.  So I’m going with the comic The Voorman Problem, cos it has recognisable actors (head hobbit Martin Freeman and a devilish Tom Hollander), plus Kevin Spacey is thanked in the end credits and it’s the only one in English.  As for the doc shorts (which never seem to make it to Vancouver while Seattle gets ’em), let’s go with Vegas odds which predict it’ll be The Lady in Number 6, which, according to EW (also going for that one), features “a 109-year-old piano-playing Holocaust survivor.”
Best Live Action Short Prediction: The Voorman Problem
Best Animated Short Prediction: Get A Horse!
Best Documentary Short Prediction: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

And, hey, that’s it – all categories covered.  So seems I’m going with Gravity being the big winner but not of the top prize? (and nothing for Russell’s Hustle?)  Should be able to get this posted well before Sunday comes (and the snow, s’posedly – hear rain’s predicted for L.A. – will there be a canoped red carpet?)  Enjoyed Ellen DeGeneres last time she hosted (how many years ago was that? recall it was the first year the Canadian NTN trivia feed didn’t match up at the bar, so instead of concentrating on winning trivia, just had to watch the show.)  Will Peter O’Toole or Philip Seymour Hoffman be the final In Memoriam image?  Might they include Roger Ebert? (he had a screenplay credit – tho’ no Oscar nom, certainly influential as a critic.)  (That segment is usually put together weeks ahead of the show, but they could s’posedly re-edit to include Harold Ramis – see: The Wrap: The Oscars’ ‘In Memoriam’ Problem: Who’ll Make The Cut? and Entertainment Weekly: Explainer – How the Oscar ‘in memoriam’ segment is decided.)  Sigh.